Drying Euphrates Threatens Disaster in Syria

Aid groups and engineers are warning of a looming humanitarian disaster in northeast Syria, where waning river flow is compounding woes after a decade of war. AFP
Aid groups and engineers are warning of a looming humanitarian disaster in northeast Syria, where waning river flow is compounding woes after a decade of war. AFP
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Drying Euphrates Threatens Disaster in Syria

Aid groups and engineers are warning of a looming humanitarian disaster in northeast Syria, where waning river flow is compounding woes after a decade of war. AFP
Aid groups and engineers are warning of a looming humanitarian disaster in northeast Syria, where waning river flow is compounding woes after a decade of war. AFP

Syria's longest river used to flow by his olive grove, but today Khaled al-Khamees says it has receded into the distance, parching his trees and leaving his family with hardly a drop to drink.

"It's as if we were in the desert," said the 50-year-old farmer, standing on what last year was the Euphrates riverbed.

"We're thinking of leaving because there's no water left to drink or irrigate the trees."

Aid groups and engineers are warning of a looming humanitarian disaster in northeast Syria, where waning river flow is compounding woes after a decade of war.

They say plummeting water levels at hydroelectric dams since January are threatening water and power cutoffs for up to five million Syrians, in the middle of a coronavirus pandemic and economic crisis.

As drought grips the Mediterranean region, many in the Kurdish-held area are accusing neighbor and archfoe Turkey of weaponizing water by tightening the tap upstream, though a Turkish source denied this.

Outside the village of Rumayleh where Khamees lives, black irrigation hoses lay in dusty coils after the river receded so far it became too expensive to operate the water pumps.

Instead, much closer to the water's edge, Khamees and neighbors were busy planting corn and beans in soil just last year submerged under the current.

The father of 12 said he had not seen the river so far away from the village in decades.

"The women have to walk seven kilometers just to get a bucket of water for their children to drink," he said.

Reputed to have once flown through the biblical Garden of Eden, the Euphrates runs for almost 2,800 kilometers across Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

In times of rain, it gushes into northern Syria through the Turkish border, and flows diagonally across the war-torn country towards Iraq.

Along its way, it irrigates swathes of land in Syria's breadbasket, and runs through three hydroelectric dams that provide power and drinking water to millions.

But over the past eight months the river has contracted to a sliver, sucking precious water out of reservoirs and increasing the risk of dam turbines grinding to a halt.

At the Tishrin Dam, the first into which the river falls inside Syria, director Hammoud al-Hadiyyeen described an "alarming" drop in water levels not seen since the dam's completion in 1999.
"It's a humanitarian catastrophe," he said.

Since January, the water level has plummeted by five meters, and now hovers just dozens of centimeters above "dead level" when turbines are supposed to completely stop producing electricity.

Across northeast Syria, already power generation has fallen by 70 percent since last year, the head of the energy authority Welat Darwish says.

Two out of three of all potable water stations along the river are pumping less water or have stopped working, humanitarian groups say.

Almost 90 percent of the Euphrates flow comes from Turkey, the United Nations says.

To ensure Syria's fair share, Turkey in 1987 agreed to allow an annual average of 500 cubic meters per second of water across its border.

But that has dropped to as low as 200 in recent months, engineers claim.

Inside Syria, the Euphrates flows mostly along territory controlled by semi-autonomous Kurdish authorities, whose US-backed fighters have over the years wrested its dams and towns from ISIS.

Turkey however regards those Kurdish fighters as linked to its outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and has grabbed land from them during Syria's war.

Syria's Kurds have accused Ankara of holding back more water than necessary in its dams, and Damascus in June urged Turkey to increase the flow immediately.

But a Turkish diplomatic source told AFP Turkey had "never reduced the amount of water it releases from its trans-boundary rivers for political or other purposes".

"Our region is facing one of the worst drought periods due to climate change," and rainfall in southern Turkey was "the lowest in the last 30 years", this source said.

Analyst Nicholas Heras said Turkey did hold leverage over Syria and Iraq with the huge Ataturk Dam just 80 kilometers from the Syrian border, but it was debatable whether Ankara wanted to use it.

That would mean "international complications for Ankara, both with the United States and Russia", a key Damascus ally across the table in Syria peace talks.

"The easier, and more frequently utilized, water weapon that Ankara uses is the Alouk plant" that it seized from the Kurds in 2019, Heras said.

Fresh water supply from the station on another river has been disrupted at least 24 times since 2019, affecting 460,000 people, the United Nations says.

But Syria analyst Fabrice Balanche said the drought did serve Ankara's long-term goal of "asphyxiating northeast Syria economically".

"In periods of drought, Turkey helps itself and leaves the rest for the Kurds, in defiance and in full knowledge of the consequences," he said.

Wim Zwijnenburg, of the PAX peace organization, said Turkey was struggling to provide enough water for "megalomanic" agricultural projects set up in the 1990s, a challenge now complicated by climate change.

"The big picture is drought is coming," he said.

"We already see a rapid decline in healthy vegetation growth on satellite analysis" in both Syria and Turkey.

A UN climate change report this month found human influence had almost definitely increased the frequency of simultaneous heatwaves and droughts worldwide.

These dry spells are to become longer and more severe around the Mediterranean, the United Nations has warned, with Syria most at risk, according to the 2019 Global Crisis Risk Index.
Downstream from the Tishrin Dam, the Euphrates pools in the depths of Lake Assad.

But today Syria's largest fresh water reservoir too has withdrawn inwards.

On its banks, men with tar-stained hands worked to repair generators exhausted from pumping water across much further distances than in previous years.

Agricultural worker Hussein Saleh, 56, was desperate.

"We can no longer afford the hoses or the generators," said the father of 12.

"The olive trees are thirsty and the animals are hungry."

At home, in the village of Twihiniyyeh, power cuts had increased from nine to 19 hours a day, he said.

At the country's largest dam of Tabqa to the south, veteran engineer Khaled Shaheen was worried.

"We're trying to diminish how much water we send through," he said.

But "if it continues like this, we could stop electricity production for all except... bakeries, flour mills and hospitals."

Meanwhile, among five million people depending on the Euphrates for drinking water, more and more families are ingesting liquid that is unsafe.

Those cut off from the network instead pay for deliveries from private water trucks.

But these tankers most often draw water directly from the river -- where wastewater concentration is high due to low flow -- and these supplies are not filtered.

Waterborne disease outbreaks are on the rise, and contaminated ice has caused diarrhea in displacement camps, according to the NES Forum, an NGO coordination body for the region.

Marwa Daoudy, a Syrian scholar of environmental security, said the decreasing flow of the Euphrates was "very alarming".

"These levels threaten whole rural communities in the Euphrates Basin whose livelihood depends on agriculture and irrigation," she said.

Aid groups say drought conditions have already destroyed large swathes of rain-fed crops in Syria, a country where 60 percent of people already struggle to put food on the table.

In some communities, animals have started to die, the NES Forum has said.

The United Nations says barley production could drop by 1.2 million tons this year, making animal feed more scarce.

Balanche said Syria was likely facing a years-long drought not seen since one from 2005 to 2010, before the civil war.

"The northeast, but also all of Syria, will be short on food, and will need to import massive quantities of cereals."

Downstream in Iraq, seven million more people risked losing access to water from the river, the Norwegian Refugee Council's Karl Schembri said.

"Climate doesn't look at borders," he said.



Why Israel Fears Military Rapprochement Between Egypt and Türkiye

Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
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Why Israel Fears Military Rapprochement Between Egypt and Türkiye

Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)

The growing rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye is raising concern in Israel, particularly as military cooperation expands through joint training and exercises between two of the region’s largest and most strategically significant armed forces.

Those concerns resurfaced after international military drills involving Egyptian and Turkish forces concluded in the Libyan city of Sirte.

Experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said the unease stems from several factors, including the two countries’ military weight and their growing alignment on regional issues and defense manufacturing.

They expect the rapprochement could evolve into a regional alliance with expanding influence, while ruling out any imminent military confrontation.

Israeli concerns

The Israeli newspaper Maariv published an article by retired general Yitzhak Brik warning that Tel Aviv could face a “difficult war” against a potential Egyptian-Turkish alliance as both countries strengthen their military capabilities.

Brik warned that strategic cooperation between Cairo and Ankara could extend to joint military production and defense integration.

Any military rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye, he said, could reshape deterrence dynamics in the region and pose new security challenges for Israel, requiring a comprehensive reassessment of its military doctrine and defense strategies.

Israeli channel i24NEWS reported on April 18 that talks between Egypt and Türkiye were accelerating, noting that in-depth discussions had been referred to Turkish parliamentary committees on security, defense, and intelligence.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo in February, where several agreements were signed, including in the defense sector. During a joint press conference, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said the two countries share converging views on regional and international issues, particularly Gaza, Sudan, Libya and the Horn of Africa.

Israel has also expressed reservations about the possibility of Ankara participating in international stabilization forces in Gaza, after Türkiye became involved in mediation and guarantees for implementing a ceasefire agreement in October. Media reports have also pointed to the possibility of a future military confrontation between Israel and Türkiye following tensions linked to Iran.

‘Cold peace’

Egyptian military and strategic expert Samir Ragheb said Türkiye’s direct presence in the region, combined with its rapprochement with Egypt, reinforces what he described as a “cold peace” with Israel.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Cairo and Ankara command the region’s two largest armies and maintain strong ties with key regional powers, something Israel views with concern.

One of the most sensitive issues for Israel, he said, is cooperation in drone manufacturing.

Both Egypt and Türkiye have significant capabilities in this field, and joint production could meet their domestic needs while positioning them as strong competitors to Israeli drones in regional markets, particularly as negative perceptions of Israeli products grow due to ongoing conflicts, making Egyptian-Turkish alternatives more appealing.

Coordination between Egypt and Türkiye spans a broad geographic arc from Somalia to Syria, including Libya. This, Ragheb said, adds to Israeli concerns, particularly as Türkiye seeks to expand its footprint in Africa through Egypt, the continent’s main gateway.

Turkish affairs researcher Taha Ouda Oglu told Asharq Al-Awsat that cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye on Gaza, Libya and Africa is further raising Israeli concerns.

Rising military cooperation

Military cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye has accelerated in recent months. In late 2025, for the first time in 13 years, Egyptian forces took part in joint naval exercises on Turkish soil, involving Turkish frigates, attack boats, a submarine and F-16 fighter jets, alongside Egyptian naval units.

Türkiye’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday that the “Flintlock 2026” exercises, which were in Sirte from April 13 to 30, had concluded. The drills, which included Egyptian forces, aimed to enhance military cooperation and combat readiness through integrated land, air and naval scenarios.

In September, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a televised interview that Ankara is seeking to strengthen cooperation with Egypt in defense industries and joint security, noting that regional threats are driving deeper discussions on security as ties develop.

Egypt and Türkiye also signed an agreement in late August to locally produce the “Turkha” drone in Egypt, a step aimed at localizing drone technology and boosting domestic defense industries. The aircraft features advanced surveillance and reconnaissance systems and vertical takeoff and landing capabilities.

Ragheb ruled out the possibility of Israel waging a military confrontation against either Egypt or Türkiye, saying Israeli military doctrine does not allow for fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously against major powers.

He added that the United States would be unlikely to support Israel in a war against countries the size of Egypt or Türkiye, noting both nations rely on deterrence through strength rather than rhetoric.

He said the rapprochement, while not directed against Israel, could evolve into a broader regional alliance that may include major countries, such as Pakistan.

Oglu said military cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye is likely to deepen further and expand across multiple arenas, increasing their influence in the region, without leading to a direct confrontation with Israel.


Sudanese Schoolchildren Race to Make Up for Years Lost to War

Displaced Sudanese students attend a class at an elementary school run by the Sudanese Coalition for Education in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan, on April 26, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced Sudanese students attend a class at an elementary school run by the Sudanese Coalition for Education in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan, on April 26, 2026. (AFP)
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Sudanese Schoolchildren Race to Make Up for Years Lost to War

Displaced Sudanese students attend a class at an elementary school run by the Sudanese Coalition for Education in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan, on April 26, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced Sudanese students attend a class at an elementary school run by the Sudanese Coalition for Education in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan, on April 26, 2026. (AFP)

Sudanese 13-year-old Afrah wants to become a surgeon, and nothing will stop her, not even the war that has ravaged her country and forced millions of children out of school.

Quiet and determined, she kept learning on her own for months, uprooted by the now three-year conflict between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

"I would study my lessons again and again," she told AFP at a displacement camp in Port Sudan, where she is again receiving an education thanks to UNICEF and local organization SCEFA.

Afrah is one of more than 25 million minors in Sudan, or half the total population, of whom eight million are currently out of school, according to the UN children's agency.

At the Al-Hishan camp, tents arranged in a square function as an elementary school for more than 1,000 children -- nearly a third of whom required an accelerated curriculum to make up for lost time.

Laughter fills the camp now, but most of the children arrived traumatized by horrors including starvation and rocket fire.

Their drawings, educators said, were at first dominated by war: depictions of the tanks, weapons and death they saw as their families fled.

"They come here scared, exhausted, isolated, but over time you see their drawings change," UNICEF spokesperson Mira Nasser told AFP.

"They start to adapt and process."

In one tent, children repeated hand-washing instructions after a social worker, while in another, they recited a poem in choral unison.

Elsewhere, a teacher -- herself displaced and living at the camp -- explained chemical and physical reactions to her class, as her three-year-old son pulled at her skirt.

"These children's future is at stake, and education is itself a form of protection," Nasser said.

"Here they can at least get a sense of normalcy, even in a displacement site. They can resume their education, they can play, they can make friends."

Displaced Sudanese students attend a class at an elementary school run by the Sudanese Coalition for Education in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan, on April 26, 2026. (AFP)

- DIY operation -

Awatef al-Ghaly, a 48-year-old Arabic teacher who was displaced from North Darfur, remembered her first days at the site, when thousands of families were left listless with their kids in tow.

"There were 60 teachers here. We just got to work," she told AFP, at the same empty plot where they started, in the shadow of the Red Sea mountains.

They lined the students up by grade, threw together a schedule and started going through old lessons.

Soad Awadallah, 52, taught English for four decades in South Darfur before arriving in Port Sudan.

"It took a lot of patience, we had the kids all sat on the ground at first," she said, gesturing towards the rows of desks that now fill the tents, a welcome addition even if students have to squeeze in four to a bench.

According to Nasser, because of the time that students lost, ranging from months to years, "some even forgot how to read and write".

But their determination was indomitable, and the makeshift school recently graduated its first class from elementary to middle school, Ghaly said with pride.

"Even when things were difficult, in the heat of summer with bugs everywhere, the kids wanted to learn," she said.

Before the final exam, "some of them would follow us teachers home begging for more review sessions".

Sudanese students leave a school operated by the Sudanese Coalition for Education for All, in partnership with the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), south of Port Sudan on April 26, 2026. (AFP)

- 'Want to help people' -

Fatma, 16, wants to become a psychiatrist to help those hurt by the fighting in Sudan.

"This war has destroyed people emotionally... My father was in the main market in Khartoum when the RSF went through killing people. He ran away, and he still feels that pain," she told AFP.

"When I sit with the social worker, I feel better. I want to help people like that."

One little girl, who came up to an AFP journalist's hip, was missing her right arm, amputated after she was wounded in the capital Khartoum.

She high-fived with her left hand.

Across Sudan, five million children are internally displaced, according to UNICEF. Millions are going hungry, including over 825,000 children under five suffering severe acute malnutrition.

The use of child soldiers has been reported across the country, and rampant sexual violence against minors has prevented many from returning to school even in areas now safe from the fighting.

Many just want to go home.

"I miss my friends and my family, I miss my school in Khartoum -- it was full of trees," 14-year-old Ibrahim said.

But he has a goal. "I want to become a petroleum engineer," he told AFP, as the sound of children playing outside filled the tent.

During recess, dozens of pupils dashed around their teachers, laughing, playing and making hearts at AFP's cameras.

One boy named Rizeq, clad in a red Manchester United jersey, steeled himself and walked up to the adults.

His voice a little shaky but his chest puffed out, he said: "I want more English classes in the evening."


Timeline of Decades of Conflict Between Israel and Hezbollah

 Mourners carry coffins during a funeral ceremony of four Hezbollah fighters and two civilians, amid a temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, in the village of Maaroub, southern Lebanon, April 26, 2026. (Reuters)
Mourners carry coffins during a funeral ceremony of four Hezbollah fighters and two civilians, amid a temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, in the village of Maaroub, southern Lebanon, April 26, 2026. (Reuters)
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Timeline of Decades of Conflict Between Israel and Hezbollah

 Mourners carry coffins during a funeral ceremony of four Hezbollah fighters and two civilians, amid a temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, in the village of Maaroub, southern Lebanon, April 26, 2026. (Reuters)
Mourners carry coffins during a funeral ceremony of four Hezbollah fighters and two civilians, amid a temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, in the village of Maaroub, southern Lebanon, April 26, 2026. (Reuters)

The ongoing war between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah is far from the first conflict between them. The two have an enmity that goes back more than four decades, with outbursts of fighting or outright war punctuated by periods of tense calm.

Here is a timeline of some significant events in the hostilities between the two:

1982: Israel invades Lebanon in an offensive against the Palestine Liberation Organization and allied groups. Hezbollah is formed, with Iranian backing and based on the Iran's revolution model, to fight Israel’s ensuing occupation of southern Lebanon. It launches a guerrilla war against Israel.

1992: Hezbollah leader Abbas Mousawi is killed by an Israeli helicopter attack. His successor is Hassan Nasrallah, who will lead the group for the next three decades.

1996: Israel launches an offensive aiming to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border. Israeli artillery shelling on a United Nations compound housing hundreds of displaced people in Qana kills at least 100 civilians and wounds scores more.

2000: After a long war of attrition, Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon, which is heralded around the Arab world as a major victory for Hezbollah.

2006: Hezbollah fighters ambush an Israeli patrol, killing three Israeli soldiers and taking two hostage in a cross-border raid, sparking a monthlong war between Hezbollah and Israel that ends in a draw. Israeli bombardment razes villages and residential blocks in southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, a scorched-earth approach that is dubbed the “Dahiyeh Doctrine.”

2008: Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah’s military chief, is killed when a bomb planted in his car exploded in Damascus. The assassination is blamed on Israel.

2012: Hezbollah enters the Syrian civil war in support of then-President Bashar Assad. In the years that follow, Israel begins periodically carrying out airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian and Hezbollah facilities and officials or weapons shipments that it said were bound for Hezbollah. Israel still avoided carrying out strikes on Hezbollah on Lebanese territory during this period.

OCT. 8, 2023: One day after the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel sparks the war in Gaza, Hezbollah fires missiles across the border. Israel responds with airstrikes and shelling and the two enter into a low-level conflict that initially remains mainly confined to the border area.

SEPT. 17, 2024: Israel launches an attack in Lebanon using remotely-triggered explosive-laden pagers issued to Hezbollah fighters and civilian employees. A day later, a similar attack targets walkie-talkies. The attacks kill dozens of people and maim thousands, most of them Hezbollah members but also including women and children.

SEPT. 27, 2024: Hassan Nasrallah is killed in a series of massive airstrikes in Beirut's southern suburbs.

NOV. 27, 2024: A US-brokered ceasefire nominally ends the Israel-Hezbollah war. Israel continues to carry out regular strikes in Lebanon that it says aim to stop Hezbollah from rebuilding.

MARCH 2, 2026: Two days after Israel and the US attacked Iran, triggering a wide-reaching war in the Middle East, Hezbollah launches missiles toward Israel. It says the salvo is in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and for “repeated Israeli aggressions” in Lebanon.