Stocks Sweat on US Election Race, Safe-Haven Bonds Gain

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
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Stocks Sweat on US Election Race, Safe-Haven Bonds Gain

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo

Share markets were whipsawed, while bonds and the dollar gained on Wednesday as results from the US presidential election proved far closer than polls had predicted, potentially leaving the outcome in doubt for days or weeks.

Democratic contender Joe Biden took to the air to declare he was optimistic about winning and called for all votes to be counted, no matter how long it took.

President Donald Trump responded by saying he had won, that "they" were trying to steal the election, and that he would go to the US Supreme Court to fight for victory if necessary.

Investors initially wagered that a possible Democratic sweep by Biden could ease political risk and provide a huge boost to fiscal stimulus.

But the mood quickly changed as Trump snatched Florida and ran much closer in other battleground states than polls predicted.

US equity futures went on a wild ride, rising then falling, climbing again as the voting seemed to favor Trump only to sag once more as the president vowed to make a Supreme Court challenge.

The prospect of a drawn out and bitter fight ahead meant Europe's main bourses in London, Paris, and Frankfurt fell a modest 0.1%-0.8% as they opened as investors factored in the uncertainty ahead.

"It means possibly quite a lot of volatility," said AXA Group's Chief Economist Gilles Moec in London.

"As it is not clear, markets are going to overreact to every tiny piece of news," such as any further talk from Trump or Biden about legal fights.

Dealers said investors could be thinking a status quo result would lessen political uncertainty and remove the risk a Biden administration would roll back corporate tax cuts.

The technology sector saw reason for gains, with NASDAQ futures rising 2.4%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 dropped 1% after Trump signaled his intention to go to the Supreme Court but clawed higher again in early European dealing.

Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, said the move in techs appeared to be a play on the Senate potentially staying Republican.

Brenner said that under a Biden win tech stocks were seen faring worse, partly due to Democrats going after the sector in hearings and because a potential rise in capital gains tax would hit tech stocks harder.

Stéphane Monier, CIO at Lombard Odier said a divided Congress would have "far-reaching implications for markets, mostly because it means that any kind of pandemic recovery package is still tough to approve."

Japan's Nikkei was ahead by 1.7%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%.

Chinese blue chips rose 0.7%, with markets uncertain how Sino-US relations would develop from here.

Some investors hedged against the risk of a contested election or at least a drawn-out process as mail-in ballots were counted.

"It's a wait-and-see," said Matt Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual in Sydney.

"I think the odds of a clean (Democrat) sweep are diminishing, almost by the minute. That reduces the possibility, or the likelihood at least of a large stimulus programme being agreed to in the first days of a Biden administration."

That saw 10-year Treasury yields fall all the way back to 0.81%, having been at a five-month top of 0.93%.

The US dollar had a roller-coaster session, reversing early losses to be last up 1% on a basket of currencies at 93.902. The euro fell back hard to $1.1650 and away from a top of $1.1768.

The chance of a Trump victory saw the dollar jump 2% against the Mexican peso on the assumption US trade policies would continue to favor tariffs. Norway's crown, Australia's risk-sensitive dollar, and Britain's pound all tumbled too.

Going the other way, the dollar eased nearly 1% at one point to the Russian rouble, which had been one of the hardest fallers in the run up to the election, though the move seemed to lose traction in European trading.

STILL TO COME

Investors are awaiting the outcome of US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings this week, which are expected to at least give a nod to further stimulus.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates to near zero and boosted its bond-buying program, adding to the tidal wave of cheap money flooding the global financial system.

Gold had been buoyed by the extensive liquidity but ran into profit-taking on Wednesday, losing 0.6% to $1,896 an ounce.

Oil prices held gains made after industry data showed crude inventories in the United States dropped sharply.

Dealers said a returned Republican administration would likely be more positive for the oil industry than the Democrats that favor renewable technology.

US crude futures were up 25 cents at $37.86 a barrel, with Brent crude futures gaining 22 cents to $39.94.



Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Project

A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
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Bahraini Transport Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Each Country to Finance Its Share of Gulf Railway Project

A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)
A conceptual rendering of the Gulf railway interconnection project. (X)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states took a new step toward completing the railway interconnection project by signing the project's general agreement in Bahrain on Sunday. This comes as part of efforts to establish an integrated transport network linking the six nations and boosting the movement of passengers, goods, and commercial trade among them.

Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa told Asharq Al-Awsat that each country will fund and execute the portion of the project located within its territory.

Meanwhile, the costs, fees, and expenses associated with the shared interconnection components among member states will be determined collectively, he added.

He explained that the agreement establishes a joint framework for the project's execution and operation, while defining the obligations of member states and their coordination mechanisms.

He noted that the network, which extends some 2,117 kilometers, aims to transport 6 million passengers and 200 million tons of freight by 2030, with the figures projected to rise to more than 8 million passengers and 271 million tons of freight by 2045.

The project spans from Kuwait, passing through Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, all the way to Oman, with the goal of achieving full network operations by December 2030.

According to the minister, interconnection lines between adjacent countries can become operational as soon as their components are completed, without the need to wait for the entire Gulf network to be finalized.

National financing and potential partnerships

On private sector participation, Al Khalifa said that it remains one of the viable options for financing, executing, or operating certain components of the project, depending on the outcomes of economic and financial studies. He stressed that there is no unified public-private partnership model approved across the entire network.

There are currently no pre-existing agreements with specific international partners to finance or execute the project, he said. However, the expertise of global companies in the fields of design, engineering, technology, and operating systems could be utilized based on the project's needs and its various phases.

Bahraini Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Dr. Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.

Concerning the project's announced completion rate, the minister explained that the 50 percent figure represents the average progress achieved across member states, and does not mean that half of the construction work for the entire Gulf network has been completed.

The project's cost estimates are currently undergoing review and updates in light of economic shifts, rising prices for materials and services, construction costs, and inflation, he revealed without specifying an updated total cost at the present time.

Returns beyond passenger and freight transport

Al Khalifa said that the economic impact of the project is not limited to facilitating passenger movement and freight transport, but extends to improving supply chain efficiency, boosting trade among GCC countries, and linking industrial centers, economic zones, and logistical hubs, as well as supporting employment and investment opportunities.

He added that determining the project's exact contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) or estimating expected savings in time and costs remains premature, given that returns vary depending on transport routes, the nature of the cargo, and the points of origin and destination.

In light of the challenges facing maritime navigation in the region, the minister stressed that the Gulf railway network is not intended to serve as a substitute for maritime transport. Instead, it acts as a complementary route that boosts transport options and connectivity among GCC nations, increasing the resilience of supply chains against disruptions that could affect various modes of transportation.

He noted that integration between ports, roads, railways, and airports will strengthen the flexibility of the Gulf transport system, while connecting to broader international logistical corridors remains a future possibility contingent on completing studies, understandings, and coordination with the relevant countries and entities.

King Hamad Bridge to link Bahrain and Saudi Arabia

Regarding the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Al Khalifa explained that the King Hamad Bridge project includes road lanes and railway lines, enabling the international passenger station in Bahrain to connect with the Saudi railway network and forming one of the essential components for completing the Gulf interconnection.

He added that work is underway on the privatization procedures for the King Fahd Causeway Authority, alongside completing the necessary studies and procedures to transition to the execution of the new bridge project.

Achieving the connection between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is a fundamental requirement for operating the railway line between the two countries within the project's targeted timeframe in December 2030,e he said.


Egypt Seeks Faster Progress on Libya Gas, Refining and Power Projects

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaks during a press conference with Minister of Information Diaa Rashwan (not pictured) in Cairo, Egypt, March 25, 2026. (Reuters)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaks during a press conference with Minister of Information Diaa Rashwan (not pictured) in Cairo, Egypt, March 25, 2026. (Reuters)
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Egypt Seeks Faster Progress on Libya Gas, Refining and Power Projects

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaks during a press conference with Minister of Information Diaa Rashwan (not pictured) in Cairo, Egypt, March 25, 2026. (Reuters)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaks during a press conference with Minister of Information Diaa Rashwan (not pictured) in Cairo, Egypt, March 25, 2026. (Reuters)

Egypt aims to accelerate energy projects with Libya, including gas pipeline links, refining of Libyan crude in Egypt and an electricity interconnection, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said late on Saturday.

Abdelatty's comments were in ‌a ministry ‌statement after a meeting ‌with ⁠Libya’s acting oil ⁠and gas minister Khalifa Abdulsadek in Tripoli.

Abdelatty also ‌called for cooperation on petroleum products and the completion of projects to refine Libyan ‌oil in Egypt and re-export it, the statement said, ⁠adding ⁠that Abdulsadek had said that Libya would continue implementing existing projects and would visit Cairo soon to continue technical talks with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

The statement did not provide details on costs or the status of the projects.


GCC: Railway Agreement Sets Joint Framework for Project Implementation and Operation

GCC transport ministers pose for a group photo following the 27th committee meeting in Kuwait. (GCC Railway Authority)
GCC transport ministers pose for a group photo following the 27th committee meeting in Kuwait. (GCC Railway Authority)
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GCC: Railway Agreement Sets Joint Framework for Project Implementation and Operation

GCC transport ministers pose for a group photo following the 27th committee meeting in Kuwait. (GCC Railway Authority)
GCC transport ministers pose for a group photo following the 27th committee meeting in Kuwait. (GCC Railway Authority)

Jasem Albudaiwi, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), said on Sunday that the signing of the General Agreement on the GCC Railway Project marked an important step toward establishing an integrated regional transport network.

He said the network would facilitate the movement of citizens and residents, ease freight transport, boost intra-GCC trade efficiency and strengthen member states’ economic competitiveness and the region’s position in regional and international trade.

Albudaiwi's remarks came at the signing ceremony in the Bahraini capital, Manama, on Sunday, held under the patronage and in the presence of Bahrain’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa.

He said the project reflected the GCC’s shared ambition to connect member states and improve mobility and trade by linking their economic and industrial hubs, ports and logistics centers.

He added that the project would create opportunities for safe, reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly transport services that meet development needs, serve the aspirations of future generations and strengthen economic integration among GCC states.

Albudaiwi said the agreement sets a common framework for member states to implement and operate the project in coordination with their national railway networks, while establishing mechanisms and a timetable to accelerate its completion.

Albudaiwi praised GCC leaders and transport ministers for their support of strategic regional projects, thanking Bahrain’s crown prince and prime minister for hosting the signing ceremony and officials for advancing the railway project.