Oil Breaks $100, Havens Rally, Equities Drop as Russia Enters Ukraine

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Breaks $100, Havens Rally, Equities Drop as Russia Enters Ukraine

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices broke past $100 and safe havens surged while equities tumbled Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "military operation" in Ukraine, accelerating fears of a major war.

Markets have been hammered this week after the Kremlin recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and said it would provide "peacekeepers" to the regions, leading to warnings of a conflagration, AFP said.

The Russian president said in a surprise statement on television: "I have made the decision of a military operation."

He also vowed retaliation against anyone who interfered and called on the Ukraine military to lay down its arms.

There were later reports of explosions in Kyiv as well as the eastern Ukrainian front.

Russia is said to have up to 200,000 soldiers massed on the border with Ukraine, and Washington has warned for weeks that Putin was planning an incursion.

Oil prices rocketed with Brent moving within spitting distance of the $100 not seen since September 2014, while gold and the Japanese yen -- safe havens in times of crisis and turmoil -- also jumped.

The dollar was up more than six percent against the ruble, which has been battered in recent weeks on worries about the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.

On equity markets, Hong Kong, Sydney, Mumbai and Seoul all fell more than three percent while Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei and Wellington dropped more than two percent. There were also big losses in Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta and Bangkok.

World leaders had been trying to work for a de-escalation but failed, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had tried to call Putin but there was "no answer, only silence".

He added that Russia could start "a major war in Europe" in the coming days.

US President Joe Biden deplored the Russian operation as an "unprovoked and unjustified" attack, adding that it would cause "catastrophic loss of life and human suffering".

Earlier, the United Nations was told a full-scale Russian invasion would have a devastating global impact that would likely spark a new "refugee crisis".

The threat of a conflagration has sent markets spiralling, with traders fretting over supplies of key commodities including wheat and metals.

"Russia/Ukraine tensions bring both a possible demand shock (for Europe), and more importantly a much larger supply shock for the rest of the world given the importance of Russia and Ukraine to energy, hard commodities and soft commodities," said National Australia Bank's Tapas Strickland.

The crisis comes as governments struggle to contain runaway inflation fuelled by demand as life returns after recent Covid-19 lockdowns, with many fearing the fragile global economic recovery from the pandemic could be knocked off course.

After staging a slight bounce Wednesday in reaction to what were considered light sanctions against Moscow, Asian markets were back in the red after a hefty drop on Wall Street.

- 'Policy mistakes' -
The stand-off in Europe has provided central banks with a further headache as they move to lift pandemic-era financial support and tighten monetary policy.

Attention is on every utterance from Federal Reserve officials as they prepare to hike interest rates next month, with speculation over how fast and hard it will move.

Commentators said bets are on six increases this year, down from previous forecasts for up to seven, and they said the stakes are rising further.

"Policy mistakes at this point in time are almost guaranteed," Shana Sissel of Banrion Capital Management told Bloomberg Television.

"The question isn't, 'Is there going to be a policy mistake?', but, 'How bad will it be? Will the Fed hike too much too fast, will they front-load everything?'"

And with uncertainty reigning supreme, warnings abound of worse to come, with BNY Mellon Investment Management's Lale Akoner saying: "Expect volatility to really persist in the next few months."

Geopolitical risks were flaring at a "very inopportune time", she added, as traders try to navigate central bank tightening.

- Key figures around 0400 GMT -
West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.6 percent at $95.44 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 3.3 percent at $100.04 per barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 25,980.32

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 3.1 percent at 22,925.60 (break)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.9 percent at 3,458.12 (break)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1245 from $1.1308 late Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3517 from $1.3545

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.19 pence from 83.41 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 114.79 yen from 114.96 yen

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.4 percent at 33,131.76 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 7,498.18 (close)



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.