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IMF Projects 2.9% GDP Growth in Saudi Arabia in 2019

The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is seen during a news conference in Santiago, Chile, July 23, 2019. REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido/File Photo
The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is seen during a news conference in Santiago, Chile, July 23, 2019. REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido/File Photo
    Riyadh, Washington- Asharq Al-Awsat and Atef Abdullatif
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IMF Projects 2.9% GDP Growth in Saudi Arabia in 2019

The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is seen during a news conference in Santiago, Chile, July 23, 2019. REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido/File Photo
The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is seen during a news conference in Santiago, Chile, July 23, 2019. REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido/File Photo

Saudi non-oil growth is expected to continue recovering in 2019, accelerating to 2.9 percent this year, revealed a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The 2019 Article IV Consultation report for Saudi Arabia commended the kingdom's progress made in implementing its reform program that aimed at supporting the diversification of the economy, inclusive growth, and job creation.

It confirmed that the kingdom is continuing the implementation of reforms that seek to strengthen the legal framework and improve business climate.

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan said: "The IMF report reaffirms the significant progress made by the Kingdom as a result of implementing many structural reforms planned in accordance with Saudi Vision 2030, especially the reforms regarding combating corruption, money laundering, and the financing of terrorism.

"Most of the recommendations laid out in the 2019 Article IV Consultation report are in line with the measures taken by the government that would achieve fiscal sustainability according to best practices, including the continuous progress in reforms to improve the efficiency of public financial management, and work to achieve financial stability and spur economic growth."

The report pointed out that the structural reforms undertaken by the government include: financial markets, foreign investment, legal framework, ease of doing business, and SMEs. It believed that maintaining the exchange rate peg to the US dollar is still the best option for the Kingdom, given the structure of its economy.

The report also predicted that the growth rate of the non-oil sector will continue to improve over the medium term to reach 3 percent to 3.2 percent over the coming years as economic reforms continue to be implemented.

The unemployment rate also dropped to 12.5 percent during Q1 of 2019, and credit growth improved amid lending growth recovery for the construction and manufacturing sectors. Also, banks are in good condition besides real estate lending.

The report also acknowledged the increase of reserves at the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA), which ranks high using the IMF’s assessment of reserve adequacy metric. In addition, the report expected a decrease in the non-exported oil primary deficit.

The report confirmed that the Vision Realization Programs of the Saudi Vision 2030 have moved from the design stage to the implementation stage. The economic and social reforms that support growth and employment of citizens are beginning to have a positive impact on the economy, according to the report.

The IMF's report commended the progress made through the reforms that contributed to strengthening the general fiscal framework, risk analysis and process of budget preparation, as well as establishing a medium-term general fiscal framework and developing an online expenditure management system (Etimad).

In addition to achieving the rapid progress in financial market reforms and the domestic debt market, the report noted that these reforms culminated in the inclusion of the kingdom in the international equities and bonds markets indexes this year.

It also valued the ongoing measures to improve the governance and the anti-corruption framework, strengthen the AML/CFT framework and stressed the importance of continuing reforms in these areas. At the same time, the report called for more effort to achieve greater fiscal control to reduce risks in the medium term.

The report confirmed that the government has implemented many of the recommendations outlined in the 2018 report of Article IV consultation and the 2017 Financial Sector Stability Assessment Report.

It mentioned that the implemented recommendations included the continuous reforms to develop non-oil revenues and increasing the volume of bank lending for SMEs.

The report considered that there was a need to continue fiscal consolidation efforts, setting additional fiscal measures and improving expenditure management to rebuild the fiscal buffers and limit risks in the medium term.

However, it praised the achieved improvement in the quality of economic data, as well as the Council of Ministers approval of the new Government Tenders and Procurement Law.

The report lauded the efforts made to increase opportunities to obtain financial services under the Financial Sector Development Program.

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Business

Gulf Railway Enters Implementation Phase, Targets 2030 Completion

Members of the GCC Transport and Communications Ministers Committee pose for an official photo in Manama (GCC). 
Members of the GCC Transport and Communications Ministers Committee pose for an official photo in Manama (GCC). 
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Gulf Railway Enters Implementation Phase, Targets 2030 Completion

Members of the GCC Transport and Communications Ministers Committee pose for an official photo in Manama (GCC). 
Members of the GCC Transport and Communications Ministers Committee pose for an official photo in Manama (GCC). 

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries signed an agreement in Manama on Sunday to advance a 2,117-kilometer railway linking all six member states by 2030, as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the need to diversify trade and supply routes.

The agreement establishes a common framework for building and operating the network and integrating national transport systems, amid regional tensions that have disrupted cargo movements, raised shipping and insurance costs, and highlighted the importance of alternative routes.

The Gulf railway is intended to strengthen regional logistics rather than replace maritime transport, which remains essential to Gulf and international trade.

The signing ceremony was held under the patronage and in the presence of Bahrain’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, with GCC transport ministers and Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi attending.

The planned network will connect Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, with full operations targeted for December 2030.

The agreement sets out member states’ obligations, coordination mechanisms, technical and operational standards, and safety requirements to ensure compatibility with national railway systems.

Bahrain’s Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications, Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, told Asharq Al-Awsat that each country would finance and implement the section within its territory.

He explained that GCC states had not signed prior agreements with international partners to finance or execute the project, although global companies could provide expertise and technical and technological services according to national requirements.

Project 55.9% Complete

Albudaiwi announced that the Gulf railway project had reached 55.9% completion, describing the agreement as a framework governing member states’ commitment, implementation procedures and the timetable for bringing the network into service.

While full operations are scheduled for December 2030, cross-border connections between neighboring countries could open individually once the necessary infrastructure and operational requirements are met.

This would allow completed sections to enter service progressively rather than waiting for the entire 2,117-kilometer network to be finished.

Projections indicate that the railway will carry approximately 6 million passengers and 200 million tons of freight in 2030, rising to more than 8 million passengers and 271 million tons by 2045.

Passenger trains are expected to reach speeds of 200 kilometers per hour, while freight services will operate at 80 to 120 kilometers per hour.

The network will connect economic and industrial centers, ports and logistics hubs across the Gulf, facilitating trade and the movement of passengers and goods while creating investment and employment opportunities in transport and related services.

National Financing and Potential Partnerships

Earlier estimates put the cost of the project’s core infrastructure at between $15.4 billion and $16 billion.

The Bahraini minister explained that these figures were under review because of rising costs for construction materials, services and building works. No revised estimate for the overall project has been announced.

Although each country will fund its own section, private-sector participation remains possible in certain components, subject to economic and financial feasibility studies.

The minister added that potential partnerships would depend on the requirements of individual sections, with no single financing or implementation model envisaged for the entire network.

Bahrain’s connection to the Gulf railway depends on the proposed King Hamad Causeway, which would link the island kingdom to Saudi Arabia through a railway alongside a road connection.

The project would connect Bahrain’s international passenger terminal with the Saudi railway network, providing a direct link to the wider GCC system.

Bahrain currently relies on the King Fahd Causeway for road transport to Saudi Arabia. Studies and procedures concerning the proposed King Hamad Causeway, including its railway component, remain underway as part of efforts to complete the cross-border connection.

Shipping Disruptions Highlight Logistics Challenges

The agreement has taken on added significance following recent disruptions to regional shipping, particularly reduced vessel traffic at Bahrain’s Khalifa bin Salman Port, which has increased reliance on road transport and alternative ports in neighboring countries.

Albudaiwi praised Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman for their cooperation during the period of Iranian attacks, citing logistical facilities, coordination and alternative cargo routes that helped maintain supply chains to other GCC countries.

He stressed the need for greater integration among transport systems, more diversified supply routes and stronger preparedness and coordination to manage future crises.

The GCC’s transport and storage sector recorded real growth of 5.7% in 2025, making it one of the fastest-growing non-oil economic activities, he noted.

At the 19th consultative meeting of the GCC Supreme Council in Jeddah on April 28, 2026, Gulf leaders called for a study on strengthening logistics integration among member states as part of broader efforts to develop transport networks and diversify trade and supply routes.

Rail and Maritime Transport to Work Together

Despite the renewed focus on rail connectivity amid shipping disruptions, the project is designed to complement maritime transport rather than compete with it.

Rail services could move goods from ports to industrial centers and domestic markets while providing additional distribution routes between GCC countries. Ships would continue to carry the bulk of international freight over long distances.

Integrating the railway into wider international logistics corridors would require further studies, agreements and coordination among governments and relevant authorities, beyond completing the rail infrastructure within the GCC.

The network is also expected to stimulate intra-Gulf trade, improve connections between production and consumption centers, and attract investment in transportation, logistics and related industries.

Additional employment opportunities are anticipated in construction, operations, maintenance and supporting services.

From a 2009 Proposal to Regional Implementation

The Gulf railway initiative dates to December 2009, when the GCC Supreme Council approved plans for a network connecting member states to facilitate trade, improve mobility for citizens and residents, and strengthen regional economic integration.

In December 2021, the council approved the establishment of the GCC Railways Authority to coordinate national efforts, monitor connectivity and operational requirements, and provide an institutional framework for cooperation.

Implementation has since progressed across member states, with completion exceeding 50% by May 2026.

Business

Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzania

A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
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Saudi Gold Refinery Obtains 10 Gold Exploration Licenses in Tanzania

A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
A gold mine in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 

Saudi Gold Refinery Company (SGR) announced Sunday it has secured 10 licenses to explore gold in the Republic of Tanzania, covering a total area of nearly 1,000 square kilometers, in a move aimed at expanding the company’s mining operations outside the Kingdom.

The company said it has allocated an initial investment of $10 million to carry out exploration activities, within an ambitious plan to gradually increase total investments to $100 million. These investments will support the development, establishment, and operation of gold mines, with commercial production targeted to commence by 2030.

The announcement follows a visit to Tanzania by Faisal Suliman Al-Othaim, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors at SGR.

According to the company, this milestone is supported by the Ministry of Investment and the Saudi Embassy in Tanzania, highlighting the importance of strengthening Saudi investments abroad and creating new opportunities for national companies in the global mining industry.

SGR continues to advance its global expansion strategy through its international investment arm, UGM Tanzania co, which oversees its operations and investment activities in Tanzania and Ethiopia.

The company also maintains ongoing projects and business activities in Egypt and the Sultanate of Oman, while actively exploring opportunities in additional markets to further expand its global footprint and create sustainable value across the mining sector.

In the Saudi market, the company plans to develop six to ten mines before 2030, at an average rate of two mines per year. These plans are supported by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, financial institutions and other relevant authorities and stakeholders.

 

 

 

Business

Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’

A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
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Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks ‘Unlikely’

A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)
A worker walks past oil pipes at a refinery in Wuhan, Hubei province March 23, 2012. (Reuters)

Oil prices fell at Monday's open after US President Donald Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new Iran attacks while talks to end the conflict make progress, despite both nations' reports of attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent was down 84 cents, or 0.85%, to $97.48 a barrel by 0138 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate fell 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.51 a barrel.

The fall reversed minor gains made on Friday’s settlement as the market assessed the possibility of further US ‌strikes on Iran, ‌although Brent fell 17% last week, the ‌steepest ⁠weekly drop since the ⁠start of the COVID pandemic and the biggest in absolute terms, according to LSEG data dating back to 1988.

"It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump told CNN in a phone interview. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary."

Trump had hinted at renewing attacks on Iran after ⁠last week's US midterm elections, but there has ‌been no sign of a large-scale ‌US military operation. Iran has said it would respond by striking US and ‌Israeli targets.

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, called ‌Trump's comments "more measured" but said "the market is still waiting to see whether the midterms have produced a lasting shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict, or whether this is just another temporary change in tone."

Oil is headed ‌for a glut again as recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production from other countries and ⁠weak demand have ⁠pushed global supply above consumption, JPMorgan said in a report on Friday, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.

On Sunday, Iraq reached an understanding with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a shipping lane near Oman, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said in an interview with Al Jazeera.

He said Iraq's losses from the Iran war and disruptions to oil exports had reached $60 billion.