A report by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) said Moscow has become more serious about making changes in Syria because protecting President Bashar Assad has become a burden.
The report hints at the possibility that Russia, Turkey and Iran reach a consensus to remove Assad, and establish a ceasefire in exchange for forming a transitional government that includes the opposition, members of the regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Russia’s clear impatience with Assad emerged two weeks ago following vague and indirect messages urging Damascus to change its behavior.
The RIAC is led by former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and is known to be close to the decision-makers in the Russian government.
The report said that since the beginning of its military intervention in Syria, Moscow has been keen to avoid being presented as the defender of Assad.
It added that in negotiations it has stressed that “the Syrian people will decide whether or not Assad will remain in power”.
Earlier this week, a former Russian ambassador, Alexander Aksenyonok wrote: “It is becoming increasingly obvious that the [Assad] regime is reluctant or unable to develop a system of government that can mitigate corruption and crime.”
Russia’s TASS news agency said Russia is suspecting that Assad is not only no longer able to lead the country, but that the head of the Syrian regime is dragging Moscow towards a scenario similar to the Afghan war, which is a very disconcerting possibility for Russia.
The news agency said Moscow is working on two scenarios: The first sees forces present in Syria accepting each other’s scope of influence.
As a result, Syria would remain divided into a region protected by Tehran and Moscow, the opposition region supported by Turkey, and the East Euphrates supported by Washington and the SDF.
As for the second option, TASS explained it requires a complete withdrawal of all foreign forces and the unification of the country after achieving a political transformation in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
The news agency considered that this option is less costly for all parties.
