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Russia Upset with Damascus’ Decision to ‘Fail’ Constitutional Committee Talks

Russia’s special envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev attends a meeting during consultations on Syria at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on September 11, 2018. (Reuters)
Russia’s special envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev attends a meeting during consultations on Syria at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on September 11, 2018. (Reuters)
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Russia Upset with Damascus’ Decision to ‘Fail’ Constitutional Committee Talks

Russia’s special envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev attends a meeting during consultations on Syria at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on September 11, 2018. (Reuters)
Russia’s special envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev attends a meeting during consultations on Syria at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on September 11, 2018. (Reuters)

In contrast to previous rounds of the Syria Constitutional Committee talks in Geneva, the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, avoided blaming the Syrian opposition for the meetings failing to kickstart the drafting of a new constitution for the war-torn country.

The Syrian government “failed” the recent round of talks on purpose, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may no longer be in total control of the situation, Russian sources revealed.

More so, they said that Lavrentiev’s new approach of steering blame away from the opposition signaled a severe warning against irreversibly damaging the talks in Geneva.

Moscow did not issue a statement after the end of the recent round of talks and avoided giving an official assessment about the party responsible for their failure, paving the way for the opposition and West to accuse Damascus.

“It is difficult to blame the failure of the round of talks on the Damascus bombing, especially in light of the great efforts made by Moscow to make this round a success,” Russian diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Bombs had hit a military bus in the city center of Damascus on Wednesday, killing 14 government soldiers.

Sources spoke of “widespread disappointment in Moscow, which had bet for a long time on the success of this round and sent the special presidential envoy to Damascus just before it to urge Assad to show the greatest possible flexibility.”

“The regime is responsible for the bombing that took place in Damascus,” said Rami al-Shaar, an advisor close to decision-making circles in the Syria file.

Al-Shaar blamed Damascus for not assuming the needed responsibility for the return of state institutions to their regular work and for intentionally aborting the sixth round of Constitutional Committee talks in Geneva.

“It became known to all parties, including the UN, that some members of the Syrian government delegation received instructions from Damascus not to agree to anything and to prevent any progress in the work of the Committee’s small body,” said al-Shaar.

The Constitutional Committee has a large and a small body: The large body comprises 150 members: 50 members of the government, 50 of the opposition, and 50 of civil society. The small body includes 45 members: 15 members for each party.

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Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
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Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)

Israel is considering options to respond to repeated attacks fired from Yemen in the past few days, the latest of which was a Houthi missile strike that injured more than a dozen people in Tel Aviv.
But military experts say Israel should first consider an intelligence plan for confronting the new front after it faced significant difficulties in both defending against and responding to the Houthi attacks.
On Saturday morning, Houthis launched a missile that triggered sirens throughout central Israel at 3:44 am. It was the second attack since Thursday.
Israel's military said the projectile landed in Tel Aviv's southern Jaffa area, adding that attempts to intercept a missile from Yemen failed.
“The incident is still being thoroughly investigated,” the army said, adding that following initial investigations by the Israeli Air Force and Home Front Command, “some of the conclusions have already been implemented, both regarding interception and early warning.”
Israeli military experts say the recent Houthi attacks have revealed serious security gaps in Israel's air defense systems.
“The pressing question now is why none of the other of Israel’s air defense layers managed to intercept the warhead,” wrote Yedioth Ahronoth's Ron Ben-Yishai. “The likely explanation is the late detection and the flat trajectory, which prevented the operation of all available defense apparatus.”
He said these incidents might expose a critical vulnerability in the army’s air defense system protecting Israel’s civilian and military home front.
According to Ben-Yishai, two main reasons might explain Saturday’s interception failure.
The first is that the missile was launched in a “flattened” ballistic trajectory, possibly from an unexpected direction.
As a result, Israeli defenses may not have identified it in time, leading to its late discovery and insufficient time for interceptors to operate.
He said the second, and more likely scenario is that Iran has developed a maneuverable warhead.
Such a warhead separates from the missile during the final third of its trajectory and maneuvers mid-flight—executing pre-programmed course changes—to hit its designated target, he wrote.
And while Israel has launched initial investigations into the failure of Israeli defense systems to intercept the missiles, it is now examining the nature, date and location of its response.
When Houthis launched their first missile attack on Israel last Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned them, saying, “The Houthis will learn the hard way.”
But Israeli political analyst Avi Ashkenazi wrote in the Maariv newspaper that Israel should look at reality with open eyes and say out loud that it cannot deal with the Houthi threat from Yemen, and has failed to face them.
Last Thursday, 14 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, alongside refuelers and spy planes, flew some 2,000 kilometers and dropped over 60 munitions on Houthi “military targets” along Yemen’s western coast and near the capital Sanaa.
The targets included fuel and oil depots, two power stations, and eight tugboats used at the Houthi-controlled ports.
But the Maariv newspaper warned about the increasing involvement of Iran in supporting the Houthi forces.
“Iran has invested more in the Houthis in recent weeks following the collapse of the Shiite axis, making the Houthi movement a leader of this axis,” the newspaper noted.
Underscoring the failures of Israel’s air defense systems, Maariv said the “Arrow” missile defense system, Israel's main line of defense against ballistic missiles, had failed four times in a row to intercept missiles, including three launched from Yemen and one from Lebanon.
Yedioth Ahronoth's Ben-Yishai also warned that the threat posed by maneuvering warheads on Iran's heavy, long-range missiles would become existential for Israel should Iran succeed in developing nuclear warheads for these missiles.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 said that in recent months, the Middle East has changed beyond recognition.
The channel said that for the first time in more than half a century, a direct and threat-free air corridor has been opened to Iran through the Middle East. Israel will benefit from this corridor to launch almost daily attacks on the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, it said.
Channel 12 also reported that according to the Israeli military, the new threat-free corridor will help Israel launch a future attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
“From Israel's perspective, the fall of the Assad regime and the collapse of the Iranian ring of fire are changing the balance of power in the Middle East,” the report added.