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Agreement with IMF Revives Foreign Investment in Egypt

Stacks of money are pictured as an employee counts them at a bank in Cairo September 4, 2014. (Reuters)
Stacks of money are pictured as an employee counts them at a bank in Cairo September 4, 2014. (Reuters)
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Agreement with IMF Revives Foreign Investment in Egypt

Stacks of money are pictured as an employee counts them at a bank in Cairo September 4, 2014. (Reuters)
Stacks of money are pictured as an employee counts them at a bank in Cairo September 4, 2014. (Reuters)

Investments by international funds and foreign investors in the Egyptian market has increased in recent weeks due to the $5.2 billion agreement Cairo signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June.

The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to consider the agreement on Friday, amid expectations that it would allow investors to have more confidence in the Egyptian economy and its central bank’s good management of monetary policies.

According to economic experts, officials in investment banks and bankers, Egypt has succeeded over the past few weeks in obtaining about $8 billion from the international market in the form of bonds, which received unprecedented record demand from international funds.

They told the Middle East News Agency that it also obtained nearly $3 billion from the IMF’s Rapid Financing Facility (RFI).

Head of the Treasury at Egypt’s Industrial Development Bank Haytham Adel said foreign investments in Egyptian treasury bills have jumped to more than $10 billion in June.

He pointed out that they have started to restore their previous rates, which exceeded $23 billion, compared to about $15 billion in late December 2019.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) had previously announced that investors pulled a record $83 billion from developing-world equity and debt markets in March due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Egypt's reputation in international markets now exceeds all emerging countries, and possibly other major countries, Adel noted.

He pointed out that this is the result of its Economic Reform Program and the international confidence in its central bank’s policies.

The Central Bank of Egypt follows “free market” policies in the exchange market, allowing freedom of entry and exit for foreigners, which increased confidence in the Egyptian market.

According to Adel, foreigners left Egypt taking with them more than $15 billion in March and April without any problems and without the waiting lists as in the past.

He said these lists and problems constituted the biggest obstacle to foreign investors to carry out investment projects in Egypt.

However, the central bank succeeded over the past four years in restoring confidence of international institutions and foreigners in the Egyptian market, which reflects the rapid return of international funds to investment in Egypt and their pumping of billions of dollars.

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Business

Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.

Business

IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
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IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

Asian countries will need to keep their powder dry in preparation for future shocks even as they tackle an energy crisis caused by the Iran War, IMF Director for Asia Pacific Krishna Srinivasan said on Thursday.

With energy supplies running short due to the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, southeast Asian economies have budgeted significant sums to cushion the impact of surging prices, and have also introduced measures to conserve energy, including work from home plans.

But Srinivasan, speaking at a media roundtable, warned countries against ramping up energy subsidies.

"If you give generalised subsidies, it's very hard to pull it back," he said, adding that countries should instead provide budget neutral ⁠and targeted fiscal ⁠support, and maintain fiscal discipline.

"In other words, cut elsewhere to support people who are being hit by the energy shock," Reuters quoted him as saying.

Srinivasan said that while some markets, such as Thailand and China, can hold off on tightening monetary policy because they are in deflationary territory, markets already above their inflation targets, including Australia, need to start now.

He also ⁠noted that some markets, such as the Philippines, have decided to tighten preemptively to anchor inflation expectations, but he added that the IMF's advice would have been to see through the shock and wait to see if inflation really picks up in a meaningful way.

"You may want to take insurance upfront or you may want to wait and see so that you don't hurt growth ... it's a very difficult balance to strike as a central bank governor," he said.

The IMF cut its global GDP outlook for 2026 to 3.1% on April 14, assuming ⁠a short-lived Middle ⁠East conflict and oil prices normalising in the second half of the year.

However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the fund's "adverse scenario" of 2.5% growth looked increasingly likely, with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict.

Srinivasan said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond the next three months and oil prices stay elevated for the rest of the year, the IMF's more severe growth scenarios will become more likely.

There are still downside risks to growth, with a number of uncertainties facing the world economy, including the duration of the energy crisis and the severity of fertiliser shortages, which could create a food supply shock, he said.

Business

Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
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Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)

Euro zone inflation surged further in April on soaring energy costs, Eurostat data showed on Thursday, adding to the case for interest rate hikes, even if benign underlying price growth figures ease the urgency of any move.

Inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.0% this month from 2.6% in March, moving further above the European Central Bank's 2% target, with energy costs accounting for the vast majority of the increase.

A closely watched figure ⁠on underlying or 'core' ⁠inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile slowed to 2.2% from 2.3% a month earlier.

Services inflation, a stubbornly high component of the price basket over the past several years, slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% while inflation for non-energy industrial ⁠goods, a key drag on prices picked up to 0.8%.

The figures are a mixed bag for the ECB, which is meeting on Thursday and will likely keep interest rates unchanged, even if it signals that policy tightening is increasingly likely, Reuters reported.

The high headline inflation print strengthens the argument for interest rate hikes but the underlying figures suggest that the initial energy shock is not yet creating major ⁠second round effects.

The ⁠ECB is largely powerless against an energy shock but must step in if these second round effects become visible as they risk creating a hard-to-break self-sustaining inflation spiral.

This is why investors expect the ECB to hike its 2% deposit rate already in June and see at least two more moves before the end of the year.

This outlook is volatile, however, and largely depends on developments in the Iran war and oil prices, which hit a four-year-high of $124 on Thursday.