OPEC Expects Delta Variant to Delay Oil Demand Growth
OPEC said it expects oil demand to average 99.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021. Reuters
OPEC on Monday trimmed its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 due to the Delta coronavirus variant, saying a further recovery would be delayed until next year when consumption will exceed pre-pandemic rates.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report it expects oil demand to average 99.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 110,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
"The increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fueled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year," OPEC said in the report.
"As a result, second-half 2021 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into first-half 2022."
Governments, companies and traders are closely monitoring the speed that oil demand recovers from last year's crash. A faster return, as predicted by OPEC, could boost prices and challenge the view that the impact of the pandemic may curb consumption for longer or for good.
Oil was trading above $73 a barrel after the report was released. Prices have risen over 40% this year, boosted by economic recovery hopes and OPEC+ supply cuts, although concern about the Delta variant has weighed.
Despite the downward revision to the fourth-quarter, OPEC said world oil demand in the whole of 2021 would rise by 5.96 million bpd or 6.6%, virtually unchanged from last month.
The growth forecast for 2022 was adjusted to 4.15 million bpd, compared to 3.28 million bpd in last month's report and an estimate of 4.2 million bpd given by OPEC sources during the group's last meeting on Sept. 1.
"The pace of recovery in oil demand is now assumed to be stronger and mostly taking place in 2022," Reuters quoted OPEC as saying.
"As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels."
GCC: Railway Agreement Sets Joint Framework for Project Implementation and Operation
GCC transport ministers pose for a group photo following the 27th committee meeting in Kuwait. (GCC Railway Authority)
Jasem Albudaiwi, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), said on Sunday that the signing of the General Agreement on the GCC Railway Project marked an important step toward establishing an integrated regional transport network.
He said the network would facilitate the movement of citizens and residents, ease freight transport, boost intra-GCC trade efficiency and strengthen member states’ economic competitiveness and the region’s position in regional and international trade.
Albudaiwi's remarks came at the signing ceremony in the Bahraini capital, Manama, on Sunday, held under the patronage and in the presence of Bahrain’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa.
He said the project reflected the GCC’s shared ambition to connect member states and improve mobility and trade by linking their economic and industrial hubs, ports and logistics centers.
He added that the project would create opportunities for safe, reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly transport services that meet development needs, serve the aspirations of future generations and strengthen economic integration among GCC states.
Albudaiwi said the agreement sets a common framework for member states to implement and operate the project in coordination with their national railway networks, while establishing mechanisms and a timetable to accelerate its completion.
Albudaiwi praised GCC leaders and transport ministers for their support of strategic regional projects, thanking Bahrain’s crown prince and prime minister for hosting the signing ceremony and officials for advancing the railway project.
Mega Projects Drive Growth for Saudi Small and Medium Factorieshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5338869-mega-projects-drive-growth-saudi-small-and-medium-factories
Mega Projects Drive Growth for Saudi Small and Medium Factories
A factory in Madinah’s industrial city. (SPA)
Mega projects in Saudi Arabia are offering increasing opportunities for small and medium-sized factories to expand their businesses and integrate into local supply chains. This shift is accompanied by growing demand for industrial products and auxiliary services, including transport, warehousing, maintenance, and engineering services.
This demand has the potential to broaden the domestic manufacturing base, enabling factories to scale up capacity and upgrade their products rather than limiting their operations to meeting existing market needs. However, capitalizing on these opportunities remains contingent on the factories' ability to overcome financing and liquidity challenges, secure qualification from major corporations, and meet strict requirements for volume, specifications, and delivery schedules.
Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat noted that integrating small and medium-sized industrial enterprises into supply chains requires tailoring opportunities to match their actual capacities. They also stressed the need to develop financing solutions that assist these companies in executing contracts, alongside creating avenues for them to build a track record that qualifies them to compete for larger orders.
A worker at a factory in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
Mega projects expand domestic demand base
Dr. Abdullah Al-Salloum, a finance professor at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, stated that small and medium-sized enterprises represent roughly 90 percent of global businesses, provide 60 to 70 percent of employment, and account for about 50 percent of the world's GDP.
Strengthening their role in industrial activity remains a primary developmental objective, he added.
He explained that Saudi Arabia is working to expand the contribution of these enterprises by developing the regulatory environment and national industrial strategies, improving logistics services, and reducing investment risks, as well as stimulating demand for local products through mega projects, value chains, procurement, and local content programs.
Al-Salloum added that the industrial ecosystem provides financing solutions and demand guarantees for national products, alongside qualification and operational support programs. He cited the industrial business accelerator affiliated with the Public Investment Fund, which he said received 350 applications over the past year.
These initiatives offer domestic manufacturing an opportunity to strengthen its presence in the local market and leverage that footing to expand into regional and international markets, he remarked.
The participation of small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chains of mega projects is not limited to factories producing goods, but extends to supporting activities and services, such as transport, warehousing, maintenance, and engineering services, thereby expanding the base of beneficiaries from investment spending, he said.
The higher the capacity of local industry to meet the needs of these projects, the greater the share of spending that remains within the national economy, he explained.
He cited as an example the spending of the PIF and its subsidiaries on local content, which reached 207 billion riyals ($55.2 billion) during 2024, according to an announcement by the fund's governor, Yasir Al-Rumayyan. He explained that while this figure is not exclusive to small and medium enterprises or industrial factories, it reflects the volume of demand that local factories can leverage to expand their businesses and develop their products.
Visitors at the 2025 Saudi Industrial Expo. (Saudi Made)
Al-Salloum explained that recurring orders help factories raise their capacity utilization rates and distribute fixed costs across a larger number of units, thereby improving efficiency and enabling them to invest in equipment, technologies, and workforce training. It also provides them with a supply track record and practical experience that can be leveraged to attract new clients both within Saudi Arabia and abroad.
He said that reducing reliance on imports is linked to the capacity of local industry to produce a wider range of goods, components, and services that were previously imported, increasing domestic value-added, while acknowledging the continued need for certain imports during the initial stages of industrial development.
Al-Salloum added that the expansion of domestic production creates jobs across multiple fields, including technicians, engineers, and workers in quality control, operations, and maintenance.
The sustainability of these jobs depends on the factories' capacity to diversify their client base and avoid relying on a single project or entity, he remarked.
Liquidity and demand continuity present challenges for factories
Consulting engineer Abdulaziz Aba Arrous, CEO of A&BC for Safety Tools and Materials Manufacturing, stated that while the Saudi industrial sector has received government support and incentives that helped boost confidence in investment and expansion, factories still face daily challenges related to liquidity and demand continuity.
He explained that executing a large order requires the factory to purchase raw materials and pay wages and production costs before collecting its dues, creating a financing gap between the start of implementation and receiving the supply value. Furthermore, scaling up production capacity demands investment in equipment and recruiting qualified technical labor, as well as bearing continuous operational obligations.
Clarity regarding future demand, the availability of long-term contracts, and the regular settlement of dues are factors that help enterprises plan, expand, and utilize available support and incentives, rather than operating under intermittent orders that make it difficult to determine production and investment needs, he continued.
Aba Arrous said that opportunities for small and medium-sized factories to enter the supply chains of mega projects exist, but they vary depending on the nature of the product, the volume of demand, and the factory's ability to commit to specifications, quantities, and delivery schedules.
He added that the "Etimad" platform allows enterprises to view government tenders, while the preference for national products, in accordance with applicable regulations, contributes to boosting the competitiveness of local factories. However, the challenge with major corporations often begins at the stage of registration and qualification as an approved supplier, prior to accessing an actual supply opportunity.
Aba Arrous explained that while a factory may possess a quality product and adequate production capacity, it often faces lengthy qualification procedures, or orders with volumes and payment terms that exceed its financial capabilities. Therefore, he highlighted the importance of awarding small and medium-sized enterprises initial orders tailored to their capacities, with the volume of business scaling up based on execution quality and adherence to delivery schedules.
This approach allows the factory to prove its capability while enabling the buyer to assess its actual performance, he noted.
Qualification and financing requirements determine expansion opportunities
Regarding the obstacles preventing factories from securing supply contracts, Al-Salloum stated that financing challenges, production capacity, qualification requirements, and contract accessibility are interconnected.
A factory may possess a quality product but lack the experience necessary to qualify as a supplier, or it may secure a contract without having sufficient liquidity to execute it, he explained.
He pointed to the PIF's announcement in September 2026 of the launch of the "Tawreed" company, aimed at providing supply chain financing products, including early payment against approved invoices. He said that while these solutions can improve cash flows for factories, they do not replace the need for pre-invoice financing, which is essential for the enterprise to purchase raw materials and commence production.
Quality, safety, and compliance requirements are essential, but experience, financial solvency, and guarantee demands should align with the contract size and the nature of its risks, preventing qualification criteria from becoming a barrier to smaller factories, he added.
He also called for providing these enterprises with opportunities to prove their capabilities through smaller orders before moving to larger contracts.
A view inside of a Saudi factory. (Vision 2030)
For his part, Aba Arrous explained that small and medium-sized factories are capable of supplying various products to mega projects, including metal products, electrical components, packaging materials, and safety equipment, alongside maintenance services and custom manufacturing.
He noted that his company operates in the field of industrial safety equipment, and its products include personal protective equipment for industrial sector workers, such as flame- and heat-resistant clothing and cut-resistant gloves, whose specifications are determined according to the nature of the hazards and usage requirements.
He added that the proximity of local factories to clients gives them an advantage in monitoring their needs, managing variations in quantities and sizes, and responding to required modifications, compared to direct imports which may take longer in some cases. This proximity helps in developing products and building ongoing supply relationships with clients.
Client diversification ensures sustainable growth
Al-Salloum stressed that overreliance on mega projects or government initiatives could expose enterprises to single-customer concentration risks, making productivity improvements, cost controls, and customer base diversification essential for business sustainability, rather than tying the factory's future to specific contracts or a single entity.
The most significant developmental impact of small and medium factories participating in these projects extends to building more productive enterprises, developing worker skills, and forming a baseline of competitive national products, enabling local industry to sustain itself and grow after the projects conclude, he said.
Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpdhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5338615-iraq-oil-output-exceeds-5-million-bpd
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.
According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.
The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.
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