Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Somaliland Denies It Will Host Palestinians, Israeli Base

This picture taken on November 7, 2024 shows a general view of the city of Hargeisa, capital and largest city of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. (AFP)
This picture taken on November 7, 2024 shows a general view of the city of Hargeisa, capital and largest city of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. (AFP)
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Somaliland Denies It Will Host Palestinians, Israeli Base

This picture taken on November 7, 2024 shows a general view of the city of Hargeisa, capital and largest city of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. (AFP)
This picture taken on November 7, 2024 shows a general view of the city of Hargeisa, capital and largest city of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. (AFP)

The breakaway region of Somaliland on Thursday denied allegations by the Somali president that it would take resettled Palestinians or host an Israeli military base in exchange for Israel recognizing its independence.

Israel last week became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an "independent and sovereign state", triggering protests across Somalia.

On Wednesday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, citing intelligence reports, told Al Jazeera that Somaliland had accepted three conditions from Israel: the resettlement of Palestinians, the establishment of a military base on the Gulf of Aden, and joining the Abraham Accords to normalize ties with Israel.

Somaliland's foreign ministry denied the first two conditions.

"The Government of the Republic of Somaliland firmly rejects false claims made by the President of Somalia alleging the resettlement of Palestinians or the establishment of military bases in Somaliland," it said in a statement on X.

It said the deal was "purely diplomatic".

"These baseless allegations are intended to mislead the international community and undermine Somaliland's diplomatic progress," it added.

But analysts say an alliance with Somaliland is especially useful to Israel for its strategic position on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, close to the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen, who have struck Israel repeatedly since the start of the Gaza war.

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence in 1991 and has enjoyed far more peace than the rest of conflict-hit Somalia, establishing its own elections, currency and army.

Its location alongside one of the world's busiest shipping lanes has made it a key partner for foreign countries.


Flash Floods Triggered by Heavy Rains in Afghanistan Kill at Least 17 People

Smog is seen over Kabul, Afghanistan, 31 December 2025. (EPA)
Smog is seen over Kabul, Afghanistan, 31 December 2025. (EPA)
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Flash Floods Triggered by Heavy Rains in Afghanistan Kill at Least 17 People

Smog is seen over Kabul, Afghanistan, 31 December 2025. (EPA)
Smog is seen over Kabul, Afghanistan, 31 December 2025. (EPA)

The season’s first heavy rains and snowfall ended a prolonged dry spell but triggered flash floods in several areas of Afghanistan, killing at least 17 people and injuring 11 others, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s national disaster management authority said Thursday.

The dead included five members of a family in a property where the roof collapsed on Thursday in Kabkan, a district in the Herat province, according to Mohammad Yousaf Saeedi, spokesman for the Herat governor. Two of the victims were children.

Most of the casualties have occurred since Monday in districts hit by flooding, and the severe weather also disrupted daily life across central, northern, southern, and western regions, according to Mohammad Yousaf Hammad, a spokesman for Afghanistan's National Disaster Management Authority.

Hammad said the floods also damaged infrastructure in the affected districts, killed livestock, and affected 1,800 families, worsening conditions in already vulnerable urban and rural communities.

Hammad said the agency has sent assessment teams to the worst-affected areas, with surveys ongoing to determine further needs.

Afghanistan, like neighboring Pakistan and India, is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly flash floods following seasonal rains.

Decades of conflict, poor infrastructure, deforestation, and the intensifying effects of climate change have amplified the impact of such disasters, especially in remote areas where many homes are made of mud and offer limited protection against sudden deluges.

The United Nations and other aid agencies this week warned that Afghanistan is expected to remain one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises in 2026. The UN and its humanitarian partners launched a $1.7 billion appeal on Tuesday to assist nearly 18 million people in urgent need in the country.


Thousands Stage Pro-Gaza Rally in Istanbul

Demonstrators gather on the Galata Bridge holding Palestinian and Turkish flags during a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)
Demonstrators gather on the Galata Bridge holding Palestinian and Turkish flags during a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)
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Thousands Stage Pro-Gaza Rally in Istanbul

Demonstrators gather on the Galata Bridge holding Palestinian and Turkish flags during a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)
Demonstrators gather on the Galata Bridge holding Palestinian and Turkish flags during a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

Thousands joined a New Year's Day rally for Gaza in Istanbul Thursday, waving Palestinian and Turkish flags and calling for an end to the violence in the tiny war-torn territory.

Demonstrators gathered in freezing temperatures under cloudless blue skies to march to the city's Galata Bridge for a rally under the slogan: "We won't remain silent, we won't forget Palestine," an AFP reporter at the scene said.

More than 400 civil society organizations were present at the rally, one of whose organizers was Bilal Erdogan, the youngest son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Police sources and Anadolou state news agency said some 500,000 people had joined the march at which there were speeches and a performance by Lebanese-born singer Maher Zain of his song "Free Palestine".

"We are praying that 2026 will bring goodness for our entire nation and for the oppressed Palestinians," said Erdogan, who chairs the board of the Ilim Yayma Foundation, an educational charity that was one of the organizers of the march.

Türkiye has been one of the most vocal critics of the war in Gaza and helped broker a recent ceasefire that halted the deadly war waged by Israel in response to Hamas' unprecedented attack on October 7, 2023.

But the fragile October 10 ceasefire has not stopped the violence with more than more than 400 Palestinians killed since it took hold.