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Arab World

Russia Supports an African Solution for GERD Crisis

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Russian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Russian Foreign Ministry)
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Russia Supports an African Solution for GERD Crisis

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Russian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Russian Foreign Ministry)

Russia said it was ready to help to set the right conditions for a settlement between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia on the issue of the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam (GERD), stressing that it was not mediating between the concerned parties.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said his country supports the efforts of the African Union (AU) to settle the crisis, and believes that the solution should come from Africa.

Lavrov expressed Moscow's readiness to coordinate to reach an agreement that fulfills the interests of the three countries and push the various parties to refrain from unilateral acts, according to Shoukry.

For his part, Shoukry said Egypt believes that Russia has the ability through its bilateral relations with the various parties to the GERD dispute to impress on all sides the need to reach a resolution.

The FM asserted that Egypt would continue to closely coordinate with Russia, which has a central role as a permanent member of the Security Council, in addition to being a country that has its capabilities and influence in the international arena.

Ethiopia is building the dam on the main tributary of the Nile, to generate electricity. But Egypt and Sudan are concerned about its impact on their water supplies.

Shoukry asserted that Egypt has been trying to reach an agreement for a decade now, and showed great flexibility in this regard, putting into consideration the Sudanese and Ethiopian interests in a bid to equally serve the interests of all sides without undermining the water quotas of downstream nations.

Water rights of downstream nations are an “existential issue,” noted the top official, indicating that the matter cannot be handled through negotiations while one of the parties is taking “unilateral measures” which undermine negotiations.

Shoukry reiterated that the unilateral acts taken by the Ethiopian side and its intransigence have thwarted the negotiations on the GERD for a decade, including the AU-sponsored talks.

He called on Russia to play a greater role in the issue, saying: "We count on the relations that bind Russia to the three countries and their ability, with their influence and prestigious international status.”

Last year, the AU failed to reach a consensual solution.

Egypt and Sudan rejected an Ethiopian proposal to share data on the operations of its dam on the Blue Nile after negotiations between the three countries in Kinshasa this week ended without progress.

“Ethiopia invites Sudan and Egypt to nominate dam operators for data exchange before the filling of GERD in upcoming rainy seasons,” the Ethiopian foreign ministry said.

Cairo and Khartoum maintained that they are seeking a legally binding agreement over the operations of the dam and will not accept reaching understandings that provide political and technical cover to the Ethiopian endeavors to impose a fait accompli on the two downstream countries.

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Arab World

Lebanon's Prisoners Continue Hunger Strike Over Suspension of Amnesty Law

A sign held by a protester at Roumieh Prison calls for the implementation of the General Amnesty Law (Al-Markazia)
A sign held by a protester at Roumieh Prison calls for the implementation of the General Amnesty Law (Al-Markazia)
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Lebanon's Prisoners Continue Hunger Strike Over Suspension of Amnesty Law

A sign held by a protester at Roumieh Prison calls for the implementation of the General Amnesty Law (Al-Markazia)
A sign held by a protester at Roumieh Prison calls for the implementation of the General Amnesty Law (Al-Markazia)

Inmates at Lebanon’s Roumieh Central Prison are on a hunger strike for a 10th day over an appeal to a general amnesty law, as warnings mounted that deteriorating conditions could trigger a broader humanitarian and social crisis.

Prisoners in Block B of Roumieh, Lebanon’s largest prison, have refused food, water and medication while awaiting a Constitutional Council ruling on the challenge to the law, which hundreds of inmates hope will secure their release.

The strike has coincided with protests outside prisons, including a demonstration Sunday that drew hundreds to Al-Nour Square in the northern city of Tripoli at the call of a committee representing prisoners’ families.

“The prisoners remain committed to the strike, but the situation is still under control and has not yet reached a highly dangerous stage,” a security source told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The main concern was for inmates with chronic illnesses, particularly those refusing medication, the source added. The prison doctor was examining strikers daily, prioritizing those with health conditions, while arrangements were in place to transfer any inmate whose condition deteriorated to hospital.

The source nevertheless warned that tensions could worsen if the Constitutional Council upheld the appeal and struck down the amnesty law, potentially prompting prisoners to escalate their protest.

Omar al-Atrash, spokesman for Lebanon’s prisoners, said the health of inmates had started to deteriorate “one after another,” adding that two prisoners were hospitalized Sunday.

Al-Atrash warned that the action could expand in the coming days into a general strike across Lebanon’s prisons.

He held Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil and his political camp “morally and humanely responsible” because of its challenge to the amnesty law that was passed by parliament on Aug. 12.

Al-Atrash urged state institutions to implement the law, warning that further delays could lead to “a humanitarian catastrophe and an explosion inside the prisons” that could rapidly develop into a national and social crisis.

One Roumieh inmate told Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikers’ health was rapidly deteriorating and that prisoners with chronic illnesses were at particular risk.

The inmates “will not back down until the amnesty law is upheld and published in the Official Gazette,” he said.

A judicial source said prosecutors were monitoring the strikers’ health in coordination with Roumieh prison authorities.

Courts had already begun preparing cases to implement the amnesty should the Constitutional Council allow the law to stand, the source said, in an effort to avoid delays in releasing eligible prisoners.

Arab World

Trump Praises Aoun’s Leadership During Critical Period

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun holds a meeting with former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt and his son, MP Taymour Jumblatt, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda on Monday (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun holds a meeting with former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt and his son, MP Taymour Jumblatt, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda on Monday (Lebanese Presidency)
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Trump Praises Aoun’s Leadership During Critical Period

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun holds a meeting with former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt and his son, MP Taymour Jumblatt, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda on Monday (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun holds a meeting with former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt and his son, MP Taymour Jumblatt, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda on Monday (Lebanese Presidency)

US President Donald Trump on Monday praised President Joseph Aoun’s leadership of Lebanon during this critical period, and acclaimed the shared commitment of both sides to peace, security, and prosperity around the world.

Lebanon is engaged in US-mediated direct negotiations with Israel, aimed at ending the war, securing an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, facilitating the return of detainees, and enabling displaced residents to return to their homes.

The talks also seek to ensure that weapons across Lebanon are placed exclusively under the authority of the country’s official security and military forces.

Trump’s praise came in a letter sent to Aoun, in which he expressed his “honor” to welcome the President to the White House on July 21 for a “truly historic visit,” according to the Lebanese presidency said.

“It was an honor to welcome you to the White House for a visit that was historic in every sense of the word—the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades—at a time when the Middle East is experiencing conflict. I have admired your decisive leadership on behalf of Lebanon and its people,” the letter said.

Trump also thanked Aoun for awarding him the National Order of the Cedar, Grand Cordon, saying: “This initiative is an exceptional honor and embodies the proud Lebanese spirit. I will cherish this gesture as a symbol of our shared commitment to peace, security, and prosperity around the world.”

Unlike Hezbollah, the Lebanese state’s approach of negotiating with Israel enjoys the support of most major political forces.

Following a meeting with Aoun on Monday at the Presidential Palace, former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt said he supports the negotiations and the ceasefire agreement if they lead to a gradual or complete Israeli withdrawal.

“If the framework agreement leads to a withdrawal and the demarcation of the border, then where is the problem? This is my personal point of view, no more and no less,” he noted.

Hezbollah has stepped up its criticism of Aoun over his decision to pursue direct negotiations with Israel under US mediation, putting the Lebanese president at odd with the Shiite movement.

Following a meeting with the President on Monday, MP Alain Aoun said the success of the president’s efforts to end the war and restore Lebanese sovereignty requires cooperation from all Lebanese parties and engagement with the process of placing weapons exclusively under state authority.

The deputy called on Hezbollah to engage in dialogue with the president at Baabda Palace to agree on a roadmap aimed at advancing negotiations, securing an Israeli withdrawal and enabling the Lebanese Army to deploy across the country.

Arab World

What’s Left of Hezbollah Two Years after the War?

A poster expresses gratitude to Iran for its support to Lebanon. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A poster expresses gratitude to Iran for its support to Lebanon. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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What’s Left of Hezbollah Two Years after the War?

A poster expresses gratitude to Iran for its support to Lebanon. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A poster expresses gratitude to Iran for its support to Lebanon. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The expanded war in Lebanon, which erupted with widespread Israeli bombardment on September 23, 2024, and led to intense clashes and battlefield shifts, has forced a new reality on Hezbollah.

The Iran-backed group's military capabilities, supply lines, and political influence have significantly declined following severe losses within its senior leadership ranks. Furthermore, Hezbollah's deployment on the ground and operations have fundamentally changed compared to its pre-war positioning.

Two years later, the group is navigating a far more complex military landscape. While the loss of a vast portion of its leadership, declining drone and missile capabilities, and shrinking supply lines through Syria have severely weakened its position, the party still retains enough military capacity to continue operating.

It is actively attempting to reorganize its ranks and adapt to an altered battlefield reality - one that stretches from north of the Litani River into broader territory across southern Lebanon and the Western Bekaa.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, security and defense expert Riad Kahwaji estimated that Hezbollah's capabilities have significantly declined between 2024 and today across its leadership, military structure, political influence, and supply lines, evaluating the scale of this drop to have "exceeded nearly half."

He explained that the group has lost the vast majority of its first- and second-tier leaders, while most of the leaders present today were classified within the third tier in 2024.

Hezbollah supporters carry posters of slain Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei during a rally coinciding with his funeral in Iran in Beirut's southern suburbs. (EPA file)

The nature of management within the group has also changed, as "management in 2024 was local under Iranian guidance, whereas today management and guidance have become directly Iranian," he added.

On the military level, Kahwaji said that "the party's forces have become stationed north of the Litani, after having previously been present directly on the border."

"Nabatieh has practically become the separation line of contact between the group's presence and the Israeli forces," he noted.

Regarding the military arsenal, he said that "missile and drone capabilities still exist, but they have become less than half of what they were before."

He added that Hezbollah's political influence within Lebanon has significantly weakened from its previous levels, noting that one of the most prominent shifts affecting the group is the severe disruption of its supply lines through Syria, which have now been largely cut off.

Since the November 2024 ceasefire up to the current stage, retired Brigadier General Dr. Khalil Helou told Asharq Al-Awsat that the party’s "capabilities have dropped compared to what they were before the war, but it has not lost its military capacity and still possesses capabilities that allow it to continue."

Its limited responses to Israel during the current stage may be a sign that it has entered a new "phase of reorganization and rebuilding of combat readiness," he added.

Helou explained that the period following the November 2024 ceasefire was marked by ongoing Israeli assassinations targeting Hezbollah operatives, while the group largely refrained from retaliating.

This pattern underscores a significant drop in Hezbollah's capabilities compared to its pre-2024 strength, while simultaneously indicating that the group has been undergoing a phase of reorganization, rearmament, and rebuilding of its combat readiness, he noted.

Helou stressed that the strategic landscape shifted following the outbreak of the US war on Iran at the end of February, which Hezbollah joined in early March.

"From that point until the second ceasefire on June 17, the party engaged in the fighting, launching effective retaliatory operations in certain areas and firing missiles into both the Israeli interior and Israeli-occupied territories," Helou said.

He remarked that during that phase, Israel "advanced, made incursions, and established its presence on the ground," while Hezbollah continued to carry out military responses, though the situation following the latest ceasefire has returned to a pattern similar to the period that followed November 2024.

"Today, we have virtually returned to the previous phase, as Hezbollah's responses to Israeli attacks have become almost nonexistent," he stated. "If we review operations over the past two and a half months since the ceasefire, the military operations carried out by the group against Israel are highly limited and can be counted on two hands. This stands in sharp contrast to dozens of daily Israeli operations, including airstrikes, shelling, and assassinations."