Iraq Cuts Crude Oil Supplies for Most Indian Refiners in 2021

FILE PHOTO: Flames are seen at a station in al-Zubair oilfield, near Basra, Iraq April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Flames are seen at a station in al-Zubair oilfield, near Basra, Iraq April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudan/File Photo
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Iraq Cuts Crude Oil Supplies for Most Indian Refiners in 2021

FILE PHOTO: Flames are seen at a station in al-Zubair oilfield, near Basra, Iraq April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Flames are seen at a station in al-Zubair oilfield, near Basra, Iraq April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudan/File Photo

Iraq has reduced annual supplies of Basra crude oil to several Indian refiners by up to 20% for 2021, industry sources said.

Iraq was the top oil supplier to India in 2020 and a reduction in long-term Basra crude supplies could erode Baghdad's market share in the world's third largest oil importer and consumer.

Iraq's Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) has reduced the 2021 Basra term volumes to several Indian refiners by between 10% and 20%, the sources said, Reuters reported.

"We never expected Iraq to cut volumes. We may have to look for alternatives like tapping the spot markets," said a source at one of the Indian refiners.

"This is happening at a time when we are preparing to increase run rates as fuel demand is recovering."

SOMO told Indian refiners that it had reduced annual contracts for all Asian buyers to compensate for higher volumes produced in the previous year, one of the sources said.

Iraq has been striving to meet its output target under an agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, to limit production and support global oil prices.

Baghdad is heavily reliant on oil revenues to support the country's economy.

Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said earlier in January that it will stay committed to OPEC decisions and compensate for its overproduction.

India on Tuesday complained that recent output cuts by some OPEC countries had created uncertainty for customers and led to a surge in global oil prices.

The changes in term supply volumes come as Iraq launched its new sour crude grade Basra Medium in January by splitting existing Basra Light crude production into two grades to improve the quality of its oil. SOMO also exports a third grade Basra Heavy.

The sources said SOMO cut term supplies to Indian Oil Corp IOC.NS, the country's top refiner and its biggest Indian client, by 10% to about 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) for all three Basra crude grades, while the volume for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd MRPL.NS fell by 17% to 50,000 bpd.

SOMO is planning to cut the oil contract of Bharat Petroleum BPCL.NS by about a quarter from last year's 100,000 bpd, the sources said, adding that discussions with BPCL were still ongoing as the Indian company's annual contract begins from April.

Hindustan Petroleum HPCL.NS, which buys Basra Light oil, has asked SOMO to reduce its term supplies to about 50,000 bpd in 2021, down from about 80,000 bpd in 2020.

Iraq has agreed to HPCL's request for lower supplies, while the companies are in talks about additional supply of Basra Medium grade, they said.

The annual oil contract for Reliance Industries RELI.NS, operator of the world's largest refining complex, has also been changed. Reliance will get 33,000 bpd of Basra Medium grade instead of 66,000 bpd of Basra Light, the sources said.

The supply cuts to India followed a $2.5 billion oil prepayment deal between SOMO and Chinese state oil trader Zhenhua Oil Corp for 48 million barrels of Basra crude.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.