Lebanese Army Faces Challenge of Protecting Stability

Lebanese Army soldiers take part in a parade marking the 72nd Army Day, at a military academy in Fayadyeh, near Beirut, August 1, 2017. (Reuters/ Aziz Taher)
Lebanese Army soldiers take part in a parade marking the 72nd Army Day, at a military academy in Fayadyeh, near Beirut, August 1, 2017. (Reuters/ Aziz Taher)
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Lebanese Army Faces Challenge of Protecting Stability

Lebanese Army soldiers take part in a parade marking the 72nd Army Day, at a military academy in Fayadyeh, near Beirut, August 1, 2017. (Reuters/ Aziz Taher)
Lebanese Army soldiers take part in a parade marking the 72nd Army Day, at a military academy in Fayadyeh, near Beirut, August 1, 2017. (Reuters/ Aziz Taher)

Lebanon celebrates this first of August the 73rd anniversary of the establishment of its army. This year’s celebration has a special meaning as it coincides with major achievements by the army in the fight against terrorism and the ousting of terrorist groups from the eastern Lebanese borders.

The Lebanese Army has proved its combat effectiveness, starting with the battle against Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr al-Bared camp in northern Lebanon in 2007, leading to the fierce battle against ISIS which took place in Arsal on the eastern borders in August last year.

In the last three years, the army has recorded a series of achievements that have raised the interest of major international powers, which are now seeking to strengthen the Lebanese military institutions by providing it with training, arms and information capabilities.

The qualitative operations carried out by the army in recent years are the result of the bulk of military, security and intelligence work that the organization has achieved.

A military source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the most significant achievement under the leadership of General Joseph Aoun was in the battle of “Fajr al-Jouroud” in Arsal, in addition to stopping the flow of car bombs inside the country and easing the security pressure on Lebanon.

The sources emphasized that the army’s fast victory in Arsal has allowed it to focus its efforts on the protection of internal security, by chasing terrorist networks and uncovering dormant cells in successful preemptive operations.

Although the achievements of the army are a source of confidence for the Lebanese, the army has many challenges ahead, according to its leader General Joseph Aoun.

The military sources noted that among important challenges facing the army were security concerns and the protection of the borders, to prevent the risk of the infiltration of armed militants into Lebanon.

The army is also facing the threat of any Israeli attack on Lebanon’s southern border, and chasing espionage networks operating for Israel.

The director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, Dr. Sami Nader, said that the army “has become the last resort for the Lebanese and is constantly present to protect national sovereignty, and thus lacks a single political decision to extend its absolute authority over the entire Lebanese territory.”

Since 2006, Lebanon has been trying to develop a defense strategy that would give the state a decision on war and peace, and prevent any weapons from being left outside the legitimacy. However, all dialogues have so far failed because Hezbollah refuses to handover its weapons.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”