Lebanon's Economic Collapse in Numbers

A woman washes dishes in her kitchen as she uses a portable electric light due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon July 6, 2020. Picture taken July 6, 2020. Reuters
A woman washes dishes in her kitchen as she uses a portable electric light due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon July 6, 2020. Picture taken July 6, 2020. Reuters
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Lebanon's Economic Collapse in Numbers

A woman washes dishes in her kitchen as she uses a portable electric light due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon July 6, 2020. Picture taken July 6, 2020. Reuters
A woman washes dishes in her kitchen as she uses a portable electric light due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon July 6, 2020. Picture taken July 6, 2020. Reuters

Lebanon is battling its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. The national currency is in freefall, while poverty and unemployment are on the rise.

Here are some numbers:

Plummeting pound
The Lebanese pound has lost around 90 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market in 18 months of crisis.
While the currency remains officially pegged to the greenback at 1,507 Lebanese pounds, the exchange rate has shot up to around 15,000 on the black market.

Poverty
Some 55 percent of Lebanese live below the poverty line of 3.84 dollars a day, the United Nations says.

Up to 23 percent of Lebanese live in extreme poverty, compared with just eight percent in 2019.

Inflation
Consumer prices rose by almost 146 percent during 2020, official statistics show.

Food prices overall rose by more than 400 percent last year, the World Food Program says.

The price of a basket of key survival items such as rice, pasta and cooking oil has almost tripled since October 2019, the WFP says.

The price of subsidized bread has risen by 91.5 percent since May 2020, as the cash-strapped government has gradually increased the price of a large packet of flatbread while also diminishing its weight.

The price of meat has increased by 110 percent over the past year, while the cost of chicken has risen by 65 percent, the World Bank says.

Median salary
Before the economic crisis broke in 2019, the median salary in Lebanon was more than 950,000 Lebanese pounds, official statistics show, according to Agence France Presse.

While that salary was worth around $630 dollars before the crisis, its value on the black market on Tuesday was just $63.

Unemployment
In late 2020, unemployment stood at 39.5 percent.

From 2019 to 2020, full-time employment dropped by 40 percent in the construction sector, while it fell by 31 percent in the hotel and restaurant sector, the United Nations says.
Aid

A World Bank loan of $246 million is to provide aid to around 786,000 hardest hit Lebanese.

Recession
Lebanon's gross national product fell by 25 percent last year, the International Monetary Fund says.

Debt
Public debt reached $95.6 billion in late 2020, the country's third largest lender, Byblos Bank, says.

That is equivalent to 171 percent of GDP, the International Monetary Fund says.

Foreign currency reserves
On March 15, the central bank had $17.5 billion in reserves, its website said, even if analysts have alleged the figure is likely lower.

At the end of February 2020, it had stood at $30.3 billion, Byblos Bank analysts said, explaining the drop was mainly due to spending on subsidies including wheat and fuel.
Trade deficit

Lebanon's balance of payments deficit reached $10.2 billion by the end of November 2020, almost double that registered a year before, central bank statistics showed, according to a report by top lender Bank Audi.

Electricity
The government has spent $40 billion on the power sector since 1992, accounting for 40 percent of public debt, a report by the American University of Beirut has said.

Yet the state utility covers only 63 percent of electricity demand, which results in rolling blackouts, a December study by the AUB said.

Now just two weeks remain before a nationwide blackout unless emergency funding is secured to buy fuel oil to operate power plants, the caretaker energy minister has warned.

Coronavirus
Even as it battles with economic crisis, Lebanon has recorded at least 418,448 Covid-19 cases since early last year, 5,380 of them fatal.

Port explosion
A massive explosion at Beirut port last year killed more than 200 people and ravaged swathes of the capital.

It caused between $6.7 billion and $8.1 billion in damage and economic losses, the World Bank said.

Refugees
Lebanon's more than six million inhabitants include around 1.5 million Syrians who have fled war in their homeland, of whom almost one million have been registered as refugees with the United Nations.

Nine out of 10 Syrian refugee families in Lebanon live in extreme poverty, the UN says.

Nearly 180,000 Palestinians also live in Lebanon, according to an official census.

In a May 2020 survey, 80 percent of respondents said they had lost their job or seen their salary reduced, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.