Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner made last year's US Open feel like two weeks of killing time until the inevitable.
They had separated themselves from everyone else in men's tennis while meeting in the French Open and Wimbledon finals. It seemed a foregone conclusion they would make it three in a row, which is exactly what happened.
With the No. 1-ranked Sinner sidelined, Alcaraz only returning now to defend his title after missing four months and Novak Djokovic perhaps finally showing his age, the US Open once again feels, well, open.
Just don't confuse that with meaning easier.
“It’s the same conversation,” American player Frances Tiafoe said. “Still got to beat seven guys however way you slice it.”
Sabalenka's summer swoon threatens her place at the top
The women's side has its own questions, with two-time defending US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka losing in the fourth round at Wimbledon and both hard-court tournaments she played since, putting her hold on the No. 1 ranking in jeopardy.
The top spot in the rankings could be in reach for multiple women and so is the trophy at the final major tournament of the year, with No. 3 Jessica Pegula saying “there’s not one or two super dominant players where you feel like they have to lose in order for you to have a chance.”
“It seems to me like maybe more open in a way, just because, I don’t know, there’s more chances,” added Pegula, who lost to Sabalenka in the 2024 final and last year's semifinals.
Play begins Sunday, with Pegula in Arthur Ashe Stadium's opening match and Djokovic leading off the night session before Venus Williams, at 46, faces Sofia Kenin.
Injuries have given other players an opportunity
Alcaraz gets one more day to prepare. He has been sidelined since April with a right wrist injury, deciding last week he was ready to return at the tournament where he has won two of his seven Grand Slam titles.
The most recent was at the Australian Open, but he went out not long after. Alexander Zverev won the French Open for his first major title, lost to Sinner in the Wimbledon final, then became the No. 1 seed in Flushing Meadows when Sinner determined the knee injury that has kept him out since that victory wasn't fully healed.
“It’s been a couple of months now where it’s been pretty similar: a lot of uncertainty, some of the top players, they’re kind of injured or they’re not playing. This is a little bit of the same, so we have seen lot of different players stepping up and a lot of different opportunities being up for grabs," said Alex de Minaur, the No. 6 seed from Australia.
Daniil Medvedev, the 2021 US Open champion, pointed at players such as Zverev and Arthur Fils, who beat Tiafoe for the Cincinnati Open title before coming to New York, as players who know there's an opportunity they don't want to waste.
“For them, they’re probably thinking about it, not in a bad way, but they’re like, we have a better chance without Jannik and maybe Carlos not 100% yet,” the No. 7-seeded Medvedev said.
Djokovic exited the Cincinnati tournament in his first match and afterward mentioned an unspecified health problem that bothers him in the heat. That could make it difficult for the 24-time Grand Slam singles champion to make another lengthy run in New York at 39.
American men are still trying to end a Grand Slam drought that dates to Andy Roddick at the 2003 US Open. Ben Shelton won in Montreal before Tiafoe's runner-up finish in Cincinnati, and Taylor Fritz lost to Sinner in the 2024 final in New York.
“I would say this is a golden opportunity,” ESPN commentator Patrick McEnroe said. “Obviously if Alcaraz comes back and gets through a few matches, looks good, he’ll quickly become the favorite. I mean, he’s the favorite right now, but he’d quickly become a bigger favorite. There’s no doubt the fact he hasn’t played since the spring, with Sinner out, this is a monster opportunity.”
Elena Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final, Pegula and No. 4 Coco Gauff are all in pursuit of the No. 1 ranking. Sabalenka could, depending on other results, lose it even if she becomes the first player to win three straight US Open titles since Serena Williams from 2012-14.
“I’ll try to do my very best, and we’ll see what happens with the end of this tournament,” Sabalenka said.
She may be vulnerable, but Alcaraz perhaps even more so. In 2025, it seemed only one man could beat him. This time, the list could be lengthy.
“I mean, he’s always a guy we’re going to look at, but a lot of guys believe they can not only get him but win the event,” Tiafoe said. “It’s going to be an exciting US Open.”
