Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Pope Leo Summons World's Cardinals for Key Assembly to Help him Govern the Church

A handout picture provided by the Vatican Media shows Pope Leo XIV presiding over the Jubilee Audience in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, 20 December 2025.  EPA/VATICAN MEDIA HANDOUT
A handout picture provided by the Vatican Media shows Pope Leo XIV presiding over the Jubilee Audience in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, 20 December 2025. EPA/VATICAN MEDIA HANDOUT
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Pope Leo Summons World's Cardinals for Key Assembly to Help him Govern the Church

A handout picture provided by the Vatican Media shows Pope Leo XIV presiding over the Jubilee Audience in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, 20 December 2025.  EPA/VATICAN MEDIA HANDOUT
A handout picture provided by the Vatican Media shows Pope Leo XIV presiding over the Jubilee Audience in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, 20 December 2025. EPA/VATICAN MEDIA HANDOUT

Pope Leo XIV has summoned the world’s cardinals for two days of meetings to help him govern the church, the Vatican said Saturday, in the clearest sign yet that the new year will signal the unofficial start of his pontificate.

The consistory, as such gatherings are called, will be held Jan. 7-8, immediately following the Jan. 6 conclusion of the 2025 Holy Year, a once-every-quarter century celebration of Christianity.

Leo’s first few months as pope have been dominated by fulfilling the weekly Holy Year obligations of meeting with pilgrimage groups and celebrating special Jubilee audiences and Masses. Additionally, much of his time has been spent wrapping up the outstanding matters of Pope Francis' pontificate.

As a result, the January consistory in many ways will mark the first time that Leo can look ahead to his own agenda following his May 8 election as the first American pope. It is significant that he has summoned all the world’s cardinals to Rome, The Associated Press reported.

Francis had largely eschewed the consistory tradition as a means of governance. He had instead relied on a small group of eight or nine hand-picked cardinal advisers to help him govern and make key decisions.

The Vatican said Saturday that Leo’s first consistory “will be oriented toward fostering common discernment and offering support and advice to the Holy Father in the exercise of his high and grave responsibility in the government of the universal Church.”

Other types of consistories include the formal installation of new cardinals. But no new cardinals will be made at this meeting, which is purely consultative.


Iran, UK Foreign Ministers in Rare Direct Contact

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gestures during a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at Zinaida Morozova's Mansion in Moscow, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. (Ramil Sitdikov/Pool Photo via AP)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gestures during a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at Zinaida Morozova's Mansion in Moscow, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. (Ramil Sitdikov/Pool Photo via AP)
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Iran, UK Foreign Ministers in Rare Direct Contact

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gestures during a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at Zinaida Morozova's Mansion in Moscow, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. (Ramil Sitdikov/Pool Photo via AP)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gestures during a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at Zinaida Morozova's Mansion in Moscow, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. (Ramil Sitdikov/Pool Photo via AP)

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has spoken by phone with his British counterpart Yvette Cooper, an Iranian foreign ministry statement said on Saturday, in a rare case of direct contact between the two countries.

The ministry said that in Friday's call the ministers "stressed the need to continue consultations at various levels to strengthen mutual understanding and pursue issues of mutual interest."

According to AFP, a UK government source said Cooper "emphasized the need for a diplomatic solution on Iran's nuclear program and raised a number of other issues."

The source in London said Cooper raised the case of Lindsay and Craig Foreman, a British couple detained in Iran for nearly a year on suspicion of espionage.

The Iranian ministry statement did not mention the case of the two Britons.

It said Araghchi criticized "the irresponsible approach of the three European countries towards the Iranian nuclear issue", referring to Britain, France and Germany.

The three countries at the end of September initiated the reinstatement of UN sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program.

The Foremans, both in their early fifties, were seized in January as they passed through Kerman, in central Iran, while on a round-the-world motorbike trip.

Iran accuses the couple of entering the country pretending to be tourists so as to gather information for foreign intelligence services, an allegation the couple's family rejects.

Before Friday's call, the last exchange between the two ministers was in October.


Netanyahu Plans to Brief Trump on Possible New Iran Strikes, NBC News Reports

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the plenum of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, November 10, 2025. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/File Photo
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the plenum of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, November 10, 2025. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/File Photo
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Netanyahu Plans to Brief Trump on Possible New Iran Strikes, NBC News Reports

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the plenum of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, November 10, 2025. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/File Photo
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the plenum of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, November 10, 2025. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/File Photo

US President Donald Trump is ​set to be briefed by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that any expansion ‌of ‌Iran's ‌ballistic ⁠missile ​program ‌poses a threat that could necessitate swift action, NBC News reported on Saturday.

Israeli ⁠officials are ‌concerned that Iran ‍is ‍reconstituting nuclear enrichment ‍sites the US bombed in June, and ​are preparing to brief Trump for options ⁠on attacking the missile program again, the NBC report added.

Reuters could not verify the report.

New satellite imagery shows recent activity at the Natanz nuclear facility that was damaged during June's 12-day war with Israel, according to the US-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).

During the June conflict, the IAEA confirmed Israeli strikes hit Iran's Natanz underground enrichment plant.

The think tank said the satellite imagery from December 13 show panels placed on top of the remaining anti-drone structure at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), providing cover for the damaged facility.

It suggested the new covering allows Iran to examine or retrieve materials from the rubble while limiting external observation.

The Natanz uranium enrichment facility, located some 250 km south of the Iranian capital Tehran, is one of Iran's most important and most controversial nuclear facilities in the Middle East.