Ukraine Fears Weigh on Markets But 'Chance' of Deal Provides Hope

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to find a diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine (AFP/Sergei SUPINSKY)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to find a diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine (AFP/Sergei SUPINSKY)
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Ukraine Fears Weigh on Markets But 'Chance' of Deal Provides Hope

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to find a diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine (AFP/Sergei SUPINSKY)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to find a diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine (AFP/Sergei SUPINSKY)

Asian markets mostly fell again Tuesday, extending a global sell-off fueled by fears that Russia is about to invade Ukraine, though the losses were more muted than the previous day and oil dipped after Moscow said a diplomatic agreement was still possible.

The crisis in Eastern Europe added to long-running unease about the Federal Reserve's plans to hike interest rates as it battles to rein in 40-year-high inflation with one top official saying the bank needed to act quickly to maintain its credibility, AFP reported.

Equities were sent spinning after US national security advisor Jake Sullivan warned last week that Russia could storm into Ukraine "any day now", having amassed more than 100,000 troops on its border in recent weeks.

Western powers have drawn up a series of tough sanctions against Moscow in the event of an invasion but there is a big worry that such a move would have economic consequences owing to the fact that the two countries are key sources of vital commodities including oil, gas and wheat.

The price of each of them has soared in recent weeks.

However, while Washington continues to fret, there was a glimmer of hope that recent diplomatic efforts could pay off, with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov saying there was "always a chance" for agreement with the West.

In a televised meeting, he told President Vladimir Putin that talks with US and European leaders showed enough of an opening for progress on his goals, adding: "I would suggest continuing."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was due in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Putin.

The exchange between Putin and Lavrov improved the mood on markets slightly, helping Wall Street off its intra-day lows, though all three main indexes ended in negative territory for a second day.

Asia also struggled but fared a little better as the day progressed.

Tokyo dipped as investors brushed off data showing Japan's economy rebounded in the final three months of 2021.

Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila also slipped but Shanghai, Taipei and Jakarta edged up.

Oil prices dipped on the comments, though they remain at more than seven-year highs and within touching distance of $100 a barrel, having soared around 25 percent since the start of January.

The long-running saga over the Fed's plans for fighting inflation were also still on traders' minds, with the central bank expected to hike rates next month but speculation rife over how much it will move and how many more times after.

St Louis Fed President James Bullard said Monday officials needed to be decisive in its actions, telling CNBC "our credibility is on the line here".

He added that the bank should "front load" its actions and raise the benchmark borrowing rate to one percent by July, echoing similar remarks last week that caused a stir on trading floors.

But some commentators warned that with prices being fueled by factors such as surging energy costs and supply chain problems, the Fed hikes could have little effect.

"What we are seeing is a Fed that is reacting to inflationary prints even though many of the pressures on inflation are factors that the Fed really can't solve," Kristina Hooper, of Invesco, told Bloomberg Television.

"So that certainly increases the risks and reduces the clarity."

Still, with the global economy in recovery mode and most governments easing containment measures, observers remain upbeat about the outlook for markets.

"Times will certainly become somewhat rougher on the markets, as the first weeks of this year have already shown," said DWS chief investment officer Stefan Kreuzkamp.

"However, on a 12-month horizon, we stay with our positive assessment of equities," he added.

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 27,006.66 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 24,529.44

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,441.42

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $95.12 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $96.22 per barrel

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1312 from $1.1305 late Monday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3538 from $1.3526

Euro/pound: UP at 83.56 pence from 83.54 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 115.43 yen from 115.55 yen

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 34,566.17 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.7 percent at 7,531.59 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.