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Turkish Central Bank Stuns Lira with Rate Cut

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
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Turkish Central Bank Stuns Lira with Rate Cut

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

Turkey's central bank unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 18% on Thursday, delivering stimulus long sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan despite high inflation, and sending the lira to near a record low.

The central bank was widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 19%, where they had been since March, given inflation reached 19.25% last month. Only two of 17 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a cut.

But Governor Sahap Kavcioglu - whom Erdogan installed at the bank in March - has sounded more dovish in recent weeks, paving the way for Turkey's first monetary easing since May 2020 and ending a tightening cycle that began 12 months ago.

Analysts said the move reflected Erdogan's heavy hand on monetary policy and teed up more easing that risked sustaining double-digit inflation and high living costs for Turks for a long while to come.

The lira - among the worst performers in emerging markets for several years running due in large part to bruised central bank credibility - tumbled as much as 1.5%. It was worth 8.74 to the dollar at 1253 GMT, near a record low of 8.88 touched in June. It weakened as far as 8.808.

"This will not help the central bank's already fragile credibility, and the market reaction is likely to be quite severe," said Roger Kelly, lead regional economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Istanbul.

"Most expected rates to remain unchanged for at least another month."

The cut left Turkey with the most negative real rate across emerging markets, a red flag for investors.

Yet early this month, Kavcioglu began emphasizing core inflation, which stood below 17% in August. He also said policy was tight enough to cool price rises in the fourth quarter.

The central bank's policy committee said a rate cut was needed because of the lower core price measures - which strip out food and some other goods - as well as shocks to supply in the wake of pandemic measures.

The recent rises in inflation "are due to transitory factors", Reuters quoted it as saying. "The tightness in monetary stance has started to have a higher than envisaged contractionary effect on commercial loans."

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Business

US Allows Oil Majors to Resume Venezuela Operations, Broadly Okays New Energy Investments

A flame burning natural gas is seen at an heavy-crude treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, in the oil rich Orinoco belt, near Cabrutica at the state of Anzoategui April 16, 2015. (Reuters)
A flame burning natural gas is seen at an heavy-crude treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, in the oil rich Orinoco belt, near Cabrutica at the state of Anzoategui April 16, 2015. (Reuters)
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US Allows Oil Majors to Resume Venezuela Operations, Broadly Okays New Energy Investments

A flame burning natural gas is seen at an heavy-crude treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, in the oil rich Orinoco belt, near Cabrutica at the state of Anzoategui April 16, 2015. (Reuters)
A flame burning natural gas is seen at an heavy-crude treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, in the oil rich Orinoco belt, near Cabrutica at the state of Anzoategui April 16, 2015. (Reuters)

The US eased sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector on Friday, issuing two general licenses that allow global energy companies to resume oil and gas operations in the OPEC member and for other companies to negotiate contracts on investments in new energy operations.

The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license allowing Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell and Repsol to resume ‌oil and gas ‌operations in Venezuela. Those companies still have offices in the ‌country.

The ⁠authorization for the ⁠oil majors' resumption of operations requires payments for royalties and Venezuelan taxes to go through the US-controlled Foreign Government Deposit Fund.

The other license allows companies around the world to enter contracts with state oil company PDVSA for new investments in Venezuelan oil and gas. The contracts are contingent on separate permits from OFAC.

The authorization does not allow transactions with companies in Russia, Iran, or China or entities owned or controlled ⁠by joint ventures with people in those countries.

The move ‌was the biggest relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela ‌since US forces captured and removed President Nicolas Maduro last month.

The US has had ‌sanctions on Venezuela since 2019 when President Donald Trump imposed them during his ‌first administration.

Trump is now seeking $100 billion in investments by energy companies in Venezuela's oil and gas sector. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Thursday, during his second day of a trip to Venezuela, that oil sales from the country since Maduro's capture have hit $1 ‌billion and would hit another $5 billion in months.

Wright said the US will control the proceeds from the sales until Venezuela ⁠stands up ⁠a "representative government."

Since last month, the Treasury issued several other general licenses to facilitate oil exports, storage, imports and sales from Venezuela. It also authorized the provision of US goods, technology, software or services for the exploration, development or production of oil and gas in Venezuela.

The Venezuelan government seized assets of Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips in 2007 under then-President Hugo Chavez. The Trump administration is trying to get those companies to invest in Venezuela as well. At a meeting at the White House with Trump last month, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said Venezuela was "uninvestable" at the moment.

Wright said on Thursday that Exxon, which no longer has an office in Venezuela, is in talks with the government there and gathering data about the oil sector. Exxon did not immediately comment.

Business

Saudi Energy Minister, China’s NDRC Chairman Co-chair Fifth Belt and Road, Major Projects and Energy Subcommittee Meeting

Discussions covered cooperation across the energy, investment and industry - SPA
Discussions covered cooperation across the energy, investment and industry - SPA
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Saudi Energy Minister, China’s NDRC Chairman Co-chair Fifth Belt and Road, Major Projects and Energy Subcommittee Meeting

Discussions covered cooperation across the energy, investment and industry - SPA
Discussions covered cooperation across the energy, investment and industry - SPA

The fifth meeting of the Belt and Road, Major Projects and Energy Subcommittee of the Saudi–Chinese High-Level Joint Committee convened via videoconference under the co-chairmanship of Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz and Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of the People’s Republic of China Zheng Shanjie.

The meeting reaffirms both sides’ commitment to further advancing the strategic partnership between the two countries. The two sides reviewed progress in bilateral relations and discussed ways to strengthen cooperation in priority sectors, SPA reported.

They also highlighted opportunities under Saudi Vision 2030 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative to expand cooperation and achieve mutual benefits.

Discussions covered cooperation across the energy, investment, industry, minerals, space, water, transport, and major projects sectors.
The two sides agreed to continue coordination on topics of mutual interest, enhance alignment of development strategies and concrete cooperation, and identify priorities for future cooperation.

The subcommittee serves as a key bilateral mechanism for advancing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China and supporting projects and initiatives of mutual interest aligned with Saudi Vision 2030 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Business

Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 15.5%, Signals More Cuts to Come

People walk along the Zaryadye Floating Bridge on a cold winter day, with the Kremlin in the background, in Moscow, Russia February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
People walk along the Zaryadye Floating Bridge on a cold winter day, with the Kremlin in the background, in Moscow, Russia February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
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Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 15.5%, Signals More Cuts to Come

People walk along the Zaryadye Floating Bridge on a cold winter day, with the Kremlin in the background, in Moscow, Russia February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
People walk along the Zaryadye Floating Bridge on a cold winter day, with the Kremlin in the background, in Moscow, Russia February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova

Russia's central bank cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% on Friday and signaled that rates could fall further in a bid to shore up the slowing wartime economy, which is struggling with high borrowing costs.

Of ‌the 24 ‌analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of ‌the decision, ⁠just eight out ⁠of 24 had predicted a 50-basis-point cut.

"The Bank of Russia will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations," the bank said.

"The baseline scenario assumes the average key ⁠rate to be in the range from ‌13.5% to 14.5% per annum ‌in 2026," it said.

Russia's economy, which showed significant resilience ‌to Western sanctions over the course of the first ‌three years of the conflict in Ukraine, slowed down sharply last year after the central bank hiked the key rate to fight inflation.

Russia's government forecasts growth of 1.3% this year, after 1.0% ‌in 2025. The central bank sees growth at 0.5-1.5% this year.

The central bank forecast ⁠annual inflation ⁠would decline to 4.5–5.5% in 2026, but cautioned about the rise in prices in January.

Prices have risen by 2.1% since the start of the year, reaching 6.5% on an annual basis, as a result of an increase in value-added tax (VAT), which the government introduced to ensure that the budget was balanced.

"Higher VAT and excise taxes, the indexation of administered prices and tariffs, and price adjustments for fruit and vegetables led to a temporary but considerable acceleration of the current price growth in January," the bank said.