Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil dropped more than $1 a barrel to below $75 on Monday as rising risk aversion weighed on stock markets and boosted the US dollar, while more US Gulf oil output came back online in the wake of two hurricanes.

The dollar rallied to its highest in a month on Monday as pending catastrophe at developer China Evergrande added to a cautious mood and as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to take another step towards tapering this week, Reuters reported.

"Far East stock markets and the strong dollar are affecting oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Nonetheless, unless all hell breaks loose, the positive sentiment ought to prevail."

Brent crude fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $74.58 at 0815 GMT, having dropped as low as $74.26 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.08.

A stronger dollar makes US dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and generally reflects higher risk aversion, which tends to weigh on oil prices.

Brent has gained 44% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies and some recovery in demand after last year's pandemic-induced collapse.

Oil had gained additional support from supply shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the two recent hurricanes, but as of Friday producing companies had just 23% of crude production offline, or 422,078 barrels per day.

"US production in the Gulf of Mexico, which had been shut down as a result of the hurricane, is gradually returning to the market," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

A rise in the US rig count, an early indicator of future output, to its highest since April 2020 also kept a lid on prices.



Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
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Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, tracking global prices, with analysts expecting weak export activity due to the upcoming long New Year holiday.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of January was up $3 to $237 per metric ton.

The Sovecon consultancy saw prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at $233 to $239 per ton, compared with $232 to $238 the previous week.

Russian FOB is expected to be mostly flat on low trade activity, the agency said in a weekly report.

Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.83 million metric tons, including 0.78 million tons of wheat, up from 0.53 million tons of grain including 0.44 million tons of wheat the previous week as shipments recovered after storm disruptions. Sovecon has upgraded its estimates of December wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, compared to 3.6 million tons a year ago.

IKAR estimates December wheat exports at 3.6-3.7 million tons, down from 4.4 million tons in November. Algeria is believed to have purchased 1.17 million tons of wheat this week. Some traders also expect some Russian wheat to be supplied. Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, contracted about 1.267 million tons of wheat, most of which was sourced from Russia, two sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.

Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy said on Thursday it saw 2025/26 wheat exports down 6% to 41 million tons. Sovecon said on Monday that Russian wheat exports will fall by 17% to 36.4 million tons in the 2025/26 exporting season. Its forecast for the 2024/2025 season was revised to 43.7 million tons, from 44.1 million tons.

Russia harvested 125 million tons of grain and legumes, including 82 million tons of wheat, in clean weight, in 2024, down 13% from last year, data from statistical agency Rosstat showed on Thursday.

The wheat harvest is also down by 13%, to 82.4 million tons. Winter grains were sown over 17.6 million hectares, 1 million hectares less than in 2023. Temperatures remain above normal in all regions, Sovecon noted. The Russian state weather forecasting agency sees worsening conditions for winter cereals in January in the center of Russia and the Volga region.