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Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)

Iran and the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are two threats facing Israel, according to Brigadier General Dror Shalom, head of the Research Division of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate.

Shalom told Yedioth Ahronoth daily that the threat of terrorism is increasing especially that the youth in Judea and Samaria, in the West Bank, can’t earn a living amid the coronavirus pandemic and its economic repercussions.

He highlighted three main reasons that contributed to maintaining stability including the Israeli army, the “somehow acceptable” economic situation, and the security coordination with the Palestinians before it was suspended.

The official indicated that despite signing two peace treaties with the UAE and Bahrain, the Palestinian cause is a “ticking bomb”.

He explained that the Palestinian cause brings Arab states together, and the two peace treaties were signed because the plans to annex parts of the West Bank were postponed.

“Empowering the Palestinian Authority is within the interest of Israel’s security," said Shalom, warning that Arabs still hate Israel and “the situation in the region should be improved."

Asked about the situation in the Gaza Strip, Shalom said it remains a challenge even if it is a “secondary front" now.

The official admitted that the situation could escalate, noting that four years ago, the Israeli intelligence issued a strategic alert on the Strip.

Studies showed there is a civil-economic crisis in Gaza, which would push Hamas to change its policy, noted Shalom.

He also said Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is a different kind of leader who is interested in showing his success in reconstructing Gaza, adding that Sinwar does not seek a war in the Strip and Hamas is fully aware of the strength of the Israeli army.

Shalom indicated that Tel Aviv managed to push Hamas into “rock-bottom” without engaging in a war, adding that maintaining the current situation in Gaza is favorable so that Israel can focus on Iran.

On Iran, Shalom said that so far, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal has not served Israel's interests. He supports a strategy of pressuring Tehran, noting that Iran as a superpower has weakened.

The future US strategy includes exerting maximum pressure until reaching a deal.

Iran is capable of possessing a nuclear bomb within two years of its decision to build one, which worries Shalom, given that the duration is not long.

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Arab World

Egypt, Somalia Hold Talks to Boost Cooperation in Horn of Africa

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
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Egypt, Somalia Hold Talks to Boost Cooperation in Horn of Africa

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

Egypt and Somalia held new consultations on Monday as part of their high-level coordination that started early this year after Addis Ababa signed a deal with the breakaway Somaliland region, allowing it access to the Red Sea for trade and military purposes.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh on the sidelines of the Extraordinary Arab and Islamic Summit.

The meeting came to affirm Egypt’s contribution to the new peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the current African Union mission by January 2025.

It also came two days after Mogadishu excluded Addis Ababa from the mission due to its violations against Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that consultations in Riyadh between the two ministers are a continuation of the process of strengthening Egyptian-Somali cooperation in the Horn of Africa in light of the rising risks both countries currently face due to Ethiopia’s behavior that threatens regional stability.

They noted that such cooperation would be fruitful for the region and could expand to include Eritrea and other countries, something Addis Ababa will consider a threat.

The experts expect Ethiopia either to retract its illegal positions regarding the Renaissance Dam and its deal with the Somaliland region, or cause additional escalation and tension in the region.

Last January, Ethiopia signed an initial agreement with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland to use its Red Sea port.

The MoU grants Ethiopia 20-km access to the Red Sea, specifically in the Berbera port, for a 50-year period.

In return, Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as a republic, which has not been internationally recognized since it broke away from Somalia in 1991.

The port deal with Somaliland faced opposition from Egypt and other Arab nations.

It also sparked tighter relations between Egypt and Somalia. In August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a military cooperation agreement in Cairo.

Later that month, Somalia announced the arrival of Egyptian military equipment and personnel in Mogadishu in the fight against the Al Shabab terrorist group.

On Saturday, Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur officially announced that the Ethiopian troops will not be part of the forthcoming AUSSOM. He said Ethiopia was excluded due to its “violations against Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

During his meeting on Monday with the Somali FM, Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s unwavering stance in supporting Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting any foreign interference in its internal affairs, according to an Egyptian FM statement released on Tuesday.

He confirmed his country’s participation in the peacekeeping forces in Mogadishu and strengthening cooperation with Eritrea in the region.

The FM expressed Cairo’s commitment to continue coordinating with his Somali counterpart to follow up on the pledge made by the leaders of Egypt and Eritrea in early October to provide comprehensive support to Somalia.

Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s support for the Somali federal government’s efforts to combat terrorism and uphold the state’s sovereignty over its entire territory.

For his part, Fiqi expressed deep appreciation for Egypt’s unwavering support in helping his country combat terrorism, assert its sovereignty, and uphold its unity and territorial integrity.

Ambassador Salah Halima, Former Assistant Minister for Sudan's affairs in Egypt, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Egyptian assurances are part of both countries’ efforts to strengthen cooperation.

“This growing partnership, that also involves Eritrea, may expand to include other countries and would achieve development and stability in the region,” Halima said. “But Ethiopia, with its hostile actions towards Egypt and Somalia, will be the cause of continued escalation and tension,” he warned.

Sudanese expert on African affairs Abdul Nasser Haj said the current Egyptian-Somali understandings are completely consistent with events happening in the Horn of Africa region, especially Ethiopia’s escalating acts concerning the Renaissance Dam and its port deal with Somaliland.