OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
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OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC and partners, known as OPEC+, has agreed to 100 percent compliance with the cut deal, ruling out any immediate, additional increase in crude output, effectively rebuffing US President Donald Trump's calls for action to cool the market.

Following the ministerial meeting in Algiers, Oman's Oil Minister Mohammed al-Rumhy and his Kuwaiti counterpart Bakhit al-Rashidi told reporters after Sunday's talks that producers had agreed they needed to focus on reaching 100 percent compliance with production cuts agreed in June.

That effectively means compensating for falling Iranian production, however, Rumhy said the exact mechanism for doing so had not been discussed.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in his opening remarks that the past year had been a historic one for the Organization, as well as the global oil industry, with the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ helping accelerate the return of balance to the global oil market, bringing more optimism to the industry, which in turn, has had a positive effect on the global economy and trade worldwide.

He added that the importance of these recent developments, specifically in terms of helping achieve sustainable market stability, is clearly vital across all time-frames.

"Stability today begets stability tomorrow, which is vital given that our industry remains a growth business, with oil continuing to be a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future," Barkindo stated.

Meanwhile, UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail Mohamed al Mazrouei asserted that the industry is in a much healthier place than when the historic Algiers meeting took place on 28 September 2016.

The Minister explained that fundamentals are strong and “we have seen a return of a greater degree of balance to the market. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have demonstrated what can be achieved when working together. I’d like to commend all participating countries for their historic efforts in this regard."

There is no doubt that this committee has played an important role in contributing to many successes, he indicated, adding that proper monitoring of conditions in the oil market is an essential component of transparent and effective work.

“The JMMC continues to fulfill its mandate commendably...Despite our major achievements towards market stability, we face new uncertainties today. Many of these uncertainties are factors beyond our control; nevertheless, they need to be continuously monitored in order to build on the progress made to date," he added.

Mazrouei called for continuing the discussions on further means of institutionalizing the cooperation.

For his part, Saudi Energy Minister, who is also Chairman of OPEC's JMMC, Khalid Falih stated that in the 10th meeting of the JMMC, the attendees discussed the excellent results achieved through collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

“I reiterated the critical role oil plays in strengthening the global economy and our keen desire to cushion economies of developing nations,” he added.

The meeting also discussed current oil market conditions and future plans to extend the work of the JMMC to continue to monitor changing conditions in order to ensure sufficient supplies of oil to consumers, Falih indicated.

“Our attention is shifting to 2019. We have been briefed on the prospect of 2019 inventory builds which result from significant supply growth from non-member counties,” Falih said.

Falih said returning to 100 percent compliance was the main objective and should be achieved in the next two to three months, although he refrained from specifying how that could be done.

Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said no immediate output increase was necessary, although he believed a trade war between China and the United States as well as US sanctions on Iran were creating new challenges for oil markets.

“Oil demand will be declining in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. So far, we have decided to stick to our June agreements,” Novak said.

He admitted there were a number of uncertainties regarding several issues, which can be seen in global economic markets.

“We will have to work very, very, very hard together in order to achieve the goals and ensure the implementation of our common arrangements in order to achieve equilibrium in the market," asserted the Russian minister.



Norway's Sovereign Fund Proposes Deep Cuts to US Treasury Holdings

A general view of the Norwegian central bank in Oslo, Norway March 6, 2018. Picture taken March 6, 2018. REUTERS/Gwladys Fouche
A general view of the Norwegian central bank in Oslo, Norway March 6, 2018. Picture taken March 6, 2018. REUTERS/Gwladys Fouche
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Norway's Sovereign Fund Proposes Deep Cuts to US Treasury Holdings

A general view of the Norwegian central bank in Oslo, Norway March 6, 2018. Picture taken March 6, 2018. REUTERS/Gwladys Fouche
A general view of the Norwegian central bank in Oslo, Norway March 6, 2018. Picture taken March 6, 2018. REUTERS/Gwladys Fouche

The manager of Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund has proposed significantly cutting its exposure to US Treasuries as part of a wider shake-up of its bond investments to improve returns, according to a letter published this week.

Norges Bank Investment Management has recommended reducing its weighting to government bonds within its benchmark bond index to 50% from 70%, with US Treasuries, the biggest holding, getting the biggest cut, according to the letter.

The changes would mean cutting nearly $80 billion from the fund's current holdings of about $215 billion of US Treasuries as of the end of June, according to Reuters calculations.

Government bond markets have been under pressure recently, with long-term borrowing costs soaring as rising inflation and government debt levels spooked investors.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, owns on average 1.5% of ⁠all listed companies ⁠globally. Its scale means that portfolio decisions can influence broader market flows. Any cuts to its bond holdings are unlikely to be implemented until several months into 2027 at the earliest.

The letter containing the fund's proposals was sent in response to questions from Norway's finance ministry about the wealth fund's investment strategy for bonds.

Norges Bank IM said it would await the ministry's response, and any changes would be done gradually to limit market impact and transaction costs.

The proposals will form part of recommendations to the ministry in January.

They will be discussed ⁠as part of the fund's annual white paper process next spring, after which the ministry will make a final recommendation to parliament which will then hold a hearing, a Norges Bank IM spokesperson said.

"We recommend that the government subindex of the bond index be reduced from 70% to 50%," Ida Wolden Bache, governor of Norges Bank, and Norges Bank IM CEO Nicolai Tangen wrote in the letter.

"A government share of 50% will be sufficient to cover the liquidity needs, including in periods of turbulence in financial markets."

The fund also proposed considering an increase in investments in unlisted assets in a separate letter, in part as a way to reduce concentration risks that have grown in its equity portfolio amid the boom in the share prices of a handful of US tech companies.

Under its current mandate the fund can own unlisted real estate and renewable energy assets, but it has a lower share of unlisted investments ⁠than comparable funds.

Norges Bank IM said the biggest change to its bond index would be investing in more non-government debt, including mortgage-backed securities, to give it better diversification and exposure to risk premiums.

The spokesperson said total US dollar exposure would remain around 50%, adding: "What changes is the mix inside the dollar market: less US government debt, correspondingly more US mortgage and government-related bonds."

Under the proposals, the bond index weighting to US government bonds would reduce from 34.1% to 21.9%, according to the letter, with the allocation to euro area debt falling more modestly from 16.8% to 14.1%.

The allocation to Japanese government bonds would increase from 4.6% to 7.4%, while the UK allocation would remain unchanged at 4.2%. The fund said the changes would align the index more closely with the broader market weightings.

While US Treasuries exposure would fall, the proposed allocation to US non-government debt would jump from 16.2% to 27.6%, meaning that the overall bond index's weighting to the US dollar would fall only slightly, from 52.9% to 52.5%.

Europe's biggest pension fund, Dutch fund ABP, cut the value of its own US Treasury holdings in the first quarter of this year, Reuters previously reported.


J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas Forecast December ECB Rate Hike

FILE PHOTO: The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
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J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas Forecast December ECB Rate Hike

FILE PHOTO: The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas said on Thursday they expect the European Central Bank to deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike in December, as persistent inflation risks and elevated energy prices strengthen the case for further tightening.

Both brokerages had previously expected the ECB's tightening cycle to end without a December rate increase.

The revised outlooks suggest borrowing costs in the euro zone will remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated, reflecting resilient regional economic ⁠growth and ongoing energy ⁠supply concerns.

"We think the persistence of the energy shock and the resilience of the economy make second-round effects more likely to materialize," said analysts at BNP Paribas in a note.

Markets have almost fully priced in ⁠a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the European Central Bank at its September 10 policy meeting, indicating a 99.2% probability, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Oil prices eased but remained above $95 a barrel. At the same time, eurozone bond yields retreated from multiyear highs, following recent market pressure as the escalating conflict in Iran boosted energy prices, stoking fears of persistent inflation and ⁠tighter ⁠monetary policy.

According to Reuters, J.P. Morgan said "an interaction between more persistent energy price pressures, solid growth, sticky core inflation and a neutral rate that the ECB sees edging higher" would be the reason for a further rate hike in December.

BNP Paribas expects the ECB to hike interest rates by 25 bps at its meeting next week while leaving the door wide open to delivering more if evidence of second-round effects builds.


US Sanctions Turkish Bank, 2 Subsidiaries to Pressure Iran

ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for a press conference as the 2026 G20 Financial meetings come to a close on September 1, 2026 in Asheville, North Carolina. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images/AFPages via AFP)
ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for a press conference as the 2026 G20 Financial meetings come to a close on September 1, 2026 in Asheville, North Carolina. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images/AFPages via AFP)
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US Sanctions Turkish Bank, 2 Subsidiaries to Pressure Iran

ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for a press conference as the 2026 G20 Financial meetings come to a close on September 1, 2026 in Asheville, North Carolina. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images/AFPages via AFP)
ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for a press conference as the 2026 G20 Financial meetings come to a close on September 1, 2026 in Asheville, North Carolina. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images/AFPages via AFP)

The US Treasury Department said on Friday it imposed new Iran-related sanctions on a small Turkish investment bank and two subsidiaries as part of the Trump administration's effort to increase economic pressure on Iran.

The entities targeted are Instanbul-based investment bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, asset manager Golden Global Portfoy Yonetimi Anonim Sirketi, and asset leasing company Golden Global Varlik Kiralama Anonim Sirketi, according to the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

The sanctions put all three entities on the Treasury's OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list, cutting them off from the dollar-based financial system.

The Treasury Department also issued a general license to allow the wind-down of transactions with the sanctioned entities.

In an interview with news outlet America's Voice News, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ⁠said that the ⁠latest action "is code for you are out of business."

"And we will probably sanction another bank next week, and we are telling the financial system bad actors: 'We know who you are, you know who you are, it's over, and our allies are helping with this," he said.

Golden Global Yatrim Bankasi is the 35th-largest bank in Turkey by total assets, according to database TheBanks.EU, with total assets of 25,024.68 million Turkish lira ($516.63 million) in 2025.

The bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Treasury said in a statement that Golden Global was established for the purpose of enabling Iran's shadow banking network to transfer oil revenues from China to Türkiye,
where it could then be converted to cash and gold by money exchangers.

The Treasury said that Golden Global has knowingly offered to provide correspondent banking services to Iranian financial institutions, enabling transactions through accounts controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force and its proxies.

The action is the latest in the Trump administration's campaign to economically pressure Tehran six months into the US-Israel war with Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher worldwide.

Bessent, who last month announced an "economic onslaught" against Iran's financial links around the world, has said Washington is seeking to force Tehran back to the negotiating table.

Last week, Washington moved to impose Patriot Act curbs ⁠on Egyptian lender Banque Misr's ⁠branches in the United Arab Emirates from US dollar transactions over their dealings with Iran. But the action fell short of full OFAC sanctions on the institution that did not affect Misr's head office or branches elsewhere.

In an interview with Reuters on Sunday, Bessent said the Treasury Department was likely to roll out new secondary sanctions every week, initially focusing on banks, as part of a broader campaign to intensify economic pressure on Iran.