Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The US Dollar

In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The US Dollar

In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

The lines snaked around the block. Then they swelled to fill the whole street, before they turned into a raucous mob of men shoving to the front of the line. There at the exchange bureau, they could buy rationed dollars, the hottest commodity in Lebanon.

The small Mediterranean country´s financial meltdown has thrown Lebanese into a frantic search for dollars as their local currency's value evaporates. To get the precious hard currency, they must navigate labyrinthine regulations, exploiting any loopholes they can to rescue their earnings.

Every transaction, from doctor fees to store purchases to rent, is negotiated day by day, juggling the tumbling Lebanese pound and multiple, changing dollar exchange rates. Those who can are snapping up luxury goods or real estate, trying to use their dollars trapped in bank accounts frozen by the cash-strapped authorities.

The turmoil is deepening resentment of the political elite and the once flourishing banking system - and fueling desperation.

"They are going to crash us into a wall," Chris Georgian, a 25-year-old student, said, trying to buy $600 at an exchange bureau to send for his university fees in Armenia.

Last week, a 61-year-old man apparently distraught over his economic situation shot and killed himself on a Beirut commercial street, one of multiple suicides during the crisis.

Despite survival skills honed by political tension and wars, nothing prepared Lebanese for having to line up to buy money.

During the 15-year civil war and Israel´s invasion and occupation of the south and Beirut, there may have been queues for water or bread, but Lebanon was always flush with dollars.

Since 1997, the local currency, the pound, was pegged at around 1,500 to the dollar, and Lebanese used the two interchangeably.

That stability was built on what experts say was essentially a Ponzi scheme that let banks and the elite profit while allowing Lebanese to live beyond their means.

Successive governments borrowed from private banks to finance massive public debt and pay for vital imports like fuel - but also luxury goods - eating into depositors´ dollar accounts. Most of those deposits were from Lebanese expats attracted by high-interest rates.

It collapsed when remittances and direct foreign investments plunged in recent years.

In the ensuing liquidity crunch, the pound has lost nearly 85% of its value. Tens of thousands have fallen into poverty, wages are worth only a fraction of what they once were, and prices are skyrocketing - stripping Lebanon of its trademark joie de vivre and vibrancy.

Chain retailers have shut down, unable to import or price goods with the fluctuating rates. Some vendors have either closed or only take payment in dollars.

Dollar accounts have been frozen, and those trapped dollars have become "Monopoly money" with no value outside Lebanon, said Dan Azzi, a former banker and analyst. He coined a name for that currency, the "Lollar" or Lebanese dollar.

People began hoarding cash dollars, getting relatives living abroad to transfer dollars, which - unlike frozen local accounts - can be withdrawn from the bank.

Some sell gold for dollars. "We buy gold at the highest price $39-$55 and in cash," reads one jeweler´s marketing telephone message.

The peg remains in place officially, even as the black market price of a dollar has spiraled to at least five times that. Meanwhile, authorities imposed rationing on exchange bureaus, limiting how many dollars a person can buy and setting a rate higher than the peg but lower than the black market.

That fanned the raucous lines. Some bought dollars only to sell them on the black market. New phone apps cropped up to keep track of multiple rates.

"Isn´t all this humiliating?" said Elie, a security guard keeping order at an exchange bureau. "When senior officials were making money, we were getting some of it. Now they aren´t anymore, so they deny it to us," he said, declining to give his last name because of his job.

Many scramble for ways to use their trapped "Lollars," fearing they could eventually lose them completely.

Lines formed outside luxury retailer Louis Vuitton because it was selling at a rate half the black market. Others use stuck dollars to settle bank loans, still valued at the official peg. Azzi estimates loans up to $15 billion have been paid already.

Ghassan Frem, a dentist, paid a friend´s loan of over $30,000 with his "Lollars." She paid him the money in an account abroad. It is a win-win: He uses his "dead" dollars, and the friend settles her loan at a discount.

Meanwhile, Frem bought $950-worth of new air conditioners on his credit card. The trick is: He pays his credit card bill at the official rate with pounds he bought on the black market for far fewer dollars.

Many use this loophole, buying merchandise or doing renovations whether they need it or not, to rescue trapped dollars.

"Anyone who can get back at the banks is doing some good," Frem said. "We do to them what they have done to us."

On social media, some proposed organizing a peer-to-peer platform to avoid using banks.

Meanwhile, real estate transactions jumped more than 16% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the General Directorate of Land Registry. One of Lebanon´s largest real estate companies, Solidere, reported a profit for the first time since 2018.

For his dental clinic, Frem negotiates purchasing supplies item by item, hour by hour. One Monday afternoon, he ordered a product and by the time it arrived the next day, the dollar price had gone up 20%. "The delivery guy got a text message with the new price when he arrived," Frem said.

For Georgian, the student, his education is on the line.

A third-year psychology student in a Yerevan university, he returned to Lebanon because of coronavirus. With his parents´ dollars locked up, he has to chase dollars to finance his return.

At the exchange office, he asked the guard to walk him through the documents he needed. Under new rules to curb profiteering, you must prove you need rationed dollars to pay education fees, rent, medical fees or salaries for foreign workers. No one gets cash - the dollars you buy are sent directly to the destination.

Still, Georgian was relieved. His school fees are $600, and the cost for that at the exchange is about half what it would be on the black market, saving him enough to live for months in Yerevan.

"If the dollar keeps rising, I will never go back," he said. "I will lose my education."

Georgian questioned his parents´ decision to remain in Lebanon despite constant complaints of corruption.

"They said they didn´t think it will be this bad," he said, shaking his head.



Al-Rumayyan: PIF Investments in Local Content Exceed $157 Billion

Yasir Al-Rumayyan speaks to the audience in the opening speech of the Public Investment Fund Private Sector Forum (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Yasir Al-Rumayyan speaks to the audience in the opening speech of the Public Investment Fund Private Sector Forum (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Al-Rumayyan: PIF Investments in Local Content Exceed $157 Billion

Yasir Al-Rumayyan speaks to the audience in the opening speech of the Public Investment Fund Private Sector Forum (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Yasir Al-Rumayyan speaks to the audience in the opening speech of the Public Investment Fund Private Sector Forum (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), announced that spending by the sovereign fund’s programs, initiatives, and companies on local content reached 591 billion riyals ($157 billion) between 2020 and 2024.

He added that the fund’s private sector platform has created more than 190 investment opportunities worth over 40 billion riyals ($10 billion).

Speaking at the opening of the PIF Private Sector Forum on Monday in Riyadh, Al-Rumayyan said the fund is working closely with the private sector to deepen the impact of previous achievements and build an integrated economic system that drives sustainable growth through a comprehensive investment cycle methodology.

He described the forum as the largest platform of its kind for seizing partnership and collaboration opportunities with the private sector, highlighting the fund’s success in turning discussions into tangible projects.

Since 2023, the forum has attracted 25,000 participants from both public and private sectors and has witnessed the signing of over 140 agreements worth more than 15 billion riyals, he pointed out.

Al-Rumayyan emphasized that the meeting comes at a pivotal stage of the Kingdom’s economy, where competitiveness will reach higher levels, sectors and value chains will mature, and ambitions will be raised.

PIF Private Sector Forum aims to support the fund’s strategic initiative to engage the private sector, showcase commercial opportunities across PIF and its portfolio companies, highlight potential prospects for investors and suppliers, and enhance cooperation to strengthen the local economy.


Pakistan’s Finance Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Draw Inspiration from Saudi Arabia

The Pakistani Finance Minister during his meeting with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference (SPA)
The Pakistani Finance Minister during his meeting with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference (SPA)
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Pakistan’s Finance Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Draw Inspiration from Saudi Arabia

The Pakistani Finance Minister during his meeting with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference (SPA)
The Pakistani Finance Minister during his meeting with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference (SPA)

Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb discussed the future of his country, which has frequently experienced a boom-and-bust cycle, saying Pakistan has relied on International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs due to the absence of structural reforms.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Aurangzeb acknowledged that Pakistan has relied on IMF programs 24 times not as a coincidence, but rather as a result of the absence of structural reforms and follow-up.

He stressed the government has decided to "double its efforts" to stay on the reform path, no matter the challenges, affirming that Islamabad not only has a reform roadmap, but also draws inspiration from "Saudi Vision 2030" as a unique model of discipline and turning plans into reality.

Revolution of Numbers

Aurangzeb reviewed the dramatic transformation in macroeconomic indicators. After foreign exchange reserves covered only two weeks of imports, current policies have succeeded in raising them to two and a half months.

He also pointed out to the government's success in curbing inflation, which has fallen from a peak of 38 percent to 10.5 percent, while reducing the fiscal deficit to 5 percent after being around 8 percent.

Aurangzeb commented on the "financial stability" principle put forward by his Saudi counterpart, Mohammed Aljadaan, considering it the cornerstone that enabled Pakistan to regain its lost fiscal space.

He explained that the success in achieving primary surpluses and reducing the deficit was not merely academic figures, but rather transformed into solid "financial buffers" that saved the country.

The minister cited the vast difference in dealing with disasters. While Islamabad had to launch an urgent international appeal for assistance during the 2022 floods, the "fiscal space" and buffers it recently built enabled it to deal with wider climate disasters by relying on its own resources, without having to search "haphazardly" for urgent external aid, proving that macroeconomic stability is the first shield to protect economic sovereignty.

Privatization and Breaking the Stalemate of State-Owned Enterprises

Aurangzeb affirmed that the Pakistani Prime Minister adopts a clear vision that "the private sector is what leads the state."

He revealed the handover of 24 government institutions to the privatization committee, noting that the successful privatization of Pakistan International Airlines in December provided a "momentum" for the privatization of other firms.

Aurangzeb also revealed radical reforms in the tax system to raise it from 10 percent to 12 percent of GDP, with the adoption of a customs tariff system that reduces local protection to make Pakistani industry more competitive globally, in parallel with reducing the size of the federal government.

Partnership with Riyadh

As for the relationship with Saudi Arabia, Aurangzeb outlined the features of a historic transformation, stressing that Pakistan wants to move from "aid and loans" to "trade and investment."

He expressed his great admiration for "Vision 2030," not only as an ambition, but as a model that achieved its targets ahead of schedule.

He revealed a formal Pakistani request to benefit from Saudi "technical knowledge and administrative expertise" in implementing economic transformations, stressing that his country's need for this executive discipline and the Kingdom's ability to manage major transformations is no less important than the need for direct financing, to ensure the building of a resilient economy led by exports, not debts.


Oil Drops 1% as US, Iran Pledge to Continue Talks

The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
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Oil Drops 1% as US, Iran Pledge to Continue Talks

The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)

Oil prices fell 1% on Monday as immediate fears of a conflict in the Middle East eased after the US and Iran pledged to continue talks about Tehran's nuclear program over the weekend, calming investors anxious about supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 67 cents, or 1%, to $67.38 a barrel on Monday by 0444 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.94 a barrel, down 61 cents, or 1%.

"With more talks on the horizon the immediate ‌fear of supply disruptions ‌in the Middle East has eased ‌quite ⁠a bit," IG ‌market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Iran and the US pledged to continue the indirect nuclear talks following what both sides described as positive discussions on Friday in Oman despite differences. That allayed fears that failure to reach a deal might nudge the Middle East closer to war, as the US has positioned more military forces in the area.

Investors are also worried about possible disruptions to supply ⁠from Iran and other regional producers as exports equal to about a fifth of the world's ‌total oil consumption pass through the Strait of ‍Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

Both ‍benchmarks fell more than 2% last week on the easing tensions, their ‍first decline in seven weeks.

However, Iran's foreign minister said on Saturday Tehran will strike US bases in the Middle East if it is attacked by US forces, showing the threat of conflict is still alive.

"Volatility remains elevated as conflicting rhetoric persists. Any negative headlines could quickly reignite risk premiums in oil prices this week," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at ⁠Phillip Nova.

Investors are also continuing to grapple with efforts to curb Russian income from its oil exports for its war in Ukraine. The European Commission on Friday proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia's seaborne crude oil exports.

Refiners in India, once the biggest buyer of Russia's seaborne crude, are avoiding purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, which could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington.

"Oil markets will remain sensitive to how broadly this pivot away from Russian crude unfolds, whether ‌India’s reduced purchases persist beyond April, and how quickly alternative flows can be brought online," Sachdeva said.