Global markets moved sharply on Friday after Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, prompting investors to rapidly reassess geopolitical supply risks.
Iran’s foreign minister said the strait was fully open to all commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire, in a move that coincided with a truce in Lebanon.
Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that vessel transit through the strait would follow the coordinated route previously announced by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.
The announcement partly eased concerns over global energy supplies and quickly fed through to markets, with oil prices falling sharply after the remarks.
Oil prices tumble
Oil prices fell more than 10% on Friday, extending earlier losses. Brent crude futures dropped $11.12, or 11.2%, to $88.27 a barrel at 1311 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $11.40, or 12%, to $83.29 a barrel.
"Comments from Iran's foreign minister indicate a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire is in place, now we need to see if the number of tankers crossing the Strait increases substantially," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
The decline reflects a temporary easing of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices in recent weeks, as investors watch whether the ceasefire could broaden into a wider regional de-escalation.
Dollar slips
The US dollar index fell after Iran’s announcement, down 0.46% at 97.765. The dollar slipped 0.6% to 158 yen, while the euro rose 0.6% to $1.1848, its highest level in two months.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart, while Canadian government bond yields fell.
The loonie rose 0.3% to C$1.366 per US dollar, or 73.21 US cents, after trading between 1.3661 and 1.3707 during the session.
Global equities extend gains
Global equities, already trading at record levels, added to gains after the announcement.
The STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.4%, while futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.9%.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said improved prospects for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz clearly reduce the geopolitical risk premium, supporting risk appetite.
He added that this shift explains the positive market reaction.
Bond markets cautious
In bond markets, yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes were steady at 4.27%, while two-year yields stood at 3.74%, signaling a cautious balance in monetary policy expectations.
Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell 8.3 basis points to 3.421%.
In Europe, German two-year government bond yields hit their lowest in a month.
Yields on the two-year Schatz - highly sensitive to interest rates and inflation - fell as much as 11.2 basis points to 2.412% before trimming losses to 2.43%, down about 9.6 basis points on the day. Yields had reached their highest since last July in late March at around 2.77%.
Markets also pared bets on further rate hikes by the European Central Bank, pricing in about an 8% chance of a hike at the next meeting, down from 15% earlier in the session.
The deposit rate is now seen at 2.44% by year-end, versus 2.55% previously.
Precious metals rise
In precious metals markets, spot gold rose about 2% to $4,881 an ounce. Silver jumped more than 5% to $82.30 and platinum gained 3% to $2,149.15, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets despite lower oil prices.
