World Bank: Likely Growth in MENA Economies

World Bank: Likely Growth in MENA Economies
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World Bank: Likely Growth in MENA Economies

World Bank: Likely Growth in MENA Economies

New World Bank report forecasts growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to hit an average of 2 percent, compared to an average of 1.4 percent in 2017.

The slow pace of growth, however, will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required, said the report.

Growth dimensions in the GCC countries, oil-exporters, are likely to witness a progress in which Saudi Arabia's economic growth will exceed 2 percent in 2020 and that of the UAE will rise also during the same period.

The Iranian economy is expected to slump and affect the oil-exporting countries from outside the GCC, in which growth average in these countries will drop to less than 1 percent in 2019 before it rises again to 1.9 percent in 2020.

The report explained that the second batch of US economic sanctions obliged some huge commercial partners of Iran to reduce their imports from the Iranian oil, and pushed many foreign companies to reduce their activity in Iran.

The WB expected Egypt’s growth to hit 5.6 percent during the fiscal year 2019, supported by private consumption, a recovery in the tourism sector and the operationalization of recently discovered gas fields.



Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions
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Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support.

Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.80%, to $76.91 a barrel at 1119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 46 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.02.

It seems market participants have started to price in some small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, according to three traders, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.

Shandong Port Group oversees major ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices.

However, oil price gains were capped by global economic data.

Euro zone inflation

accelerated

in December, an unwelcome but anticipated blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

"Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions that the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the Eurozone, while US manufactured good orders fell in November," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum said.

Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory, and sellers are keen to step in once again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and the oil demand outlook.