OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
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OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC and partners, known as OPEC+, has agreed to 100 percent compliance with the cut deal, ruling out any immediate, additional increase in crude output, effectively rebuffing US President Donald Trump's calls for action to cool the market.

Following the ministerial meeting in Algiers, Oman's Oil Minister Mohammed al-Rumhy and his Kuwaiti counterpart Bakhit al-Rashidi told reporters after Sunday's talks that producers had agreed they needed to focus on reaching 100 percent compliance with production cuts agreed in June.

That effectively means compensating for falling Iranian production, however, Rumhy said the exact mechanism for doing so had not been discussed.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in his opening remarks that the past year had been a historic one for the Organization, as well as the global oil industry, with the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ helping accelerate the return of balance to the global oil market, bringing more optimism to the industry, which in turn, has had a positive effect on the global economy and trade worldwide.

He added that the importance of these recent developments, specifically in terms of helping achieve sustainable market stability, is clearly vital across all time-frames.

"Stability today begets stability tomorrow, which is vital given that our industry remains a growth business, with oil continuing to be a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future," Barkindo stated.

Meanwhile, UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail Mohamed al Mazrouei asserted that the industry is in a much healthier place than when the historic Algiers meeting took place on 28 September 2016.

The Minister explained that fundamentals are strong and “we have seen a return of a greater degree of balance to the market. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have demonstrated what can be achieved when working together. I’d like to commend all participating countries for their historic efforts in this regard."

There is no doubt that this committee has played an important role in contributing to many successes, he indicated, adding that proper monitoring of conditions in the oil market is an essential component of transparent and effective work.

“The JMMC continues to fulfill its mandate commendably...Despite our major achievements towards market stability, we face new uncertainties today. Many of these uncertainties are factors beyond our control; nevertheless, they need to be continuously monitored in order to build on the progress made to date," he added.

Mazrouei called for continuing the discussions on further means of institutionalizing the cooperation.

For his part, Saudi Energy Minister, who is also Chairman of OPEC's JMMC, Khalid Falih stated that in the 10th meeting of the JMMC, the attendees discussed the excellent results achieved through collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

“I reiterated the critical role oil plays in strengthening the global economy and our keen desire to cushion economies of developing nations,” he added.

The meeting also discussed current oil market conditions and future plans to extend the work of the JMMC to continue to monitor changing conditions in order to ensure sufficient supplies of oil to consumers, Falih indicated.

“Our attention is shifting to 2019. We have been briefed on the prospect of 2019 inventory builds which result from significant supply growth from non-member counties,” Falih said.

Falih said returning to 100 percent compliance was the main objective and should be achieved in the next two to three months, although he refrained from specifying how that could be done.

Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said no immediate output increase was necessary, although he believed a trade war between China and the United States as well as US sanctions on Iran were creating new challenges for oil markets.

“Oil demand will be declining in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. So far, we have decided to stick to our June agreements,” Novak said.

He admitted there were a number of uncertainties regarding several issues, which can be seen in global economic markets.

“We will have to work very, very, very hard together in order to achieve the goals and ensure the implementation of our common arrangements in order to achieve equilibrium in the market," asserted the Russian minister.



IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
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IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund said the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan were facing a pivotal and exceptionally difficult moment in their modern economic history after the war that broke out on Feb. 28, 2026, describing it as a severe and multifaceted shock to one of the world’s most strategically important economic corridors.

The IMF said the conflict was not merely a border crisis but had disrupted “three pillars of stability, energy markets, trade routes, and business confidence,” triggering a global energy shock and weakening supply chains.

Amid these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s economy emerged as a model of resilience, showing what the IMF described as “exceptional sturdiness” that enabled it to absorb the impact of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in regional output, supported by the pillars of Vision 2030, which strengthened fiscal discipline and logistical flexibility.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said while presenting an update of the Regional Economic Outlook in Washington, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, that the war was reshaping the region’s economic outlook.

At the center of the shock was energy, he said, noting that the Strait of Hormuz, “the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and about one-quarter of global LNG trade normally transit,” had come close to a standstill.

He said disruptions and shutdowns had cut oil and gas output across Gulf Cooperation Council countries, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel, while “European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent, exceeding the spike observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” putting global energy security at risk.

He said energy disruptions caused by the war would weigh heavily on Gulf exporters, while oil-importing countries such as Egypt and Jordan were facing higher commodity prices and weaker remittance flows.

More broadly, the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to see a marked slowdown in growth this year, with real GDP projected at about 1.1%, significantly below pre-war forecasts, before a recovery in 2027, according to the IMF.

Azour said the shock extended beyond oil and gas, noting that “commodity disruptions extend beyond oil and gas,” affecting fertilizers, chemicals, and other products in which the region holds a strategic position.

He warned that rising food costs were directly threatening vulnerable populations, saying that “these price increases translate directly into higher food costs for some of the world’s most vulnerable populations,” particularly in import-dependent economies across the region and beyond.

He added that the conflict had also affected services, saying, “air traffic collapsed at major Gulf hubs, maritime insurance premiums surged, shipping routes lengthened, and logistics chains weakened,” highlighting the broad impact on aviation and logistics.

The IMF said some oil-importing economies in the region relied heavily on Gulf countries for energy imports and financial flows, leaving them exposed if the conflict intensified or persisted.

Saudi experience

Azour said one of the most important lessons from the war and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz was the need to diversify trade routes.

“This shock underscores the importance of building greater resilience and strengthening integration,” he said, adding that this includes “diversifying trade routes and deepening regional cooperation,” to ensure the continued flow of goods and energy.

He said Saudi Arabia’s approach under its strategic vision went beyond infrastructure development to a broader reshaping of logistics networks. By expanding alternative ports on the Red Sea and strengthening land and rail connectivity, the kingdom reduced its reliance on a single maritime chokepoint.

He said this ability to create parallel trade routes allowed Saudi trade to continue effectively despite disruptions to regional corridors, offering a model for protecting economic security and ensuring uninterrupted supply flows.

Egypt

Azour said economic reforms implemented by Egypt, along with stronger policy buffers, were helping the country better manage external shocks.

He said allowing the exchange rate to become more flexible helped absorb shocks, while higher reserves provided reassurance to markets.

Regional divergence

The IMF report highlighted a sharp divergence across countries. Qatar faced a steep downgrade to growth forecasts due to damage to its gas infrastructure, while Oman showed relative resilience given its geographic position outside the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, financing pressures increased on Egypt, Pakistan, and Jordan as sovereign spreads widened, prompting Azour to stress that the IMF stood ready to support countries.

He said that if oil production recovered and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, countries would be able to increase output quickly, adding that higher oil prices compared with pre-2026 levels would help producers recover some of their losses from the crisis.


Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
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Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).

Pakistan announced that it has received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance as part of a broader financial support package.

Earlier, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, said that Saudi Arabia had committed to depositing an additional $3 billion, while extending an existing $5 billion loan for three years instead of renewing it annually.

This support comes as Pakistan faces repayment of $3.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates, putting pressure on its reserves, which stand at about $16.4 billion.

Saudi Arabia has a history of assisting Pakistan during economic crises, including a $6 billion support package in 2018 that included deposits and deferred oil payments.


Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
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Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)

Gold prices rose on Thursday as growing optimism about a possible end to conflicts in the Middle East calmed inflation worries and improved prospects for lower interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,815.15 per ounce by 0926 GMT, after rising to a one-month high in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.3% to $4,836.50.

"For the month of March gold was under pressure because of the need for liquidity in the metal following the war, but that is kind of mostly run its course, that need for liquidity," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.

Shah added that he expects gold prices to remain very well supported as concerns surrounding central bank independence and dollar debasement risk still remain prevalent, Reuters reported.

Optimism grew on Thursday that the war in the Middle East may be near an end, with a key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the administration of US President Donald Trump talking up hopes for a deal that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices were up more than 1% on Thursday, but remained well below the $100-a-barrel mark.

"Gold remains supported amid renewed optimism around de-escalation. The pullback in oil prices is easing some of the inflation concerns that weighed on prices earlier in the conflict. The move reflects a broader shift in market focus," ING analysts said.

Global equities vaulted past their previous all-time highs in Asian trading as optimism grew about a deal to end the Iran war.

Gold prices fell to as low as $4,097.99 an ounce on March 23 as high inflation concerns due to soaring energy prices raised expectations of a more hawkish approach to intrest rates by the US Federal Reserve, weighing on the non-yielding metal's demand.

Prices have since recovered as investors now see a more than 34% chance of at least one US interest rate cut by 2026-end, up from 32% a day prior, as per CME's FedWatch Tool.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $80.12 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $2,130.25, and palladium was up 0.9% at $1,587.25.