Lebanon Clashes Threaten to Crack Open Fault Lines

A Lebanese soldier walks near a burning motorcycle amid clashes between supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal groups, and anti-government protesters in the capital Beirut. (AFP)
A Lebanese soldier walks near a burning motorcycle amid clashes between supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal groups, and anti-government protesters in the capital Beirut. (AFP)
TT

Lebanon Clashes Threaten to Crack Open Fault Lines

A Lebanese soldier walks near a burning motorcycle amid clashes between supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal groups, and anti-government protesters in the capital Beirut. (AFP)
A Lebanese soldier walks near a burning motorcycle amid clashes between supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal groups, and anti-government protesters in the capital Beirut. (AFP)

Clashes between Lebanese protesters and supporters of the Hezbollah party are putting Lebanon’s military and security forces in a delicate position, threatening to crack open the country’s dangerous fault lines amid a political deadlock.

For weeks, the Lebanese security forces have taken pains to protect anti-government protesters, in stark contrast to Iraq, where police have killed more than 340 people over the past month in a bloody response to similar protests.

The overnight violence — some of the worst since protests against the country’s ruling elite began last month — gave a preview into a worst-case scenario for Lebanon’s crisis, with the country’s US-trained military increasingly in the middle between pro- and anti-Hezbollah factions.

By attacking protesters Sunday night, Hezbollah sent a message that it is willing to use force to protect its political power, said The Associated Press. Confronting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, however, is out of the question for the military as doing so would wreck the neutral position it seeks to maintain and could split its ranks.

"The army is in a difficult position facing multiple challenges and moving cautiously between the lines," said Fadia Kiwan, professor of political science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

She said the military has sought to protect the protesters and freedom of expression but is increasingly grappling with how to deal with road closures and violence.

The UN Security Council urged all actors in Lebanon on Monday to engage in “intensive national dialogue and to maintain the peaceful character of the protests” by respecting the right to peaceful assembly and protest.

Calling this “a very critical time for Lebanon,” the UN’s most powerful body also commended Lebanon’s armed forces and state security institutions for their role in protecting the right to peaceful assembly and protest.

Sunday night’s clashes brought into full display the political and sectarian divisions that protesters have said they want to end.

Hezbollah supporters waving the group’s yellow flag shouted and taunted the protesters. The protesters chanted back, "This is Lebanon, not Iran," and "Terrorist, terrorist, Hezbollah is a terrorist" — the first time they have used such a chant.

The violence began when supporters of Hezbollah and the other main Shiite faction, Amal, attacked protesters who had blocked a main Beirut thoroughfare known as the Ring Road — a move the protesters said was aimed at exerting pressure on politicians to form a new government after Prime Minister Saad Hariri offered his resignation October 29.

Carrying clubs and metal rods, the Hezbollah followers arrived on scooters, chanting pro-Hezbollah slogans. They beat up several protesters. Both sides chanted insults, then threw stones at each other for hours.

Security forces stood between them but did little to stop the fighting. Finally, after several hours, they fired tear gas at both sides to disperse them. The road was eventually opened before daybreak Monday.

By that time, protesters’ tents were destroyed in areas close to the Ring Road. The windshields of cars parked near Riad al-Solh Square and Martyrs Square — the central hubs of the protests — were smashed as were the windows of some shops.

The nationwide protests have so far been overwhelmingly peaceful since they started October 17.

Politicians have failed to agree on a new Cabinet since Hariri’s government resigned.

Hezbollah and Amal insist Hariri form a new government made up of technocrats and politicians, but Hariri — echoing protester demands — says it must be made up only of experts who would focus on Lebanon’s economic crisis.

As the deadlock drags on, tempers are rising.

“The situation is moving toward a dangerous phase because after 40 days of protests, people are beginning to get tired and frustrated and might resort to actions that are out of control,” Kiwan said.

One person has been killed by security forces during the protests, while six have died in incidents related to the demonstrations. In the latest, a man and his sister-in-law burned to death Monday after their car hit a metal barricade erected by protesters on a highway linking Beirut with the country’s south.

Hezbollah issued a statement Monday condemning the road closure, painting the protests as a danger to the country. It called the deaths the result of "a militia attack carried out by groups of bandits who practice the ugliest methods of humiliation and terrorism against people."

In the increasingly tense atmosphere, “the role of the army is getting bigger,” Kiwan said.

The army is one of the few state institutions that enjoy wide support and respect among the public as it is seen as a unifying force in the deeply divided country. It has for the most part worked to defuse tensions and protect protesters, though on two occasions it allowed Hezbollah and Amal supporters to wreck tents at the main protest site in downtown Beirut, said the AP.

Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese general who heads the Middle East Center for Studies and Political Research, said the army is in a “delicate” position and could not have done more than it did Sunday night.

The military is already at the center of a debate in US policy-making circles. The Trump administration is now withholding more than $100 million in US military assistance to Lebanon that has been approved by Congress, without providing an explanation for the hold.

That has raised concerns among some in the US security community who see the aid — largely used to buy US-made military equipment — as key to countering Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Others, however, including pro-Israel lawmakers in Congress, have sought to defund the military, arguing it has been compromised by Hezbollah, which the US designates as a terrorist organization.

US administrations have long believed that a strong Lebanese army could be a counter to Hezbollah's weapons and could deprive the militants of the excuse to keep their arms.

The 70,000-strong force split along sectarian lines during Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war. Since then, it has largely succeeded in achieving a level of stability by maintaining a tough balancing act that includes coordinating with Hezbollah on security matters.

Jaber said it is impossible for the security forces to clash with Hezbollah because "this will lead to divisions within the army."

"Hezbollah is a main part of the Lebanese people,” he said. “Getting the army into a battle with them would lead to pulling away part of the Lebanese army, and this could be followed by other groups splitting from the army."

"The Lebanese army is the pole of the tent. If the pole collapses, the whole country will collapse. It is the duty of the army to protect state institutions."



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia.  Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia. Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia.  Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia. Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, a rare visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a contract allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine nears expiry.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said on Thursday that Kyiv could consider continued transit of Russian gas, but only on condition that Moscow did not receive payment until after the war - a condition it was unlikely to accept, Reuters said.
Putin said that day that it was clear there would be no new deal with Kyiv to send Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and whom will be affected most.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-19.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which spurred the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - which is now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Russia's overall gas exports via the route have held steady despite the
stoppage
of flows from Gazprom to Austria's OMV in mid-November over a contractual dispute, and legal wranglings as other buyers stepped in to buy the volumes.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
The Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but began taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the Black Sea. Turkey sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they will not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for high transit fees imposed on alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees per year from Russian gas transit.
According to Reuters calculations, Gazprom's total pipeline gas exports to Europe via all routes in 2024 have increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed to the lowest level since the 1970s.
Russia could earn around $5 billion on sales via Ukraine this year based on an average Russian government gas price forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss of EU gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it will not do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
Hungary
has been keen to keep the Ukrainian route open, but said it would continue to receive Russian gas from the south, via the TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal.
A senior source at Azeri energy company SOCAR told Reuters on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have failed to agree on the deal brokered by Azerbaijan to continue Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine.