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Syria Is the 'Hostage' of Russia's Ukrainian Adventure

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) visit Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base, southeast of Latakia in Syria, December 11, 2017. (EPA)
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) visit Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base, southeast of Latakia in Syria, December 11, 2017. (EPA)
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Syria Is the 'Hostage' of Russia's Ukrainian Adventure

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) visit Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base, southeast of Latakia in Syria, December 11, 2017. (EPA)
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) visit Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base, southeast of Latakia in Syria, December 11, 2017. (EPA)

It won't be a stretch to say that Syria will be among the countries most affected by the Russian attack on Ukraine, with all its military and political implications and whether President Vladimir Putin manages to "change the regime" in Kyiv or languish in the "Ukrainian swamp."

The situation in Syria has long been tied to other crises in recent years, such as the ones in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, given that the main players there are the Russians and Turks. The players had often exchanged blows on the front to deliver messages and carry out geopolitical deals. However, the clearest military connection lies between Ukraine and Russia:

- Assad-Yanukovych: After former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014, Putin retaliated to the revolution in Ukraine by annexing Crimea in March that same year. Moscow at the time also demanded that Damascus take a harder line at the peace talks that were being held in Geneva, adding that it should not yield to the Syrian revolution. During a meeting at the time with Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia and Special Representative of the President of Russia for the Middle East, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told him he will not act like Yanukovych and flee Syria, choosing instead to "stay and persevere."

- Military intervention: Even though Moscow had objected to the western intervention in Iraq and Libya, it yielded to Damascus and Tehran's pleas that it intervene in Syria. In September 2015, Putin intervened militarily in Syria to prevent "regime change". In exchange, Russia reaped major military privileges, most significant of which was establishing a permanent military base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus.

Not only did Russia turn the tide of war in the regime's favor, it also turned Syria into a military testing ground. Observers noted that the images of the fighting in Ukraine look largely like those that were coming out of western and central Syria in 2016.

- Warm waters: Deploying Russian forces by the Mediterranean had long been a czarist dream and it was achieved by transforming the small port of Tartus into a naval base, not too far from NATO's borders in Turkey. Russia underlined this "strategic achievement" on the eve of the Ukrainian invasion by holding the largest naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean, where NATO forces were also holding drills. Moreover, Russian Defense Minister Serge Shoigu was at the Hmeimim to oversee the exercise, demonstrating that Moscow now views Syria as an "extension of its national security".

- Symbolic signs: It was no coincidence that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad was in Moscow the day Putin declared the "independence" of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Mikdad said the declaration was in line with international law and the United Nations Charter. Assad on Thursday hailed the attack on Ukraine as a "correction of history" after the break up of the Soviet Union. Syria had also previously recognized several separatist republics controlled by Moscow, a sign that it is part of the "Russian world" envisioned by Putin.

- Spearhead: Moscow views the Hmeimim base, which boasts the S-400 and S-300 systems, as the spearhead of its confrontation with NATO, which has a base in Incirlik in southern Turkey. Putin was able to win over Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, who has been disappointed with the American support to Kurds in eastern Syria. The best example of this is Ankara's refusal of Ukraine's request to close the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships. In return, Shoigu, on his latest visit to Syria, rejected Damascus' request to wage a wide-scale offensive against the Idlib province in the northwest.

- Iron Dome: Turkey is not the only one treading carefully with the Russian attack on Ukraine. Reports have said Israel has refused to offer military support to Kyiv because it fears angering Putin and having the freedom it has in attacking "Iranian positions" in Syria restricted, especially amid reports that one of the outcomes of the Ukrainian war would be further Russian-Iranian rapprochement.

- Contact lines: The "borders" of the three "zones of influence" in Syria have remained largely unchanged in the past two years. The confrontation in Ukraine may, however, expose them to several tests. Washington has declared that the collision avoidance agreement with Russia in Syria still stands. Moscow has also rejected Damascus' request to attack Idlib. These "understandings" will undoubtedly be tested as developments in Ukraine unravel. The situation in Ukraine will likely also impact the fate of the resolution on the cross-border aid deliveries in Syria.

- Economic cost: The crisis in Ukraine will not only have political and military implications on Syria, but major economic ones as well, especially since Damascus relies heavily on food and oil support from Moscow to grapple with western sanctions.

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With a Stalemate in Ukraine and Discontent at Home, Putin Seems Ready to Escalate His War

Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a welcoming ceremony before a meeting with Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a welcoming ceremony before a meeting with Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
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With a Stalemate in Ukraine and Discontent at Home, Putin Seems Ready to Escalate His War

Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a welcoming ceremony before a meeting with Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a welcoming ceremony before a meeting with Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan May 28, 2026. (Reuters)

Facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians, President Vladimir Putin appears ready to try to change the narrative around the conflict.

He looks likely to sharply escalate the Russian aerial attacks on the Ukrainian capital in the hope it will shore up his sagging domestic approval ratings and persuade an increasingly pessimistic audience at home that Moscow is winning the war, now in its fifth year, The Associated Press said.

Russia’s warning to carry out “consistent and systematic” missile strikes on Kyiv, accompanied by a call for evacuating foreign embassies from the capital, signals Putin’s intention to expand Russia's barrage despite the heavy costs and potential international outrage.

Massive drills of Russia's nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kyiv’s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin’s intention to up the ante.

As Russia's advance stalls, Ukraine boosts long-range strikes

After a series of gains last year, Russia’s advances along the over 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line have ground to a near halt recently, and Ukraine’s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.

“The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis. “Russian forces’ rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.”

The battlefield gridlock undermines Putin’s declared goal of quickly capturing the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. Kyiv has rejected his demands to withdraw from the region as a condition for a ceasefire.

At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, inflicting increasing damage.

Putin scaled down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes. Days later, a massive drone attack on Moscow's suburbs killed three and showed that even the densely protected capital isn’t fully immune from assault, shattering Kremlin efforts to cast the conflict as something distant that doesn’t affect ordinary Russians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks were “significantly changing the situation — and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.”

Acknowledging the growing threat of Ukraine's deep strikes, Russian lawmakers this week approved a bill that says the country’s banks should bear the cost of installing drone-jamming systems on their premises, rather than rely on the military.

“From Russia’s perspective, these attacks are just going to get worse,” said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He added that Ukraine's increasingly audacious drone attacks were “exacting not only a political but an economic cost in Russia.”

The war is taking a toll on the Russian economy and morale

Russia’s economy has stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending has petered out. The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control. And even though the US war in Iran has meant windfall oil revenues for Russia, fundamental economic challenges remain.

Putin is expected to play down the negative dynamics at next week's international economic forum in St. Petersburg, an annual event intended to showcase Russia’s achievements.

Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an analysis that “war-fueled high prices of capital, labor and goods, as well as rising taxes, have begun to depress the civilian sectors,” resulting in "a dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation.”

While Russia has relied on volunteer soldiers to fight the war, offering them comparatively high wages and other benefits, Gould-Davies argued that “there are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit.”

To sustain the war, the Kremlin will have to forcibly mobilize human and material resources, requiring it to “curtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labor freedom, and freedom of movement,” he said.

In a sign of brewing discontent, some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin have started to openly criticize government policies.

A move by authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has upset daily routines for millions, causing open grumbling. Natalya Kasperskaya, a prominent IT entrepreneur and a staunch Kremlin supporter, harshly criticized the shutdowns and attempts to block virtual private networks, warning that they cause massive damage to the tech sector.

Tatyana Stanovaya, a Russia expert who founded the R.Politik newsletter focused on Kremlin politics, noted the spreading Ukrainian drone attacks along with mobile internet shutdowns and rising taxes have eroded Putin’s standing. While he faces no immediate threats to his rule, “the gradual fading of Putin’s credibility is real,” she said.

In early spring, Russian opinion polls, including one by a government-run pollster, recorded a dip in Putin’s approval ratings, although they rose slightly in May in the state-controlled poll after the organization changed its methodology to include face-to-face interviews. Many observers believe the numbers may be inflated amid a widespread crackdown on dissent.

“Putin is losing his magic,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Power remains undivided in his hands, but its spell is fading. Even loyalists complain about the mounting restrictions and repression, and once-upbeat businesspeople are now despondent.”

Russia's new threats to Ukraine and the West

Citing a May 22 Ukrainian drone attack on a college dormitory in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine that Moscow said killed 21 people, Putin ordered a massive missile strike on Kyiv and its surrounding region. Sunday's barrage that involved Russia’s new hypersonic Oreshnik missile killed two, injured scores of others and destroyed or damaged many buildings.

On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will launch “consistent and systematic” strikes on Kyiv to target drone-making facilities and “decision-making centers.” It urged foreign diplomats to leave the capital — a demand rejected by Ukraine’s allies.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn him of the coming strikes and push for the evacuation of its diplomats.

“The danger in all of these wars as they continue and then they go on is that they always have the threat of escalation, of spreading into something new,” Rubio told reporters after the call.

The Iran war has effectively put US mediation efforts in Ukraine on hold and drained American missile arsenals, delaying the delivery of US-made Patriot missiles that Ukraine desperately needs to fend off Russian attacks.

Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said Russia sees the shortage of air defense assets in Kyiv as an opportunity.

“Kyiv’s air defenses have been exhausted enough to make a massive attack efficient,” he said in a recent commentary.

Accompanying the declared blitz on Kyiv, Russia issued a barrage of threats aimed at Ukraine's European allies.

The Defense Ministry published a list of facilities in Europe that it said were involved in manufacturing drones and their components for Ukraine. And Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned the Baltic nations that their NATO membership won’t protect them from Moscow’s retaliation if they allow Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory. Those allies have denounced Moscow's claims.

“We are actually very, very close to direct military confrontation,” said Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Features

Iran War Has Complicated Plans for an Int’l Force in Gaza That Has Yet to Materialize

Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Wednesday in Gaza City, May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Wednesday in Gaza City, May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iran War Has Complicated Plans for an Int’l Force in Gaza That Has Yet to Materialize

Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Wednesday in Gaza City, May 28, 2026. (Reuters)
Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Wednesday in Gaza City, May 28, 2026. (Reuters)

The International Stabilization Force for Gaza was announced with great aplomb at the inaugural meeting of US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace in February. The American general tapped to lead the 20,000-strong force said it would ensure “future prosperity and enduring peace” after the devastating Israel-Hamas war.

Three months on, he still has no force to lead as none of the five countries that pledged troops have come through with any significant contributions.

Efforts to shore up the fragile ceasefire have stalled as Hamas has refused to disarm and Israel has seized more territory while continuing to strike what it says are militant targets, often killing civilians.

Indonesian commitment on indefinite hold

The biggest blow to the planned force came about a week after the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, when Indonesia put its commitment of 8,000 troops on indefinite hold. Some 1,000 were to have been sent in April, followed by the remainder in June.

Indonesian's pledge was by far the largest of the group, which also includes Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Albania. US Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, who spoke at the Board of Peace event, was to command the force.

Indonesia suspended its plans over what Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said last week seemed to be a lack of commitment from a distracted Washington, saying “we have not yet received any implementation guidelines.”

“New dynamics have emerged,” he told parliament. “Because the intensity of the conflict between US and Iranian forces remains very high, the BoP has tended to be left behind. Since the BoP has been left behind, the ISF has also been left behind.”

US attack on Iran influenced Indonesia's decision

Domestic issues may have factored into Indonesia's decision, said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the Indonesia-Middle East/North Africa desk at Jakarta's Center for Economic and Law Studies.

The Iran war is extremely unpopular in Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country. The economy is suffering from soaring prices as a result of the conflict, and there is widespread skepticism of the Board of Peace.

“If you talk to the people on the street, I don’t think they believe that the Board of Peace will actually help the people of Gaza,” Rakhmat said. There are also concerns about sending troops to the Middle East when the economy is faltering, he added.

Indonesia lost four peacekeepers who were part of the United Nations mission in Lebanon during fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. That has further soured public opinion on such international commitments, he said.

Board of Peace blames stalled ceasefire on Hamas

The US military’s Central Command declined to comment or make Jeffers available for an interview, referring all queries to the Board of Peace.

Board of Peace spokesman Brad Klapper also declined to comment on Indonesia's decision or the future of the stabilization force, pointing instead to May 21 remarks made at the UN by Nickolay Mladenov, a former Bulgarian defense minister who Trump appointed director of the Board of Peace.

Mladenov said the international force would not be able to begin operations until there was agreement and implementation of a second phase of the ceasefire, which would see Hamas disarm and Israel begin to withdraw. Israeli troops control some 60% of Gaza.

Mladenov has blamed the deadlock on Hamas, saying its disarmament is “non-negotiable” and is holding up progress on other fronts, including Israel's withdrawal and reconstruction.

“You cannot build a future with armed groups running the streets, hiding in tunnels and stockpiling weapons,” Mladenov said in Jerusalem this month. “You cannot deliver reconstruction with militias on every corner.”

Hamas blames delays on Israel

Hamas says Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, holding up its further implementation, and has accused Mladenov of siding with Israel.

Israeli strikes have killed more than 880 Palestinians since the ceasefire, according to local health officials. Israel says it was responding to violations of the truce.

Hamas is also demanding Israel withdraw from areas seized since the start of the ceasefire, according to an Egyptian official with knowledge of the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks. Egypt has long served as a mediator with Hamas.

Many of the countries that have pledged forces have refused to send troops without a deal on Hamas disarming, the official said.

Token forces committed and none yet known to be on the ground

Kazakhstan has said its support for the stabilization force would be limited to “the humanitarian component,” including sending medical units with a field hospital. Its Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Albania's Defense Ministry also declined to comment on its troop commitment, saying it was a “dynamic and ongoing process.”

Earlier this month, its chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Arben Kingji, told reporters that while the military had “participated in reconnaissance activities,” no troops had yet been sent. He said only a few would be dispatched as part of the stabilization force headquarters, without giving numbers, adding that further contributions would be considered.

Kosovo, which is expected to send 20 troops, said in April that it was in the “final phase of preparations.” The Defense Ministry did not reply to a request for an update.

Morocco's Foreign Ministry also did not reply. At the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said it would deploy “high-level military officers to the joint military command of the ISF.”

Indonesian turnaround can't be ruled out

Despite the delays from Indonesia, Rakhmat said it was too early to rule out eventual participation in the stabilization force.

President Prabowo Subianto is a former army general who has been keen to raise Indonesia’s profile on the world stage and wants to avoid jeopardizing economic ties with the US, Rakhmat said.

“Prabowo wants to strengthen ties to Washington and sign different agreements with the US, so to completely withdraw and completely cancel the plan, I don't think it's on the table,” he said.

Features

What We Know and Don't Know about the Emerging Deal to End the Iran War

Government supporters hold Iranian flags and pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a ceremony honoring the armed forces and those killed in the war with Israel and the US in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (AP)
Government supporters hold Iranian flags and pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a ceremony honoring the armed forces and those killed in the war with Israel and the US in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (AP)
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What We Know and Don't Know about the Emerging Deal to End the Iran War

Government supporters hold Iranian flags and pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a ceremony honoring the armed forces and those killed in the war with Israel and the US in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (AP)
Government supporters hold Iranian flags and pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a ceremony honoring the armed forces and those killed in the war with Israel and the US in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (AP)

A deal appears to be emerging between the United States and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump over the weekend said it had been “largely negotiated.”

It is not clear when or how the deal might be finalized and when its various parts will take effect. Trump spoke after calls with allies in the Middle East, including a separate call with Israel. Details come from two regional officials and a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

Here’s what we know and don’t know:

The war would end

In the 12 weeks since the US and Israel launched the war with attacks on Iran that killed senior officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran has insisted that any deal focus on ending the fighting on all fronts. That includes Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group has been fighting Israel since two days into the war.

A fragile ceasefire has held since April 7. An end to the war would ease concerns throughout a region that saw Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates struck by Iranian missiles and drones. It would allow for global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world's oil and natural gas, to begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. It also would allow the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region.

Both regional officials said the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as a commitment to not interfere in the domestic affairs of countries in the region including Iran. That’s a critical reference to Iran’s support for proxies, which also include the Houthi militants in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza and Shiite armed groups in Iraq.

The US wants Israel to have a free hand to respond to what it views as threats in Lebanon while Iran rejects it, one regional official said. The US official said the deal would guarantee Israel’s right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.

The Strait of Hormuz would reopen gradually

Iran’s nuclear program, missile program and support for armed proxies were the stated reasons for the US and Israel attacking Iran. But Tehran’s retaliatory grip on the Strait of Hormuz quickly shot to the top of global concerns as hundreds of ships carrying oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other supplies were stranded.

Under the emerging agreement, the strait would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending the blockade of Iran’s ports it launched on April 17, the regional officials said. The blockade has limited Iran’s ability to ship its oil and bring in badly needed cash for its long-suffering economy.

The US would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, said one of the officials, who has been briefed on the negotiations. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s billions of dollars in frozen funds would be negotiated during a 60-day period, the official said.

Iran would give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium

Iran’s nuclear program and international concerns over its possible pursuit of a nuclear weapon underlie all tensions, and the US and Israel have considered highly complex military operations to go in and take out its highly enriched uranium.

Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up that stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the regional officials. One official, with direct knowledge of the negotiations, said how Iran would give it up would be subject to further talks over the 60-day period. Some would likely be diluted and the rest transferred to a third country, potentially Russia, the official said. Russia has offered to take it.

A US official confirmed the 60-day period and said if Iran doesn’t give up its stockpile, there will be no sanctions relief.

Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran says it has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology while insisting its program is peaceful. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV they were ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.”

Trump on Sunday on social media said that “our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.”

What appears to be missing

Other issues have not been mentioned in descriptions of the emerging deal, including the status of Iran's uranium enrichment.

Another is Iran's missile program, which Israel in particular has sought to destroy.

And while the United States and Israel entered the war with stated ambitions of seeing Iranians rise up against their government after nationwide protests early in the year, any discussion of leadership change in Tehran appears to be out.

As for Iran's past stated aims during negotiations, there appears to be no mention of any withdrawal of US forces from the region, or for reparations for the damage the war has caused.