With Lebanon in Freefall, What Comes Next?

A woman tries to cross a blocked road with burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardships in Khaldeh, Lebanon March 8, 2021. Reuters
A woman tries to cross a blocked road with burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardships in Khaldeh, Lebanon March 8, 2021. Reuters
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With Lebanon in Freefall, What Comes Next?

A woman tries to cross a blocked road with burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardships in Khaldeh, Lebanon March 8, 2021. Reuters
A woman tries to cross a blocked road with burning tires during a protest against the fall in Lebanese pound currency and mounting economic hardships in Khaldeh, Lebanon March 8, 2021. Reuters

Lebanon's worst economic downturn in decades has pushed a battered population to the brink with no solution in sight as the country's barons wrangle over forming a new government.

In the absence of a fully functioning executive that can spearhead reforms and provide the most basic of services, is a rescue on the horizon?

- Why are protesters back? -

Conditions in Lebanon have deteriorated since the protesters first took to the streets in 2019 demanding the removal of a political leadership deemed inept and corrupt.

The coronavirus pandemic and a powerful August 4 explosion in Beirut port that disfigured the heart of the capital and prompted prime minister Hassan Diab to resign have aggravated the country's economic woes.

The Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 1,507 to the greenback since 1997, has lost almost 90 percent of its value on the black market.

It was changing hands for up to 15,000 to the dollar on Tuesday, an all-time low.

The depreciation has sparked soaring inflation and chipped away at the purchasing power of a population denied full access to their savings by stringent banking controls.

This prompted a new wave of protests across Lebanon in March after the novel coronavirus temporarily snuffed out demonstrations last year.

Activists took aim at the government, which has tried to soften the punch by subsidizing basic goods and prosecuting money exchangers accused of manipulating the market.

But this has done little to stem the currency crisis while central bank reserves diminish by the day.

In March last year, the government defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time.

- What's delaying a new government? -

Spearheaded by France, the international community is piling pressure on authorities to form a new government quickly.

But more than seven months after Diab resigned, politicians have yet to agree on a new line-up.

Prime minister-designate Saad Hariri and President Michel Aoun have accused each other of obstruction.

According to Lebanese media reports, Aoun and the political party he founded are pushing for a big share of cabinet seats -- a demand Hariri has rejected.

Aoun has denied the accusations.

An Arab diplomatic source in Beirut said "the behavior of political parties and their calculations, which don't seem to have changed", suggest "there is obstruction from all sides that could last months".

"We presented many solutions, but they were turned down," the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Nasser Yassin of the American University of Beirut accused authorities of being tone deaf.

"As we move towards the abyss, there is a great political crisis, with each side trying to see how to secure gains before total collapse," he told AFP.

Public institutions, meanwhile, are not capable of carrying out "the most basic of tasks".

- A 'failed state'? -

Over the past week, members of Lebanon's outgoing government have sounded the alarm.

Interior minister Mohammad Fahmi said security has "crumbled" as crime rates soar.

Energy minister Raymond Ghajar warned of "total darkness" by the end of the month if funds are not made available to import fuel.

Education minister Tarek Majzoub announced a week-long suspension of teaching in public schools in protest over the lack of state support for pupils and teachers hit by the economic crisis.

The army chief has complained of budget cuts and several professional associations have threatened strikes.

"We have not yet reached the level of a failed state," Yasin said. "But the state's ability to survive is diminishing by the day."

- Any solutions in sight? -

There are no quick fixes but economists argue a turnaround is still possible.

"The problem is that we have yet to start with a rescue plan," said Yasin.

International donors have conditioned aid on the implementation of a reform program that could save the economy.

Diab's government last year announced a rescue roadmap that includes spending cuts, electricity sector reform, restructuring the banking sector and lifting the dollar peg.

But it has yet to be implemented.

"A future government that doesn't meet the standards of the international community... will not likely enact the reforms needed to receive financial support," the Arab diplomatic source warned.

Lebanon began talks with the International Monetary Fund last year but they quickly hit a wall over lack of political consensus over the reforms needed.

Henri Chaoul, who was part of the government's IMF negotiating team befoe he resigned in protest, said officials were to blame for the currency crisis.

"All of this was preventable," he said on Twitter last week when the pound hit 12,000 to the greenback.

"They are responsible for this," he added, referring to politicians and central bankers as well as the commercial banks.



West Bank on Verge of ‘Explosion’, Says Senior Palestinian Official

Israeli soldiers take positions during an army raid in the Rafidia area of Nablus, West Bank, 19 October 2026. (EPA)
Israeli soldiers take positions during an army raid in the Rafidia area of Nablus, West Bank, 19 October 2026. (EPA)
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West Bank on Verge of ‘Explosion’, Says Senior Palestinian Official

Israeli soldiers take positions during an army raid in the Rafidia area of Nablus, West Bank, 19 October 2026. (EPA)
Israeli soldiers take positions during an army raid in the Rafidia area of Nablus, West Bank, 19 October 2026. (EPA)

Israeli settler attacks risk setting off an "explosion" in the occupied West Bank, a senior Palestinian leader told AFP, while urging that the response remain peaceful.

Jibril Rajoub, the secretary general of the central committee of the Palestinian Authority's ruling Fatah faction, said he called for "peaceful confrontation" as he took part in meetings in Cairo with other Palestinian movements including Gaza-based rival Hamas, which led the October 7, 2023 attacks against Israel.

"The terrorism carried out by the army and settlers, under the supervision of the Israeli government... is a prelude to a coming reaction and explosion," Rajoub told AFP in Cairo.

But he said that a "peaceful, nonviolent struggle is a necessity and a strategic choice for all Palestinians".

"Bloodshed is no longer an acceptable option," he said, calling for "peaceful confrontation with the occupation, despite the crimes it commits".

Settlers have carried out daily physical attacks, thefts and other attacks against Palestinians, with the violence intensifying in the run-up to October 27 elections, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, governing with the fiercely pro-settlement far-right, is seeking a new mandate.

Violence has picked up as extremist settlers seek to stop the Palestinian olive harvest, an annual season with cultural resonance for the community.

More than 500,000 Israelis live in West Bank settlements, which are considered illegal under international law, surrounded by around three million Palestinians.

The talks in Cairo came after Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who has ruled since 2005, delayed elections slated to start next month until September 2027.

Rajoub said the talks called for "unified political representation" with the principle of a "single authority" and "only one legitimate armed force".

Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, dividing the two Palestinian territories. Israel has vowed to obliterate Hamas after the October 7, 2023 attack, the deadliest day in Israel's history. The Hamas attack resulted in 1,221 deaths.

At least 1,125 Palestinians have died in the West Bank since October 2023, mostly by the Israeli military, according to an AFP tally based on Palestinian health ministry figures.

Settler attacks have killed 23 Palestinians in that timeframe, according to the United Nations.

Palestinian attacks have killed at least 49 Israelis in the same period, according to Israeli figures.

In Gaza, the Israeli offensive has killed 74,459 Palestinians since October 2023, according to figures under the health ministry run under Hamas. The United Nations generally considers the figures reliable.


Israel to Resume Commercial Shipments to Gaza After Hamas Fee Dispute

Tents are pictured by the rubble of collapsed buildings in the Jabalia camp for Palestinian refugees in the northern Gaza Strip on October 19, 2026. (AFP)
Tents are pictured by the rubble of collapsed buildings in the Jabalia camp for Palestinian refugees in the northern Gaza Strip on October 19, 2026. (AFP)
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Israel to Resume Commercial Shipments to Gaza After Hamas Fee Dispute

Tents are pictured by the rubble of collapsed buildings in the Jabalia camp for Palestinian refugees in the northern Gaza Strip on October 19, 2026. (AFP)
Tents are pictured by the rubble of collapsed buildings in the Jabalia camp for Palestinian refugees in the northern Gaza Strip on October 19, 2026. (AFP)

Israel said on ‌Monday it would resume allowing commercial goods shipments into Gaza after a days-long halt over a tax dispute involving Hamas and merchants, restoring a key route for food and other essentials to the aid-dependent enclave.

COGAT, the Israeli military agency overseeing humanitarian affairs in Gaza, said it made the decision after merchants reported that Hamas authorities had withdrawn demands for payments of 10,000 shekels ($3,225) per truck.

"The resumption of coordination is being carried ‌out in accordance ‌with Israel's commitment to the ‌humanitarian provisions ⁠of the ceasefire agreement," ⁠it said.

COGAT said the merchants' accounts had not been independently verified and shipments would resume gradually, with priority given to essential goods ahead of winter.

Oversight would be tightened to ensure payments are made and received only through documented bank transfers, with any merchant ⁠found to have paid Hamas facing ‌exclusion from the system.

Hamas said ‌the 10,000-shekel fee was a voluntary contribution by better-off Gazans ‌to a national fund supporting people in need in ‌the war-ravaged territory.

Most Gazans remain dependent on aid after three years of war, repeated displacement and severe restrictions on aid deliveries. While last year's US-brokered ceasefire halted the heaviest ‌fighting, it has not ended Israeli attacks.

Local health officials said on Monday ⁠that at ⁠least five Palestinians, including a 14-year-old boy, were killed in separate Israeli strikes in Gaza City and Khan Younis. The Israeli military did not immediately comment.

Israel says Hamas has continued to rearm and carry out attacks in violation of the ceasefire, while Hamas accuses Israel of undermining the agreement.

Gaza health officials say about 1,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the October 2025 ceasefire, while Israel says four of its soldiers have been killed by fighters in Gaza over the same period.


Dawn of Yemen Operation Piles Pressure on Houthis in Taiz

A member of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, including National Army and Taiz Axis forces, mans a turret mounted on the back of a pickup truck at a checkpoint along the Kadha frontline west of Taiz in western Yemen on September 13, 2026. (AFP)
A member of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, including National Army and Taiz Axis forces, mans a turret mounted on the back of a pickup truck at a checkpoint along the Kadha frontline west of Taiz in western Yemen on September 13, 2026. (AFP)
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Dawn of Yemen Operation Piles Pressure on Houthis in Taiz

A member of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, including National Army and Taiz Axis forces, mans a turret mounted on the back of a pickup truck at a checkpoint along the Kadha frontline west of Taiz in western Yemen on September 13, 2026. (AFP)
A member of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, including National Army and Taiz Axis forces, mans a turret mounted on the back of a pickup truck at a checkpoint along the Kadha frontline west of Taiz in western Yemen on September 13, 2026. (AFP)

The "Dawn of Yemen" operation entered its 15th day amid sustained military pressure against Iran-backed Houthi militias on the Taiz and Marib fronts.

Government forces continued offensive operations to retake Houthi-held positions, supported by airstrikes on militia gatherings and reinforcements, with Yemeni military estimates placing Houthi casualties at over 15,000 dead and wounded in recent weeks.

The Yemeni Armed Forces said they carried out 1,326 operations over the past 24 hours, striking Houthi gatherings, vehicles, fortifications, and firing positions.

According to an initial toll, the operations resulted in the neutralization of around 370 militants and the destruction and disabling of dozens of military vehicles and assets.

In Taiz, clashes continued across multiple axes, as government forces advanced backed by the popular resistance, and the recapture of positions, heavy weapons, and military equipment.

Meanwhile, the Houthis are seeking to reorganize their ranks and reinforce combat positions following the collapse of attacks described as some of the fiercest over the past two days.

Government forces made advances in the Al-Sanamat and Al-Sarari areas of the Saber district, south of Taiz, following an offensive that began at dawn on Sunday, according to military sources. They reported significant casualties among the Houthis.

Houthi supporters ride in pickup trucks carrying portraits and the coffin of a fighter killed in recent fighting during a funeral procession in Sanaa, Yemen, 17 October 2026. (EPA)

Warplanes launched three airstrikes targeting group gatherings northwest of the city.

Government forces also maintained pressure on the remaining Houthi pockets in the Bab al-Mandeb area, while working to secure the highlands separating the Taiz and Lahj governorates.

The effort aims to consolidate the positions recaptured by the forces and prevent the militants from using them to launch counterattacks.

In Aden, an expanded security meeting chaired by Yemeni Minister of Interior Major General Ibrahim Haydan discussed the latest security developments, general mobilization, and the level of readiness within security agencies across governorates.

The meeting also addressed ongoing efforts to combat crime, pursue wanted individuals, and apprehend subversive cells.