Iran's nuclear program had advanced too far to re-create the roughly 12-month so-called "breakout period" of the 2015 pact, US officials warned.
US officials said Iran is capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement.
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed officials, that Iran's "breakout period," which is the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon, had advanced significantly after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018.
"The breakout time is different from how long it would take Iran to attain a nuclear weapon because, according to Western officials, Iran is believed not to have mastered all the skills to build the core of a bomb and attach a warhead to a missile."
Time is running out
The newspaper report said that the Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement.
Administration officials concluded in 2021 that Iran's "nuclear program had advanced too far to re-create the roughly 12-month so-called breakout period of the 2015 pact."
A revised deal
The officials told the newspaper that a revised deal needs to be reached soon to give the US and its allies enough time to respond to an Iranian nuclear buildup.
It added that the "breakout period" will depend on the precise steps Iran agrees to take to dismantle, ship abroad, destroy or place under seal its stockpile of enriched uranium, machines for producing nuclear fuel, and centrifuge manufacturing capacity.
Reducing the breakout time raises doubts about the Biden administration's ability to negotiate what US officials have called a "longer, stronger deal that would further restrain Iran's pathway to nuclear weapons."
The officials said Washington would lift the bulk of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration if Iran rejoins the deal.
"There are ongoing negotiations in Vienna about what assurances Washington will provide to help Iran enjoy the economic benefits of a restored deal."
A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on the details of Washington's breakout assessments, saying the administration is confident a deal "would address our urgent nonproliferation concerns."
Senior VP for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), Jonathan Schanzer, said that Israel remains very keen to maintain a professional relationship with the United States, despite the dispute over Iran.
In an e-mail to Asharq Al-Awsat, Schanzer said that the two sides continue to explore "alternative options" if negotiations fail, despite the insistence of the US administration to reach such an agreement with Tehran.
The expert believes that alternative options remain part of the US-Israeli long-term engagement strategy.
Schanzer believes that the US team's exit from the negotiations was an indication to Israel that Washington's strategy in the negotiations may collapse, which would provide an opportunity to discuss "alternatives."
Direct talks
AFP quoted a senior US official, who declined to be identified, as saying that time was running out for nuclear negotiations with Iran and urged Tehran to agree to direct talks to help forge a deal.
The official said that Iran's nuclear program was nearing "breakout" toward nuclear weapons capability, leaving just "weeks" to reach a deal that would put the program on hold and ease sanctions on the country.
"I think we're at the point where some of the most critical political decisions have to be made by all sides" in the talks to revive the 2015 deal, the official said.
McKenzie accusations
Meanwhile, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, Frank McKenzie, said that the Iranian regime "relies on proxies to do its dirty work" in the region.
McKenzie's statements come amid attempts of the Biden administration to maintain a space for different assessments about the relationship with Iran and its attempt to please its allies by raising warnings about Tehran's regional behavior.
Tehran's destabilizing regional policies and its ballistic missile were excluded from the ongoing negotiations in Vienna to return to the nuclear agreement.
It is now evident that the Biden administration seeks to placate its allies and partners by repeating criticism of Tehran's policies, while negotiations continue in Vienna despite warnings that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb.
Israel, for its part, is urging Washington to seriously prepare for "other options" in the event of the failure of negotiations with Tehran.
In a virtual seminar with the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington, McKenzie said that these operations endanger human lives by "funneling arms and other resources" to the militias, especially since the new commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ismail Qaani, does not exercise the same degree of control over Iranian-aligned groups that Solemani enjoyed.
"Tehran is well aware of our red lines, yet the evidence is also clear that many of these militia groups are trying in earnest to kill Americans with these attacks."
Red lines
McKenzie stressed that the continuation of the war in Yemen for more than seven years is mainly due to Iran's support for the Houthi militia.
Referring to the recent Houthi attacks on the UAE, McKenzie said that the "Houthis are less interested than Iran in waging a limited war. Rather, they will recklessly use whatever capabilities the Iranians put in their hands in the pursuit of victory, regardless of the risk to human lives."
He also accused them of using the population of the southern Arabian Peninsula as human lab rats in the Yemeni civil war, describing it as "an inhuman experiment in the modern war."
