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In Crisis-Hit Lebanon, Paris and Washington at Odds over Hezbollah

Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
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In Crisis-Hit Lebanon, Paris and Washington at Odds over Hezbollah

Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)

When it comes to Lebanon, the US and France have similar outlooks, but one major point of difference involves the Hezbollah movement -- shunned by Washington but tolerated by a pragmatic Parisian leadership.

While the United States seeks to isolate and curb the influence of the Iran-backed group it has designated a "terrorist" organization and punished with sanctions, France recognizes it as a key political actor whose cooperation is needed to lift Lebanon out of crisis.

Lebanon's government stepped down last month amid popular anger over a massive blast at Beirut's port on August 4 that killed 191 people, wounded thousands and ravaged large parts of the capital.

Both Western powers have agreed Lebanon needs a cabinet different from its predecessors to tackle urgent reforms, but all consensus seems to end there.

"France's approach tends to be more realistic," analyst Karim Bitar told AFP.

"France views Lebanon as it is, while the (US President Donald) Trump administration tends to view Lebanon as it would like it to be."

The US view is that Hezbollah -- the only group not to have disarmed after the 1975-1990 civil war -- holds excessive influence in Lebanon, "which needs to be contained", Bitar said.

But Paris recognizes "Hezbollah in Lebanon is a major political actor, that it has a wide captive constituency in Lebanon's Shiite community, that it is here to stay," he added.

Two facets of Hezbollah
The United States has been following closely as French President Emmanuel Macron twice visited Lebanon since August 4 to press for political change and reforms to unlock financial aid.

During his last trip, the French leader differentiated between two facets of Hezbollah -- one "terrorist", and the other, a political party "elected by the people" to parliament and allied with the Lebanese president's party that could not be excluded from talks.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been notably positive about Macron's visits, not labelling them as "foreign interference" as he might have done for such a move by the US.

The party’s parliamentary bloc leader, Mohammad Raad, was among lawmakers who met Macron before he said all sides had agreed to form a new government within a fortnight.

France, which has outlined a roadmap for reforms for the next government, "wants to maintain a channel of dialogue with Hezbollah in order to prevent the destabilization of Lebanon", Bitar said.

Paris views itself as "an honest broker" to do this in a time when tensions are at a peak between Washington and Tehran.

Observers say France is one of the only Western powers to have maintained direct contact with Hezbollah, pointing to the role of the current French ambassador, who formerly held the same post in Tehran.

"There has always been direct contact between Paris and Hezbollah," an Arab diplomat in Beirut told AFP.

And as Washington is caught up in preparing for the US presidential polls, it appears to be giving France some leeway on Lebanon.

"The Americans have set as a condition that Hezbollah not take part in the (next) government, but they could turn a blind eye to them remaining if there were a deal and reforms," the diplomat said.

Hezbollah 'cannot be trusted'
US Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, also visiting Lebanon last week, told Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar that the US appreciated the French initiative, but differed on a few details, including that Hezbollah was not a legitimate political organization but a "terrorist" group.

He did not meet with key political figures, instead seeing army chief Joseph Aoun, lawmakers who resigned after the port blast, civil society activists and Shiite figures opposed to Hezbollah.

One such Shiite figure told AFP that Schenker said during their meeting that Hezbollah "cannot be trusted" to lead reforms.

"Hezbollah has been given ample opportunity since 2005 to really involve itself in the state and has not changed its behavior," the source reported Schenker as saying.

The United States has demanded Hezbollah lay down its weapons, but also echoed the call of a political minority in Lebanon that the country be "neutral", meaning that it break ties with Iran and distance itself from the region's conflicts.

Most Lebanese political sides, however, have accepted that the party is a military force to contend with and a political actor present in all branches of state, which, with its allies, currently dominates parliament.

Responding to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling for Hezbollah's weapons to be dealt with as a priority, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in a televised interview last week responded that the solution would come through politics.

"Let Pompeo forget the rockets for now. That matter will be solved through politics when the time is right," he said.

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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.