Abu-Ghazaleh Warns of Global Economic Crisis in 2020

Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
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Abu-Ghazaleh Warns of Global Economic Crisis in 2020

Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)

The next economic crisis in 2020 may begin in the United States and is expected to be worse than the 2008 global financial crisis and will result in increased unemployment, inflation and cost of living, predicts chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG-Org).

Talal Abu-Ghazaleh believes that Arab countries should be fully prepared for a potential economic crisis and should not entirely rely on the US as a global economic crisis is expected to hit in 2020.

He explained the impact of the next expected crisis on the Arab states, saying it will depend on three factors: their reliance on the US economy, the availability of natural resources such as oil, and the level of productivity in the budget and its percentage to the GDP.

Abu-Ghazaleh advised Arab states to form teams of experts to overcome the crisis.

Signs of the upcoming crisis can be seen in several European countries, such as demonstrations and the difficult conditions Europeans are going through, he explained.

“The international public debt has reached 244 trillion US dollars, which is more than three times the size of the world economy.”

Abu-Ghazaleh explained that the only way for the US administration to overcome the crisis is by meeting with China to discuss trade sanctions and agree on managing the world’s economic matters.

He also called on the Arab states to increase communication with China at the economic, commercial and financial levels as a way to tackle the upcoming economic crises.

TAG-Org is one of the largest groups of professional services firms in the fields of accounting, audit, taxation, education, and training in Arab countries.

It operates out of more than 100 offices worldwide.



China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
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China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

China's industrial profits fell at a slower clip in November, official data showed on Friday, but the annual decline in earnings this year is expected to be the worst in over two decades due to persistently soft domestic consumption.

The world's second-largest economy has been struggling to mount a strong post-pandemic revival, as business and household appetites for spending and investment remain subdued amid a prolonged housing downturn and fresh trade risks from the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Industrial profits fell 7.3% in November from the same month last year, following a 10% drop in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, Reuters reported.

The narrower decline in November pointed to improved profits as recent economic stimulus measures start to have an effect, said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

The profit numbers were also in line with a slower decline in factory-gate prices in November. The producer price index fell 2.5% year-on-year versus the 2.9% drop in October.

The World Bank on Thursday revised up its 2024 economic growth forecast for China slightly to 4.9% from its June forecast of 4.8%.

Still, in the first 11 months of 2024, industrial profits declined 4.7%, deepening a 4.3% slide in the January-October period, reflecting still tepid private demand in the Chinese economy.

China's full-year industrial profits are set to show their biggest drop in percentage terms since 2011. However, when smaller companies are included under a previous compilation methodology, this year's profit decline is expected to the worst since at least 2000.

A spate of economic indicators released this month pointed to mixed results, with industrial output accelerating in November while new home prices fell at the slowest pace in 17 months.

The industrial sector is undergoing an uneven recovery amid insufficient demand, Zhou said, pointing to difficulties facing real estate and some related industries as evidence of this malaise.

China's leaders vowed in a key policy meeting this month to raise the deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to maintain a stable economic growth rate. The government also recently pledged to step up direct fiscal support to consumers and boosting social security.

Beijing has agreed to issue a record $411 billion special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported.

Profits at state-owned firms fell 8.4% in the first 11 months, foreign firms posted a 0.8% decline and private-sector companies recorded a 1% fall, according to a breakdown of the NBS data.

Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.7 million) from their main operations.