Turkish Lira Pares Losses after Touching All-Time Low Near 11 to the Dollar

A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Pares Losses after Touching All-Time Low Near 11 to the Dollar

A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)

Turkey's lira sank to an all-time low of near 11 to the dollar on Thursday before paring losses, ahead of a central bank meeting that is expected to cut rates further even as the currency falls sharply and inflation remains near 20%.

The lira stood 10.85 against the dollar at 0408 GMT, after earlier declining as much as 10.98, bringing its losses since Tuesday's close to more than 5.7%, Reuters reported.

The currency's decline in recent weeks over concerns of further easing from the central bank were exacerbated on Wednesday by President Tayyip Erdogan's comments that he will continue his battle against interest rate "to the end".

Erdogan's insistence on cutting rates and his frequent overhauls of the central bank's leadership, partly over policy disagreements, have severely damaged the central bank's ncredibility over the years, battering the lira.

The central bank, which says price pressures are temporary, began giving dovish messages in September and embarked on an easing cycle later that month. It has since slashed its policy rate by 300 basis points to 16%.

The aggressive easing bucked expectations and left Turkey virtually alone in a world of policy tightening. But it delivered stimulus long sought by Erdogan.

"Even a hold (or a rate hike) may only provide short-term relief for the currency as much will then depend on the president's reaction and whether he decides to part ways with another central bank governor," said Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

The lira is down more than 32% against the dollar this year and its decline pushes prices higher in Turkey via imports.



World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
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World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

The World Bank on Thursday warned that US across-the-board tariffs of 10% could reduce already lackluster global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 by 0.3 percentage point if America's trading partners retaliate with tariffs of their own.
Such tariffs, promised by US President-elect Donald Trump, could cut US growth - forecast to reach 2.3% in 2025 - by 0.9% if retaliatory measures are imposed, the bank said, citing economic simulations. But it noted that US growth could also increase by 0.4 percentage point in 2026 if US tax cuts were extended, it said, with only small global spillovers.
Trump, who takes office Monday, has proposed a 10% tariff on global imports, a 25% punitive duty on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing borders into the US, and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report, issued twice yearly, forecast flat global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, the same as in 2024, and warned that developing economies now faced their weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, Reuters said.
The multilateral development bank said foreign direct investment into developing economies was now about half the level seen in the early 2000s and global trade restrictions were five times higher than the 2010-2019 average.
It said growth in developing countries is expected to reach 4% in 2025 and 2026, well below pre-pandemic estimates due to high debt burdens, weak investment and sluggish productivity growth, along with rising costs of climate change.
Overall output in emerging markets and development economies was expected to remain more than 5% below its pre-pandemic trend by 2026, due to the pandemic and subsequent shocks, it said.
"The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25," World Bank chief economist Indermit Gil said in a statement, urging countries to adopt domestic reforms to encourage investment and deepen trade relations.
Economic growth in developing countries dropped from nearly 6% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s and was averaging about 3.5% in the 2020s, the bank said.
It said the gap between rich and poor countries was also widening, with average per capita growth rates in developing countries, excluding China and India, averaging half a percentage point below those in wealth economies since 2014.
The somber outlook echoed comments made last week by the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, ahead of the global lender's own new forecast, to be released on Friday.
"Over the next two years, developing economies could face serious headwinds," the World Bank report said.
"High global policy uncertainty could undercut investor confidence and constrain financing flows. Rising trade tensions could reduce global growth. Persistent inflation could delay expected cuts in interest rates."
The World Bank said it saw more downside risks for the global economy, citing a surge in trade-distorting measures implemented mainly by advanced economies and uncertainty about future policies that was dampening investment and growth.
Global trade in goods and services, which expanded by 2.7% in 2024, is expected to reach an average of about 3.1% in 2025-2026, but to remain below pre-pandemic averages.