Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)

Iran and the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are two threats facing Israel, according to Brigadier General Dror Shalom, head of the Research Division of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate.

Shalom told Yedioth Ahronoth daily that the threat of terrorism is increasing especially that the youth in Judea and Samaria, in the West Bank, can’t earn a living amid the coronavirus pandemic and its economic repercussions.

He highlighted three main reasons that contributed to maintaining stability including the Israeli army, the “somehow acceptable” economic situation, and the security coordination with the Palestinians before it was suspended.

The official indicated that despite signing two peace treaties with the UAE and Bahrain, the Palestinian cause is a “ticking bomb”.

He explained that the Palestinian cause brings Arab states together, and the two peace treaties were signed because the plans to annex parts of the West Bank were postponed.

“Empowering the Palestinian Authority is within the interest of Israel’s security," said Shalom, warning that Arabs still hate Israel and “the situation in the region should be improved."

Asked about the situation in the Gaza Strip, Shalom said it remains a challenge even if it is a “secondary front" now.

The official admitted that the situation could escalate, noting that four years ago, the Israeli intelligence issued a strategic alert on the Strip.

Studies showed there is a civil-economic crisis in Gaza, which would push Hamas to change its policy, noted Shalom.

He also said Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is a different kind of leader who is interested in showing his success in reconstructing Gaza, adding that Sinwar does not seek a war in the Strip and Hamas is fully aware of the strength of the Israeli army.

Shalom indicated that Tel Aviv managed to push Hamas into “rock-bottom” without engaging in a war, adding that maintaining the current situation in Gaza is favorable so that Israel can focus on Iran.

On Iran, Shalom said that so far, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal has not served Israel's interests. He supports a strategy of pressuring Tehran, noting that Iran as a superpower has weakened.

The future US strategy includes exerting maximum pressure until reaching a deal.

Iran is capable of possessing a nuclear bomb within two years of its decision to build one, which worries Shalom, given that the duration is not long.



'Resistance' Axis without Voice as It Loses Narrative, Psychological Warfare Architects

Yemenis watch a speech by “Abu Ubaida,” spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, whom Israel said it killed in August 2024 (file photo, EPA)
Yemenis watch a speech by “Abu Ubaida,” spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, whom Israel said it killed in August 2024 (file photo, EPA)
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'Resistance' Axis without Voice as It Loses Narrative, Psychological Warfare Architects

Yemenis watch a speech by “Abu Ubaida,” spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, whom Israel said it killed in August 2024 (file photo, EPA)
Yemenis watch a speech by “Abu Ubaida,” spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, whom Israel said it killed in August 2024 (file photo, EPA)

Since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, the confrontation in the Middle East has not been limited to missiles and drones, but has expanded to a parallel front no less dangerous: the architects of narratives and psychological warfare.

Military spokesmen and media figures emerged, some masked, some officers, others operating in the shadows. Together, they formed the backbone of the “resistance” narrative, shaping the battle over narrative, imagery, and public perception under the broad umbrella of forces allied with Iran.

They were not merely voices for their factions or armies. They acted as architects of an integrated discourse, waging a war that targeted adversaries and audiences alike. Beneath them operated sprawling networks of platforms, activists, and media arms that reproduced and amplified messaging across digital and traditional media, reinforcing the narratives of Iran’s regional allies.

As military operations escalated, from Gaza to Lebanon and on to the latest war involving Iran, this apparatus came under concentrated strikes. Some of its most prominent figures were removed, leaving the axis narrative without many of its key voices.

Naeini, architect of “cognitive warfare”

Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, was killed at dawn on Friday, March 20, 2026, in a US-Israeli strike, removing one of the most prominent figures behind the force’s messaging during one of the war’s most sensitive phases.

Naini, 69, had served as the Guards’ official spokesman and deputy for public relations since July 2024, a role that extended beyond traditional media duties to managing political messaging and consolidating the institution’s narrative at home and abroad.

Hours before his death was announced, Fars, the news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, attributed remarks to him saying the missile industry deserved “full marks.”

Naini stood out during the 12-day war in June 2025 and in the current conflict as a key architect of “psychological warfare” in Iran’s official discourse.

In his media appearances, he framed the confrontation as a multi-layered war, psychological, cognitive, technological, and military, stressing the importance of narrative, imagery, and public perception in shaping battlefield outcomes.

He repeatedly highlighted the media's role in “telling the story of the battlefield” and countering the adversary’s “cognitive warfare,” arguing that the opposing side aimed not only to strike military capabilities but also to dismantle the state and weaken internal cohesion.

Before his death, Naini continued to warn of “surprises” and emphasized Iran’s capacity for deterrence. His killing, therefore, marked not only a media loss, but also a blow to a figure who managed the battle of messaging and psychological influence alongside the military campaign.

“Askari,” the shadow envoy

“Abu Ali al-Askari” was less an individual than a complex media and security function. He acted as a conduit between battlefield decision-making and media messaging, and as a tool for setting the political tempo in line with Iran’s vision in Iraq.

His death was announced on March 16, 2026, after rocket attacks targeted sites in Baghdad, including a house in the Karrada district believed to be hosting a meeting of armed faction leaders. There were also indications he may have been targeted in other strikes east of the capital.

Even so, his identity and the circumstances of his death remained shrouded in the ambiguity that underpinned his influence.

His role extended to setting rules of engagement, defining the political weight of local Sunni and Kurdish actors, and signaling pressure on Iraq’s external alignments, including ties with the Arab world, the Gulf, and the broader international environment.

In that sense, he functioned as an effective instrument guiding Iraq’s political process toward outcomes aligned with Iran’s approach.

Abu Ubaida, the masked voice

Abu Ubaida became a prominent media symbol through his masked appearances and rhetoric that blended threat with psychological mobilization. Over two decades, he led the Qassam media apparatus and helped establish a distinct visual and vocal identity that resonated widely.

His prominence grew sharply during Israel’s 2014 war on the Gaza Strip, which lasted about 55 days. During that conflict, he served as a key link between fighters in tunnels and various combat units, as well as between Gaza’s population and the outside world.

He gained broad popularity within Palestine and across the Arab world for his credibility. He was not prone to exaggeration in describing military operations and was noted for his eloquence and command of Arabic.

Abu Ubaida’s first recorded appearances date back to 2002 and 2003, when he was introduced as a field official in the Qassam Brigades. He later held his first news conference on Oct. 2, 2004, at al-Nour mosque in northern Gaza, where he announced a series of operations carried out against Israeli forces and tanks under the banner “Days of Rage.”

He was killed on Aug. 30, 2025, in an Israeli airstrike targeting a building in Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood, where he was present, according to the Israeli account.

Mohammad Afif, the message craftsman

Mohammad Afif was among Hezbollah’s leading media strategists, overseeing media relations and shaping political messaging over many years, and maintaining close ties to the group’s leadership.

His role became particularly prominent after the killing of Hezbollah leaders in 2024, when he stepped in to fill a sensitive media vacuum.

Some commentators likened him to former Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, arguing that he projected “illusory heroics” and that his messaging diverged from reality.

Researchers say Afif held media responsibilities within Hezbollah for more than 30 years, served as a media adviser to Hassan Nasrallah, built extensive ties with Lebanese and Arab journalists, helped develop the group’s media operations, and at one stage managed Al Manar television.

His assassination, they said, marked a significant escalation in Israeli efforts to pressure the resistance in Lebanon.

Afif was killed on Nov. 17, 2024, in an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut’s Ras al Nabaa district, one of several attacks targeting Hezbollah’s media infrastructure.

Abu Hamza, Saraya’s masked spokesman

Abu Hamza was one of the most prominent media figures among Palestinian factions, serving as the military spokesman for Saraya al-Quds since 2014.

He adopted a direct, tightly focused rhetoric linking military operations to psychological impact, particularly in relation to the issue of prisoners.

His real name, Naji Maher Abu Saif, was revealed only after his death, following years in which he was known simply as “the masked man” to protect his identity.

He was killed on March 18, 2025, in an Israeli airstrike targeting his home in central Gaza, which also killed several members of his family.ch


Lebanon: 350 Hezbollah Members Killed Since Start of New Round of War

Mourners chant slogans as they carry the coffin of Ali Ahmad Mousawi, who was killed early Wednesday by an Israeli strike, during his funeral procession in Nabi Sheet village, in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024.   (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Mourners chant slogans as they carry the coffin of Ali Ahmad Mousawi, who was killed early Wednesday by an Israeli strike, during his funeral procession in Nabi Sheet village, in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
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Lebanon: 350 Hezbollah Members Killed Since Start of New Round of War

Mourners chant slogans as they carry the coffin of Ali Ahmad Mousawi, who was killed early Wednesday by an Israeli strike, during his funeral procession in Nabi Sheet village, in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024.   (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Mourners chant slogans as they carry the coffin of Ali Ahmad Mousawi, who was killed early Wednesday by an Israeli strike, during his funeral procession in Nabi Sheet village, in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

The war between Hezbollah and Israel has seen a shift in media handling, particularly regarding announcements of casualties. After initially adopting, at the start of the 2024 war, a policy of near-daily announcements, the group later gradually reduced such statements before halting them altogether. This approach continues in the current fighting, with obituary notices largely absent or confined to a limited local scope in the villages and towns from which the members originate, for security, psychological and political reasons.

From public obituaries to limited disclosure

In the first weeks of the 2024 war, Hezbollah issued successive statements naming those killed, publishing their photos and hometowns, alongside public funeral ceremonies. This approach later receded, with fewer statements issued before they nearly stopped entirely by late September 2024, when the announced toll stood at 450.

By the end of the war in November 2024, estimates put the death toll at about 4,000, including those killed in what is referred to as the “pager operation,” according to estimates rather than official figures from Hezbollah.

On Thursday, Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X that forces from the 36th Division and the air force had “eliminated more than 20 Hezbollah members within 24 hours in southern Lebanon.”

350 members killed since start of war

Researcher Mohammad Chamseddine, from the International Information organization, told Asharq Al-Awsat the number of Hezbollah members killed so far was estimated at around 350, out of 1,001 deaths announced by Lebanon’s health ministry.

He said most were killed in the “Nabi Sheet landing” on March 7 and in clashes along the border, particularly in Khiam, where 53 members were killed. The estimates are based on the number of bodies transferred to hospitals across regions, excluding a very small number buried immediately, he added.

He said the majority of those killed were civilians or supporters rather than members, amid Israeli strikes targeting areas close to the group, while it has adopted strict measures to protect its members. Since September 2024, Hezbollah’s announcements have been limited to “senior figures,” as part of a policy aimed at reducing the impact on its support base as the toll rises.

Reducing security exposure

Retired brigadier general and military expert Hassan Jouni said Hezbollah’s decision not to announce the deaths of its members during the war was due to overlapping factors.

“The first is morale. Daily announcements, with rising casualties, have a negative impact on the support base and reflect losses that may be interpreted as an indicator of the enemy’s superiority,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He also cited security considerations, saying such statements could reveal sensitive information about identities, family ties and places of residence that could be exploited using modern technology to identify and target specific communities.

“Missing without a trace”

Jouni also pointed to those classified as “missing without a trace,” whose fate remains unknown and whose deaths are not announced due to the uncertainty surrounding their status.

He said the nature and intensity of the fighting, along with Hezbollah’s decentralized structure, made it difficult to determine the fate of some individuals. Loss of contact does not necessarily indicate death, as individuals may still be alive or captured, he said, requiring caution before any official announcement.

After a ceasefire took effect on Nov. 27, 2024, estimates indicated around 1,500 individuals were classified by Hezbollah as of “unknown fate,” with families informed of lost contact. This was followed by the recovery of bodies and DNA testing to confirm identities before announcements were made.

Most bodies were returned and buried, while some families were informed their relatives remained “missing without a trace,” meaning no remains had been found or recovery was unlikely due to destruction caused by strikes on homes and villages. Their number is estimated at about 45.


Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Attacks on Oil and Industrial Facilities in Gulf States

Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Attacks on Oil and Industrial Facilities in Gulf States
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Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Attacks on Oil and Industrial Facilities in Gulf States

Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Attacks on Oil and Industrial Facilities in Gulf States

The Arab Parliament condemned the blatant Iranian attacks that targeted oil and industrial facilities in several Gulf states, describing them as a dangerous and unprecedented escalation, and a highly perilous development that threatens the security and stability of the region and exposes global energy security to grave risks.

In a statement, Arab Parliament Speaker Mohammed Al Yamahi affirmed that these hostile acts constitute a flagrant violation of the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, which prohibit targeting civilian and economic facilities, SPA reported.

He also stressed that targeting oil and industrial infrastructure is not only an infringement upon the sovereignty of Arab states, but also a direct threat to the stability of global energy markets, undermining international efforts aimed at ensuring the security of supplies.

Additionally, Al Yamahi reiterated the Arab Parliament’s full solidarity with the Gulf Arab states and its support for all legitimate measures they take to protect their sovereignty, security, and safeguard their vital resources and facilities.