Baghdad Fears Rise of US, Iranian Tensions in Iraq

Iran's nuclear mastermind Mohsen Fakhrizadeh pictured in an undated photo, Reuters
Iran's nuclear mastermind Mohsen Fakhrizadeh pictured in an undated photo, Reuters
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Baghdad Fears Rise of US, Iranian Tensions in Iraq

Iran's nuclear mastermind Mohsen Fakhrizadeh pictured in an undated photo, Reuters
Iran's nuclear mastermind Mohsen Fakhrizadeh pictured in an undated photo, Reuters

Even though Baghdad refrained from taking an official stance on the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Shiite political parties and blocs in Iraq like the Islamic Dawa Party issued loud condemnations against the killing.

A single Sunni organization, the Iraq Scholars Association, headed by cleric Khaled Al-Mulla, issued an obituary and condemnation statement.

The assassination preoccupied the Iraqi public opinion on various media platforms.

Controversy was sparked between those who believe that an Iranian retaliation would not involve Iraq, given its current political instability, and those who say that Tehran will not avenge Fakhrizadeh’s death for the time being.

Many are convinced that Tehran will remain silent in order to avert chances of outgoing US President Donald Trump using their retaliation to warrant a striking hit on Iran.

Others say that Iran may decide to respond to Fakhrizadeh’s killing in other parts of the region, like in the Arab Gulf or against Israel.

While it may prove to be too risky for Iran to respond now that the US administration is undergoing a delicate power transition, Iranian proxies in Iraq may stage retaliatory missile attacks against Baghdad’s Green Zone, where the US embassy is found, or against American assets in the country.

National Iraqi Alliance leader Ayad Allawi warned against the rise of extremism in light of the absence of political stability in Iraq.

“I am afraid of an expected escalation of extremist groups, on top of which is ISIS, which may take advantage of political instability,” Allawi tweeted on Saturday.

“These groups may exploit the aggravated economic and health crisis, the absence of a national contract that binds components of the people and political parties, and failure to eradicate terrorism from its roots,” he added.

Allawi emphasized the need for the Iraqi government to focus efforts on resolving the above mentioned challenges.

Hussein Allawi, national security professor at Al-Nahrain University, explained that if Iraq doesn’t overcome its vulnerabilities and political instability it would be rendered an easy target for Iranian agenda.

“Political parties have left the Iraqi government to face internal and external challenges on its own,” Allawi told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Iran can place Iraq in the basket of targeted goals, especially since there are diplomatic and training advisory missions working with the joint Iraqi forces,” Allawi cautioned.



The Seven States That Will Decide the US Presidency

Voters are reflected in a window near an American flag as they mark their ballots during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, at City Hall in Providence, R.I. (AP)
Voters are reflected in a window near an American flag as they mark their ballots during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, at City Hall in Providence, R.I. (AP)
TT

The Seven States That Will Decide the US Presidency

Voters are reflected in a window near an American flag as they mark their ballots during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, at City Hall in Providence, R.I. (AP)
Voters are reflected in a window near an American flag as they mark their ballots during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, at City Hall in Providence, R.I. (AP)

US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are hurtling toward their November 5 election showdown, one of the closest contests in modern American history.

And in the handful of critical states framing the 2024 race, there is little daylight between the rivals with barely a week before Election Day.

Under the US Constitution, America's founding fathers established that each of the 50 states would hold its own vote for president.

Under the complex Electoral College system, each state has a certain number of "electors," based on population. Most states have a winner-take-all system that awards all electors to whoever wins the popular vote.

With candidates needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, elections tend to be decided in the hotly contested "swing states" with a history of alternating between Republican and Democratic candidates.

This year, there are seven such battlegrounds, and every one is a toss-up within the margin of error. Here is a look:

- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes) -

Pennsylvania was once reliably Democratic, but these days, they don't come much tighter than the Keystone State.

Republican Trump won the most populous battleground, with 13 million residents, by 0.7 percentage points in 2016. Joe Biden claimed it by 1.2 percentage points in 2020.

Known for its "Rust Belt" cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania has been blighted for decades by the steady decline of its industrial manufacturing base.

Trump and Harris have campaigned repeatedly in the eastern state, where the pair held their one and only presidential debate. Trump, who survived an assassination attempt at a July rally in Pennsylvania, is courting the rural white population and warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns.

Harris is touting recent infrastructure wins, and in Pittsburgh she outlined plans to invest $100 billion in manufacturing, a key issue for state residents.

- Georgia (16) -

This southeastern state was an election flashpoint at the end of Trump's first term, and the controversy simmers.

Prosecutors in Georgia indicted Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to "find" enough votes to overturn Biden's narrow 2020 victory.

But in a boost for Trump, the case is paused until after the election.

Biden was the first Democrat to win the Peach State since 1992. Demographic changes are likely to benefit Harris, who has courted minority voters across Georgia.

- North Carolina (16) -

The southeastern state has voted Democratic only once since 1980, but Harris believes it's back in play.

The population, now over 10 million, is expanding and growing more diverse, benefiting Democrats.

Complicating matters for Trump, a scandal involving the state's Republican gubernatorial candidate has infuriated party officials who worry it could sink Trump in a close race.

As in neighboring Georgia, one wild card is how the devastation from storm Helene, which recently laid waste to towns in western North Carolina, might impact the vote.

- Michigan (15) -

Trump flipped Michigan, a former Democratic stronghold, on his way to defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Biden returned it to the blue column in 2020, buoyed by unionized workers and a large Black community.

But this time, Harris risks losing the support of a 200,000-strong Arab-American community that has denounced Biden's -- and by extension her -- handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

- Arizona (11) -

The Grand Canyon state was among 2020's tightest races, with Biden triumphing by just 10,457 votes.

Trump hopes frustrations over the Biden-Harris administration's immigration policy will swing Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico, back in his favor.

Harris visited Arizona's border in September vowing to crack down on migration and work on reviving last year's bipartisan border bill, which she said Trump "tanked" for political purposes.

- Wisconsin (10) -

Clinton lost Wisconsin after giving the state a wide berth during the 2016 campaign.

As with Midwestern neighbor Michigan, it was a different story when Trump's opponent was Biden, who turned a 23,000-vote deficit into a winning margin of 21,000 for Democrats.

Trump considers it winnable, and his party held its summer national convention there.

While Trump led early against Biden, Harris has made the state race a nailbiter.

- Nevada (6) -

The Silver State, with a population of 3.1 million, hasn't voted Republican since 2004. Conservatives, buoyed by Trump's headway with Hispanic voters, are convinced they can flip the script.

Trump held a significant lead here against Biden.

But within weeks of becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris -- promoting her economic plans to help small businesses and combat inflation -- has erased that advantage in the western state, whose largest city Las Vegas is dominated by the hospitality industry.