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Exclusive - Turkey, Qatar and the Return of ISIS to Libya

Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Turkey, Qatar and the Return of ISIS to Libya

Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)

Are Turkey and Qatar openly backing terrorists in Libya? And if so, why has the international community remained silent over the issue? Why hasn’t it taken serious action to address the situation and resolve the Libyan crisis once and for all?

As it stands, the Libyan National Army (LNA) is trying to rid the country of terrorism and terrorists. Simultaneously, intense efforts are underway to bring in ISIS members, who have fled Syria and Iraq, into Libyan regions that are controlled by militias. International intelligence agencies have the evidence to prove this.

Turkish meddling

It is no secret that Turkey and Qatar are behind the developments in Libya. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who failed in spreading his Islamist agenda during the so-called Arab Spring, is now attempting to make up for his losses by meddling in Libya. It represents his last hope to revive his illusions. He believes that if extremists succeed in Libya, then their influence may spread to neighboring Tunisia in the west and Egypt in the east. Egypt, he believes, spoiled his plans in recent years when the people revolted in June 2013.

Developments in Libya have exposed Ankara’s supplying of weapons to militias in flagrant violation of the arms embargo imposed on the country since 2011. Intelligence agencies received information in the past two weeks of the arrival of several Ukrainian aircraft to Tripoli from Ankara loaded with weapons for the pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) militias.

The GNA, which has lost its aerial firepower, is in much need of aerial support. It is working tirelessly to bring in drones from Turkey in an attempt to cause as much damage as possible against the LNA. Ankara has so far supplied the GNA with eight attack drones, in violation of the arms embargo.

In addition to weapons, Turkey has sent intelligence agents to support the Tripoli-based militias and terrorist groups, revealed a Libyan military source. The LNA has obtained the names of 19 Turkish officers, whom Ankara has dispatched to Libya to operate the drones.

As for Qatar, militias it supports planted French-made Javelin rockets in LNA weapons storehouses to make it appear as if it was violating the embargo. Doha has also helped the militias purchase advanced weapons from Bulgaria and later smuggled them to Libya.

ISIS return

Are Turkey and Qatar facilitating the return of ISIS to Libya? It is no secret that extremists residing in Qatar, who are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups, are active these days in bringing in terrorists from Iraq and Syria to Libya. While Doha exploits its transportation companies to that end, Erdogan has opened up his airports for these terrorists.

Libyan MP Ali al-Saeedi confirmed Turkey’s involvement in transporting terrorists to his country. He stressed that the extremists seek to fight the LNA during its operation against Tripoli.

Moreover, the ISIS affiliate in Libya recently reemerged in the country. The group released a video of Mahmoud al-Baraasi, known as Abu Musab al-Libi, the founder of the ISIS affiliate in Benghazi, vowing to wage attacks against the LNA. The video, which showed dozens of militants pledging allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was likely shot in the southern region of Sabha.

In May, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on an oilfield in the town of Zillah, some 650 kilometers southeast of the capital Tripoli. The attack was seen as an escalation against LNA-held regions in the South.

Returning to Erdogan, what does he really want from Libya?

He is seeking to make up for his political losses in Turkey and his country’s deteriorating economy. He is set to face even greater challenges should Washington impose sanctions on Ankara over its purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia.

Erdogan is ultimately eyeing Libya’s oil and gas reserves to make up for his losses back home.

During the rule of late leader Moammar al-Gaddafi, Turkish companies operated in Libya and made billions of dollars in profits. This changed with Gaddafi’s ouster. Ankara managed to establish close ties with the GNA, allowing its companies to again regain a foothold and reap interests. This again came to halt, this time when the LNA launched its operation against Tripoli in April. The army therefore, became a major threat to Turkey’s economic and financial ambitions, pushing it firmly to side with Fayez al-Sarraj’s GNA against the advancing forces.

Any end in sight?

It is obvious that the situation in Libya is complicated, compounded even further by ISIS’ threat. The crisis is now an issue of global security and Europe must step up this time and compensate for the losses that led Libya down its destructive path in the first place. The international community must also take a stand and take decisive positions against Turkey and Qatar’s ambitions.

As for the United States, its stance remains vague, but the administration of Donald Trump is definitely opposed to terrorism. As it stands, however, it is currently distracted by the crisis with Iran.

At any rate, a resolution to the Libyan crisis is unlikely in the near future, which is the best environment for radicals and terrorists to thrive. Will the world therefore, sit idly by as ISIS aspires to open a new bloody chapter, this time on the shores of the Mediterranean?

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72 Hours that Arranged the Succession: Khaddam Recalls What Happened after Hafez al-Assad's Death

Bashar al-Assad during his father’s funeral in June 2000. (AFP)
Bashar al-Assad during his father’s funeral in June 2000. (AFP)
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72 Hours that Arranged the Succession: Khaddam Recalls What Happened after Hafez al-Assad's Death

Bashar al-Assad during his father’s funeral in June 2000. (AFP)
Bashar al-Assad during his father’s funeral in June 2000. (AFP)

Former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam’s recent memoirs tackle the three days that followed the death of the late President Hafez al-Assad on June 10, 2000. He recalled the events from the perspective of someone who was inside the room where the succession was arranged.

The memoirs, edited and introduced by Ibrahim Hamidi, are due to be published in early September by Raff Publishing, a subsidiary of the Saudi Research and Media Group (SRMG).

Khaddam contacted Hafez al-Assad to ask permission to travel to Baniyas, leading to a lengthy conversation about health and age in which Assad said: "I have carried burdens beyond my capacity." He ended the conversation with a request: "Call me when you arrive."

Upon Khaddam's return to Damascus on Saturday, he was informed that the presidential palace was calling for him and that "Dr. Bashar" - Assad’s son - was waiting for him at home, at which point he realized that the president had died.

In the reception hall, he found the members of the Syrian command with Bashar and his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat with discussions focusing on how to announced the death. Minister of Defense General Mustafa Tlass informed him that the Regional Command had made two decisions: nominating Bashar for the presidency and amending Article 83 of the Constitution regarding the age of the President of the Republic since Bashar was 34 years old and the constitution required the minimum age to be 40. The People's Assembly was to meet in the evening to approve the amendment.

The memoirs are due to be published in early September by Raff Publishing, a subsidiary of the Saudi Research and Media Group (SRMG).

On the evening of Hafez’s death itself, Khaddam recalled that he met with Bashar at his home and suggested promoting him to the rank of general and appointing him Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Armed Forces, "so that he would have a legitimate status in the state" before a referendum.

Bashar asked him whether they should consult Tlass, and Khaddam replied that they would inform him of the decision rather than ask him.

The following day, the proposal was presented to Tlass in the presence of Bashar, whereupon the Defense Minister's face turned pale and he fell silent before stating that he would order the drafting of the decree.

Here, the memoirs record the most striking point of contention: the decree was delayed, and when the director of Tlass's office was asked about the reason, he replied that the General wanted to promote Bashar to the rank of "Lieutenant General" rather than "General", a proposal that would have kept the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Army within the reach of the Defense Minister.

Khaddam revealed his conviction was that Tlass "was not fit for this position," and that he had made a decision to support Bashar "to the end, even if it were at the expense of old comrades."

Bashar al-Assad and Abdul Halim Khaddam at the Syrian parliament in 2000. (AFP)

The memoirs reveal that Bashar’s path to the presidency began in 1994 with the death of his brother Bassel. Khaddam recalled that while everyone was in Qardaha for the burial, he learned that Anisa Makhlouf and her brother Mohammad Makhlouf had met and decided to terminate Bashar’s studies in London so that he could take his brother’s place as Hafez’s eventual successor.

Recalling that period, Khaddam said: "We must not forget that the elder Assad built a regime in which he placed Syrians before two choices: either to accept the regime with all its flaws, or civil war."

The issue is not merely a story of military protocol; it reveals the fragility of the moment of transition in a regime built for decades around a single individual, and how the party, constitution, army, and family intervened within a few short hours to produce a succession intended to appear natural. The details of those 72 hours appear in the book's chapter titled "The Death of Hafez al-Assad."

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School Starts Soon in Lebanon but Thousands Still Shelter in Them During War

Displaced woman, Randa al-Taki, 51, and her daughter Fatima Haidar, 11, arrange their clothes inside their makeshift room that set on a basketball court inside a public school turned into a shelter for people whose villages in southern Lebanon were destroyed or occupied by Israeli forces, in Tyre, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP)
Displaced woman, Randa al-Taki, 51, and her daughter Fatima Haidar, 11, arrange their clothes inside their makeshift room that set on a basketball court inside a public school turned into a shelter for people whose villages in southern Lebanon were destroyed or occupied by Israeli forces, in Tyre, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP)
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School Starts Soon in Lebanon but Thousands Still Shelter in Them During War

Displaced woman, Randa al-Taki, 51, and her daughter Fatima Haidar, 11, arrange their clothes inside their makeshift room that set on a basketball court inside a public school turned into a shelter for people whose villages in southern Lebanon were destroyed or occupied by Israeli forces, in Tyre, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP)
Displaced woman, Randa al-Taki, 51, and her daughter Fatima Haidar, 11, arrange their clothes inside their makeshift room that set on a basketball court inside a public school turned into a shelter for people whose villages in southern Lebanon were destroyed or occupied by Israeli forces, in Tyre, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP)

Eleven-year-old Fatima Khashab helps her mother tidy the small area where their family sleeps, in a row of makeshift living quarters in a school gymnasium.

About 200 families are sheltering in the school in Lebanon’s southern coastal city of Tyre. Most are from villages farther south that have been destroyed in the latest war between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah or are occupied by Israeli forces, like Fatima’s hometown of Mansouri.

The school year will start on Sept. 15, but thousands of displaced people still shelter in public schools. With negotiations between Israel and Lebanon — and between the US and Iran — stalled, there is no political solution in sight that would allow them to go home.

Education officials say they have a plan to reopen the schools while maintaining shelters for families with nowhere to go. But anxiety is high.

“We don’t know if we will be able to go back to our village or if the crisis will get even worse. Nobody except for God knows what’s going to happen," said Fatima’s mother, Randa al-Taki, 51.

On top of that, she said, “Our children are deprived of school, and we don’t know if they are going to learn this year or not.”

Education is again disrupted for children in Lebanon

Lebanon has traditionally prided itself on its education system. Its economy relies on sending educated young people abroad to work. They send remittances and make investments back home.

That system is in danger of crumbling.

Since 2019, Lebanon has been battered by an economic collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and two wars. The current conflict has disrupted education for hundreds of thousands of children.

“There’s an estimated at least four years of learning loss now,” said Nora Ingdal, Lebanon country director for Save the Children, which has set up learning spaces for displaced children. “A sixth grader is actually on the level of a second grader.”

At the height of the current conflict, half of Lebanon’s public schools were used as shelters, disrupting education for more than 250,000 students, according to a report by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, a Qatar-based think tank.

Nasser Yassin, the center’s director in Beirut and a former Lebanese government minister who was in charge of the crisis response during the 2024 war, said the government should have used other places for shelters whenever possible, not schools.

“We should not respond to a displacement crisis by creating a long-term education crisis,” he said.

About 350,000 people remain displaced

The latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began on March 2, when the group fired rockets across the border two days after Israel and the US launched a war on Iran.

At the height of the war, some 1.2 million people were displaced in Lebanon.

Since late June, a shaky truce has allowed most to return home. In Beirut, the displacement crisis is no longer visible the way it was early in the war, when tents lined the seaside corniche and families slept in their cars along main thoroughfares.

But the Israeli military still occupies large swaths of southern Lebanon and has said it won't withdraw before Hezbollah is fully disarmed, a prospect that appears unlikely. Israeli troops have demolished houses in areas they control and launched strikes that they say target Hezbollah militants.

“Every day we see how they are demolishing our village with bulldozers, and they’re either blowing up the houses or bombing them in front of our eyes, and we can’t do anything,” al-Taki said of Israel's military. She is unsure if their house is still standing. Lebanon's state news agency reported new airstrikes and shelling on their hometown over the weekend.

Around 350,000 people remain displaced, according to the UN humanitarian office. While most have rented apartments or moved in with relatives, some 21,000 still stay in collective shelters.

Some have been displaced since the previous Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which erupted into full-scale war in September 2024.

That’s the case for Malak Abu Sari, 11, whose home was destroyed. Her family is staying in the school in Tyre.

Fatima's family was displaced in 2024, too, but they were able to return home before fleeing in March, early in the current war, and again about a month ago after briefly going back.

‘We feel that we’re suffocating’

At the school, Fatima's family is surrounded by relatives and former neighbors. The familiar faces make them feel less alone. Humanitarian groups organize activities for the children. One woman brought her cockatiel when she fled, and children stop by to play with him.

But the families chafe at the lack of privacy.

“We have a place to stay in the school, and thank God for that, but to be honest, we feel that we’re suffocating between these tarps,” al-Taki said.

Before the war, the family made a living farming zaatar, a herb used in a popular Levantine spice mix. Her husband sold snacks from a tuk-tuk on beaches. Now they've missed the zaatar season, and there’s no work.

Fatima pines for her old life. She misses being in her own bed and not in a cramped room with tarps for walls.

“I miss a lot of things,” she said. “I want to go back to school and stay in our own house.”

Online learning poses a challenge

Georgia Hachem, adviser to Lebanon’s education minister, said around 80 schools are still serving as shelters, but many host a small number of families.

In some cases, those schools will reopen for classes while part of the facility continues as a shelter. In other cases, families will be consolidated in a single location. In Beirut, the ministry will move displaced families to unused buildings.

“We have a solution for every single shelter, and no student will be left without a seat,” Hachem said.

The bigger issue, she said, is the 340 schools damaged in the war, with some 30 of them destroyed and no funds to repair them. Other schools are inaccessible in occupied areas.

After the war began, the education ministry offered online classes to students whose schools closed, but families in shelters often have internet problems and limited resources, Ingdal said.

“Maybe there’s one device in the family and you have five kids who are going to learn,” she said.

Most students can return to school in person this year, Hachem said, but a handful of schools will remain online.

Features

Investors Prosper and Consumers Pay as the Iran War Exacts an Uneven Economic Toll 6 Months in

People walk near an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, July 15, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
People walk near an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, July 15, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Investors Prosper and Consumers Pay as the Iran War Exacts an Uneven Economic Toll 6 Months in

People walk near an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, July 15, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
People walk near an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, July 15, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

As the US and Israel relentlessly bombed Iran in the opening days of war, the most dramatic predictions of the conflict’s toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe.

But six months into the conflict, the direst predictions haven’t come true even if no corner of the world's economy has been untouched.

“So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist with Cerity Partners.

Here's a look at how the global economy has weathered the war, and who have been the winners and losers:

Winner: Investors who didn’t panic

Stock markets hate uncertainty, and the decision by the US and Israel to attack Iran on Feb. 28 delivered heaps of it. Columns of smoke rose from Tehran, frantic Iranians clogged roadways trying to escape, and mounting deaths, including of children, made headlines. It was enough for any investor to feel squeamish.

Oil prices surged and Wall Street began a retreat that would begin five consecutive losing weeks. The Dow and Nasdaq entered corrections. The S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022.

But a major turnaround has unfolded since the market bottomed in late March. The Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P is up almost 22% and the Nasdaq has surged 27%. If those gains survive the waning months of 2026, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.

The International Monetary Fund, in a July report, said the economy was “being shaped by two major forces, pushing in opposite directions.” The war has strained growth, but enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has offset the drag.

Main Street may be paying more for fuel, food and travel. But Wall Street, so far, is shrugging it off.

Loser: Anyone on the move

The war's most obvious economic consequence has been its impact on oil. With tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, the price of Brent crude climbed from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to as high as nearly $120. Although prices have eased, they are still up about 20% from before the war.

Oil's price affects everything from crayons to cosmetics, but it hits anyone on the move especially hard.

Jet fuel is expected to cost, on average, 70% more than in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines, in turn, have raised ticket costs, hiked baggage fees and slapped on fuel surcharges while slashing flights or backing off from plans for added routes. Lufthansa Group, for one, cut 20,000 short-haul flights. Spirit Airlines, though troubled for years, evaporated.

“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” said Brett House, a Columbia University economist. “There is less choice for consumers and less competition between airlines, and therefore, less pressure to rein in fare increases.”

A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on March 3, 2026. (AFP)

Winner: The case for clean power

With tankers at a standstill and fuel prices climbing, the war strengthened a clean-power sales pitch.

Sales of electric vehicles hit records in some parts of the world. In Singapore, year-over-year growth of EVs reached 110%. In New Zealand, the figure hit 180%. And in Colombia, EVs notched a 300% increase.

Worldwide, EVs are projected to account for 29% of total vehicle sales in 2026, according to an International Energy Agency outlook, up from 25% last year. That growth is even more impressive considering the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China, saw declining demand for EVs.

Countries that were particularly reliant on Gulf oil have been spurred to action. In Southeast Asia, leaders have rolled out more use of renewable energy and researched deploying nuclear power. In Africa, countries have looked to expand domestic refining and accelerated the installation of solar panels.

Scott Lehmann, a supply chain expert at Sphera, an operational intelligence firm, counts 26 countries and regions that have announced clean energy and electrification measures in response to the war.

“The crisis is forcing investment faster than any policy framework would have,” he said.

Loser: The fight against hunger

For the privileged, the costs brought by war may barely be a blip. For the poorest, it's a different story.

With the Gulf not just a leader in global oil production, but also of fertilizer, the war has dealt a blow to farmers. Just as many were making decisions about their crops, fertilizer prices soared, peaking in April at 44% higher than before the war, according to the World Bank’s price index.

In response, some farmers trimmed their fertilizer use, potentially imperiling next year’s harvests. “If you’re reducing your fertilizer usage right now, it’s in a way borrowing against next year’s soil health,” said Arif Gasilov, a natural resources expert with the Gasilov Group consultancy.

The United Nations World Food Program has warned that tens of millions could be pushed into hunger. In testimony this week, its acting executive director, Carl Skau, said the “suffocation of fertilizer exports” had hit Asia and Africa hard. Higher transportation costs hindered the WFP’s own humanitarian efforts, too.

“An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” Skau said. “When oil prices go up, so does the price of flour, rice and vegetables.”

A drone view shows vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 28, 2026. (Reuters)

Winner: The Trumps’ businesses

The war has already cost the US tens of billions of dollars and caused thousands in Iranian casualties. It has shaved an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars from projected global output.

But the family of the man at the center of it all, President Donald Trump, has been among the beneficiaries.

Military contractor Powerus, about to be taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., won an Air Force contract worth as much as $90 million to supply interceptors to shoot down Iranian drones.

Similarly, the private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr. joined days after his father’s reelection, owns stakes in several other military contractors profiting from the war. One of them, Anduril, won US approval for up to $2 billion in sales of drone interceptors. A second, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is providing satellite service to guide US drones against Iran. And a third — rocket maker Firehawk Defense — won Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads to replenish dwindling US supplies.

A spokeswoman for 1789 Capital, Alexa Henning, said Don Jr. wasn't involved in the decision to put money in those companies, so there is no “nefarious connection.”

The president himself has done well, too.

His investment portfolio run by outside managers has scooped up shares of US military suppliers helped by the war, including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman. Democrats released a report this week saying Trump’s holdings in oil and gas stocks have soared by as much as $15.5 million.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, insisted “there are no conflicts of interest” and that “President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public.”

Even as Trump's personal finances have benefited, his political fortunes are another question. The conflict has been unpopular and could weigh on voters as midterm elections near.