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Egypt’s Fuel and Commodities Subsidy Bills Fall 77%

Egypt was aiming that the petroleum subsidy amounts to EGP52.9 billion in FY 2019-20. AFP
Egypt was aiming that the petroleum subsidy amounts to EGP52.9 billion in FY 2019-20. AFP
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Egypt’s Fuel and Commodities Subsidy Bills Fall 77%

Egypt was aiming that the petroleum subsidy amounts to EGP52.9 billion in FY 2019-20. AFP
Egypt was aiming that the petroleum subsidy amounts to EGP52.9 billion in FY 2019-20. AFP

Egypt’s subsidy bill for petroleum products declined 77 percent to EGP18.6 billion ($1.19 billion) in the financial year (FY) 2019-20 that ended in June 30, the finance ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

It was aiming that the petroleum subsidy hits EGP52.9 billion in FY 2019-20 and now targets amounting it to EGP28.193 billion in the current FY.

The country’s subsidy bill for staple commodities fell 7.6 percent in the same year to EGP80.4 billion ($5.16 billion), the statement said.

Egypt supports more than 60 million citizens through ration cards, and the government allocates 50 pounds per month to each citizen registered in the ration cards system to buy the commodities he or she needs.

Finance Minister Mohamed Maait expects the economy to grow between 2.8 and four percent in the current fiscal year 2021-22 that began in July.

Egypt had hoped for growth between six and 6.5 percent before the coronavirus pandemic, according to Maait’s televised statements on Friday.

According to the finance ministry’s circular on the draft budget for the 2021-22 FY, Egypt aims to reduce the total budget deficit to 6.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The country expects to reduce the overall deficit of the 2020-21 FY to 7.5 percent from 7.9 percent in the previous one, and a primary surplus at 0.5 percent.

In the circular dated October 2020, the ministry added that the government is targeting an unemployment rate of six percent in the FY 2021-22 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2020, compared to 7.8 percent in the same period in 2019.

The circular pointed out that the government targets an average interest rate on government bills at 13 percent in the FY 2021-22 budgets from the 13.5 percent expected in 2020-21.
The government declared it expects government debt to rise to 88 percent of GDP in the 2021-22 FY from the projected 83 percent in the current fiscal year.

The finance ministry targets an inflation rate of nine percent in FY 2020-21, with plus or minus three percent, compared to the 5.7 percent expected in the current fiscal year, the circular added.

Urban consumer price inflation rose to 4.5 percent year on year (YoY) in October, from 3.7 percent in September.

The ministry did not publish the real economic growth rate expected in 2021-22 and said “preparations are underway by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.”

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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.