UAE Central Bank Expects GDP to Grow 2.5% in 2021, 3.5% in 2022

UAE Central Bank (WAM)
UAE Central Bank (WAM)
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UAE Central Bank Expects GDP to Grow 2.5% in 2021, 3.5% in 2022

UAE Central Bank (WAM)
UAE Central Bank (WAM)

UAE's GDP growth is forecast to pick up to 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively in 2021 and 2022, according to a recent report by the Central Bank of UAE (CBUAE).

The country’s non-oil GDP will grow by 3.6 percent during this year and will reach 3.9 percent in the upcoming year.

The Central Bank had confirmed that the targeted comprehensive economic support plan has achieved remarkable positive results within a year since its launch, paving the way for the strong recovery from the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The bank also launched two new payment system regulations aiming to promote robust financial infrastructure, which is essential for financial stability and consumer protection.

The two systems, the Large-Value Payment Systems (LVPS) Regulation and the Retail Payment Systems (RPS) Regulation, also facilitate the UAE’s international competitiveness.

Governor Abdulhamid al-Ahmadi remarked that payment systems are the “plumbing of the financial system” a critical part of any country’s financial infrastructure.

Ahmadi asserted that the issuance of the two regulations is an important milestone to reach the objective of providing robust, efficient, and accessible financial infrastructure in the UAE, serving the financial institutions, corporations, and people, and supporting the country’s competitive economy.

“The large value and retail payments systems regulations will help facilitate smooth, secure, and efficient conduct of transactions. The retail payments regulation will also provide a level playing field to advance innovation and competition, and financial inclusion.”

The LVPS regulation sets standards for financial infrastructure systems that support wholesale payment activities in the UAE.

As for the RPS regulation, it focuses on systems for retail payments, which provide funds transfer, clearing, and settlement services related to retail activities. The regulation covers all retail payment systems irrespective of currency or means of exchange in which the transactions are conducted.

The Bank explained that system operators and settlement institutions of existing large-value payment systems and retail payment systems operating in the UAE must comply with the requirements of these two regulations by the end of February 2022.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.