French President Emmanuel Macron is adopting the carrot and stick approach in his talks with the Lebanese political elite. He reiterated that any support to Lebanon to overcome its financial and economic crisis should be closely linked to the implementation of actual reforms.
The French president warned that leaving Lebanon alone and refraining from helping it “means going into civil war.” He is aware that he is putting his credibility and that of his country at stake if he fails to push Lebanese officials to cooperate.
On his second trip to Beirut, he told the US newspaper Politico that he was making a “risky bet”.
“It’s a risky bet I’m making, I am aware of it … I am putting the only thing I have on the table: my political capital,” he told the daily.
But Macron has sought to collect all the necessary papers that he can use successively, within the framework of enticement and intimidation, while stressing on every occasion that he did “not interfere in Lebanese affairs”, and that he only wanted to help Lebanon by giving the current authorities “the last chance” to save the country.
Macron was the only head of state to rush to Beirut less than 48 hours after the Aug. 4 port explosion. A series of visits and aid shipments followed after him. The French president did not arrive empty-handed as aid poured in, and a team of 750 people, including about 500 soldiers, arrived in Lebanon with their heavy equipment to start removing the rubble, and another team to extend a helping hand in the investigation of the recent disaster.
He then organized an international meeting that resulted in commitments of 250 million euros of aid. Given the complexities of the Lebanese file, Macron engaged the French diplomacy in a broad campaign to pave the political path and provide the conditions in order to fill the institutional vacuum and bring in a new government.
For this purpose, he expanded his network of contacts at the regional and international levels seeking to obtain something like a “mandate.”
Moreover, Paris worked on elaborating reform proposals it deems necessary to persuade the Lebanon Support Group and the international financial institutions to stand by the stricken country.
During his meeting with representatives of civil society groups and the United Nations representatives working at the port on Tuesday, Macron said that Paris was ready to call for a new international conference towards mid or end of October under the auspices of the United Nations to “mobilize the international community” to provide support to Lebanon.
In return, based on the French president’s statements in Beirut and sources in the Elysée Palace, Paris wants the establishment of a “mission government”, which would adopt a reform program, obtain the Parliament’s confidence and work to implement the required reforms.
Macron also wants credible commitments by political party leaders that this time they would commit to the recovery plan with a specific timetable and follow-up mechanism to make sure the pledges are implemented.
He reiterated in Beirut that he would not go back on his demands, but without directly interfering in Lebanese internal affairs.
On Monday, Le Figaro newspaper reported that Macron hinted at sanctions on his return flight following his first official visit to Beirut.
“Yes - we are thinking about sanctions, but we have to do them with the Americans in order for them to be effective,” Macron was quoted by the newspaper as saying.
Sources cited by the newspaper said that the French president “began working on a plan to impose a system of sanctions that includes specific names”.
The sources added that the list would include personalities from all confessions, including Speaker Nabih Berri, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, former Foreign Minister MP Gebran Bassil, the two daughters of President Michel Aoun and presidential advisor Salim Jreissati, in addition to Cedrus Bank, which was described as the bank of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) that was founded by Aoun.
Among the sanctions that can be imposed is preventing these figures and others from traveling to the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes 37 developed countries across the world, and to freeze their funds and assets.
Will things get this far? The answer depends on the developments in the next few weeks.
