Lebanon: Macron Expects The Worst... Hariri Considers Stepping Down

 Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri walks after meeting with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon March 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri walks after meeting with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon March 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon: Macron Expects The Worst... Hariri Considers Stepping Down

 Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri walks after meeting with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon March 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri walks after meeting with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon March 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

A senior political source stressed the need for Lebanon’s officials to deal seriously with the concerns expressed by French President Emmanuel Macron over the failure of efforts to form a government.

In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Lebanese source said that Macron was striving to ensure continued support to the Lebanese as their country is heading towards political vacuum, although he had pledged to defend his efforts to form a government that would lead the required reforms.

In a news conference on Thursday, Macron said: “We are technically working with several partners in the international community so that at some point, (...) if the absence of government persisted, we could succeed in preserving a system under international constraint, which would then allow the funding of essential activities and support for the Lebanese people.”

According to the Lebanese politician, Macron’s announcement confirmed the failed negotiations to form the government, which returned to square one, without any breakthrough that can be relied upon to resume the consultations.

The French president insists on securing the minimum level of services for the Lebanese to fortify social security, which would reassure the military establishment and other security forces to enable them to maintain stability, according to the political source, who added that Paris has almost given up hope that the ruling authority would be able to save Lebanon from collapse.

Meanwhile, a source in the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and Hezbollah) told Asharq Al-Awsat that their recent meeting with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, did not achieve any progress in the government formation issue, as the latter insists on granting President Michel Aoun a share of eight portfolios in a government of 24 ministers.

Sources well-informed of the meeting that took place between Bassil and the representatives of Amal Movement and Hezbollah stressed that Aoun has entrusted the government negotiations to his “political heir”, which means that he was willingly giving up his powers.

“Hariri’s patience will not last indefinitely,” according to the sources, who noted that the premier-designate was waiting for final answers from Aoun’s team to make a decision about maintaining his efforts or abandoning his mission.

Pending the developments of the coming days, Hariri’s decision will be based on coordination with his allies and consultation with Speaker Nabih Berri, who, for his part, launched an initiative to expedite the formation of the government.



Netanyahu ‘Takes Revenge’ on Macron in Lebanon

 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
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Netanyahu ‘Takes Revenge’ on Macron in Lebanon

 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)

Israel’s insistence that France can not be a member of the international committee that will monitor a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is due to a series of French practices that have disturbed Israel recently, political sources in Tel Aviv revealed.
These practices are most notably attributed to the French judge at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, who has joined other judges to unanimously issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the sources revealed.
“The Israeli government is following with concern the French role at The Hague,” they said, noting that veteran French lawyer Gilles Devers led a team of 300 international lawyers of various nationalities who volunteered to accuse Israel of “committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.”
According to the Israeli Maariv newspaper, Israeli officials believe that Devers, who signed the arrest warrant against Netanyahu and Galant, would not have dared to do so without having received a green light from French President Emmanuel Macron.
Israeli sources also mentioned other reasons for Israel’s anger at France, such as the government’s decision to bar Israeli firms from exhibiting at the Euronaval arms show near Paris earlier this month.
French officials have repeatedly said that Paris is committed to Israel's security and point out that its military helped defend Israel after Iranian attacks in April and earlier this month.
Paris has so far also refused to recognize the Palestinian state. But the Israeli government is not satisfied. It wants France to follow the United States and blindly support its war in Gaza and Lebanon.
Tel Aviv also feels incredibly confident that France should be punished, and therefore, decided that Paris could not participate in the Lebanese ceasefire agreement, knowing that the Israeli government itself has traveled to Paris several times begging for its intervention, especially during the war on Lebanon.
Meanwhile, an air of optimism has emerged in Israel around the chances for an end to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon following negotiations led by US envoy Amos Hochstein.
But any optimism relies on Netanyahu’s final decision. The PM is still conducting talks with his friends and allies of the far right who reject the ceasefire agreement and instead, demand that Lebanese citizens not be allowed to return to their villages on the border with Israel. They also request that a security belt be turned into a permanently depopulated and mined zone.
Hochstein Talks
Meanwhile, political sources in Israel claim that what is holding up a ceasefire deal so far is Lebanon. According to Israel's Channel 12, Hochstein expressed a “firm stance” during his talks with the Lebanese side. The envoy delivered clear terms that were passed on to Hezbollah, which the channel said “led to significant progress” in the talks.
Israeli officials said that Tel Aviv is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with Hezbollah in the coming days.
The channel said that during his late visit to Tel Aviv, coming from Beirut after talks with Speaker Nabih Barri, Hochstein said, “I placed before them (Lebanese officials) a final warning, and it seems to have been effective.”
Iran Obstacle
Despite the “positive atmosphere,” informed diplomatic sources pointed to a major obstacle: Iran.
Channel 12 quoted the sources as saying that Lebanon has not yet received the final approval required from Iran, which has significant influence over Hezbollah.

According to the draft proposal, the Lebanese Army must be redeployed to the south and carry out a comprehensive operation to remove weapons from villages. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will “supervise and monitor the implementation of the operation.”
Channel 12 said Israel believes that such details could still derail the agreement. It also said that Hezbollah could violate the truce.
“In such cases, Israel would have to conduct military operations inside the Lebanese territory,” the channel reported, adding that “one of the unsettled issues is related to the committee that will oversee the implementation of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon.”
The sources said Tel Aviv “insists that France is not part of the agreement, nor part of the committee that will oversee its implementation.”