Azerbaijan-Iran; Tension That Should Not Turn Into a Bigger Problem

Military tanks are seen during an Iranian Army exercise in the northwestern parts of Iran, in this picture obtained on October 1, 2021 - REUTERS
Military tanks are seen during an Iranian Army exercise in the northwestern parts of Iran, in this picture obtained on October 1, 2021 - REUTERS
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Azerbaijan-Iran; Tension That Should Not Turn Into a Bigger Problem

Military tanks are seen during an Iranian Army exercise in the northwestern parts of Iran, in this picture obtained on October 1, 2021 - REUTERS
Military tanks are seen during an Iranian Army exercise in the northwestern parts of Iran, in this picture obtained on October 1, 2021 - REUTERS

Azerbaijan and Iran have deep historical, cultural relations. They share a border of about 760 kilometers. Since Azerbaijan gained its independence in 1991, ties between Baku and Tehran have been neighborly but at times difficult.

War in 1992 and the consequent Armenian occupation of its territories preoccupied Azerbaijan for almost 30 years. Occupation of the territories of a fellow Muslim country did not disturb Iran, which seemed to stand closer to Armenia. Iran’s stance throughout this period was not well received by Azerbaijan.

In the autumn of 2020 when large-scale fighting broke out, Azerbaijan inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Armenian side and took back the majority of its territories. Iran remained silent. Only towards the end of the conflict, it took a more visible stance, stating that the territories over which fighting was taking place belonged to Azerbaijan.

This war brought to the surface, once again, several issues of irritation for Iran.

-Victory of Azerbaijan over Armenia was overjoyed by ethnic Azeris in Iran. They demonstrated their support in city centers. They also staged protests demanding the closure of the Iran-Armenia borders.

Estimates of Azeris in Iran vary from 15 to 25 million, out of a total population of around 85 million. They mostly live in northwestern parts, with Tabriz and Urumiya being major Azeri cities. Some refer to this area not as north of Iran but south of Azerbaijan. Within this scope, the rise of nationalist sentiment among its Azeri population did not appeal to Iranian authorities.

-Turkey’s contribution to Azerbaijan’s war effort was a major factor in its victory. Very close ties between the two Turkic countries, which are popularly referred to as “one nation, two states”, were even further consolidated.

Victory parades in Baku, with the participation of Turkish army units and the leaders of the two countries standing next to each other on the podium, must have been not so pleasant sights for Iran.

Another actor who also contributed to the Azerbaijan war effort was Israel. These two countries have developed close relations over the years. At one point in the past, President Aliyev stated that relations with Israel are very diverse and especially strong in the field of the defense industry. These ties have been disturbing Iran for some time.

On top of all that, the outcome of the war had a bearing on Iranian trade activities. Throughout the occupation of Karabakh, Iran used to transport food, fuel, and other items to Karabakh and Armenia and also to other parts of West Asia, unhindered and through occupied Azeri land.

This all changed when Azerbaijan took back its territories. Iran’s transport routes were affected. They wanted to continue as if nothing had changed. Azerbaijan reminded the Iranians of the new circumstances. Iranians did not pay attention and it is said that they even attempted to cheat their way by putting Armenian plates on Iranian trucks.

Azerbaijan, as a sovereign state, continued its controls and imposed a “road tax” on Iranian trucks moving through its territory. In the process, some Iranian lorry drivers were detained. There was a case of a heroin seizure. Azerbaijani authorities also expressed concern about the possible transport of military equipment.

Iran must have felt under pressure on a number of fronts, especially in its home territory and what it considers as its “backyard”. Iran revealed its dismay and demonstrated its readiness.
Foreign Minister Abdullahian stated Iran’s objection to the presence of the “Zionist regime” near its borders.

In reference to a Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan trilateral military exercise (Three Brothers 2021) which was held in September in Baku, Foreign Ministry of Iran stated that “these military exercises violated international conventions banning the military presence of countries other than the five states which border the Caspian Sea”.

In October, Iran started military exercises along its borders with Azerbaijan. The Iranian commander of Land Forces also voiced Iran’s stance against the “Zionist State” near its borders. In addition, he expressed concern about the presence of fighters (from Syria) that he claimed were brought in to Azerbaijan during the fighting over Karabakh.

Azerbaijan reacted in a cool manner. In an interview with Turkey's Anadolu Agency, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his surprise about Iran’s reactions and steps.

Other major regional actors, Turkey and Russia, have kept silent. They are observing and probably expecting the flare-up to die out.

It seems that things are blown out of proportion and we may be following a case of being lost in translation.

In the case of the transport issue, it is a matter of adapting to changed circumstances and respecting the decisions of a sovereign state. Iran’s perceptions of threat on home ground and vicinities may be more complicated but again, diplomacy, goodwill, and cooperation are the remedies.

These recent developments have once again served as a reminder of the relevance and importance of regional cooperation.

Up until recently, Karabakh was an obstacle for most multinational cooperation efforts in the region. Now, this obstacle has been removed and the political environment is ripe for this kind of cooperation.
For many years, Turkey has been desirous to create regional cooperation platforms.

One such mechanism, Turkey-Iran-Azerbaijan Trilateral Meetings at the level of Foreign Ministers was established in 2010. Even though dates have not been set yet, the next meeting will be in Tehran. It would be a good opportunity to take up issues of contention.

Recently, Turkey came up with the idea of a six-party cooperation format, which included Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran. There is no progress on that yet, but the proposal has been made.

In any case, such inclusive and cooperation-oriented initiatives should be encouraged as they offer countries a good opportunity to exchange views on bilateral and regional issues and explore possibilities of cooperation in various fields. Regional mechanisms could also complement and support bilateral efforts to overcome problems as in the case of the recent Azeri-Iranian situation.



Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
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Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)

As Rwanda-backed rebels strolled through the streets of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's second-largest city, President Felix Tshisekedi's office claimed it was actually still controlled by his army and "valiant" allied forces.

It was the latest jarring move from the 61-year-old leader that has fueled a sense of worry and panic 1,600 km (1,000 miles) away in the capital Kinshasa, where some residents are looking to move their families abroad amid open talk of a coup.

"There was never any question of fighting in Bukavu. It was clear to all the people on the ground that the Rwandans and their auxiliaries were going to make their entry," said one army general who expressed bafflement at a statement issued by the president's office on Sunday.

Tshisekedi, he added, "doesn't have the right sources."

Anxiety is visible on the streets of Kinshasa as the army puts up limited resistance against the M23 group's advance and residents question whether Tshisekedi grasps the risk it poses.

Embassies have begun using armored vehicles for trips to the airport and sending some staff across the Congo River to Brazzaville, capital of Republic of Congo.

Three Kinshasa-based government officials told Reuters they were making arrangements to get their families out of the country.

Banker Matondo Arnold said he had already sent his family to Brazzaville after the rebels seized Goma, eastern Congo's biggest city, in late January. "We never imagined Goma could fall," he said.

As talk about a possible coup spread, Justice Minister Constant Mutamba said on X that Congolese "will not accept any coup that involves the Rwandan army to destabilize the country's institutions."

But even a member of Tshisekedi's Sacred Union coalition said the anxiety was unmistakable.

"Oh yes, it's panic. Some people are desperate and they are courting embassies" in search of an exit.

SUMMIT SNUB

This M23 advance is the gravest escalation in more than a decade of the long-running conflict in eastern Congo, rooted in the spillover of Rwanda's 1994 genocide into Congo and the struggle for control of Congo's vast minerals resources.

Rwanda rejects allegations from Congo, the United Nations and Western powers that it supports M23 with arms and troops. It says it is defending itself against the threat from a Hutu militia, which it says is fighting with the Congolese military.

As the hunt for a diplomatic resolution stalls, with Tshisekedi refusing to negotiate with the rebels, his camp faults the international community for failing to stand up to Rwanda by imposing sanctions.

"It's not a bad thing to refuse dialogue with an armed group like M23. The M23 is Rwanda," said a lawmaker close to the president. "Why doesn't the West do anything?"

Tshisekedi has skipped two African-organized meetings this month addressing the fighting - a joint summit in Dar es Salaam of Southern and Eastern African leaders and the annual African Union summit in Addis Ababa.

Instead, he travelled to the Munich Security Conference where he accused his predecessor Joseph Kabila of sponsoring M23's military campaign, which Kabila's camp denied.

The decision by Tshisekedi, who spent much of his life in Brussels, to fly to Europe drew derision from the Congolese political establishment.

"The fact that an African president snubs the African Union summit and prefers instead a security conference in Europe is indicative of who sustains him," said one former senior official.

Some members of Congo's fractious opposition are openly predicting Tshisekedi will not last.

"His lack of legitimacy is now proven, making him less and less listened to and more and more rejected by the population every day," said Olivier Kamitatu, a Kabila-era minister and spokesperson for opposition politician Moise Katumbi.

"Tshisekedi did not understand the issues of the country and the region. He did not have enough intellectual heft to lead Congo," said Martin Fayulu, who came in second in the 2018 election that brought Tshisekedi to power.

But it is unclear who could pose the most legitimate challenge to Tshisekedi, said Congolese analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liege in Belgium.

"With the capture of Goma and Bukavu, no one is sure of Tshisekedi's ability to control the security and political situation," he said.