Conflict Wounds Russian and Ukrainian Currencies

FILE - A food delivery man leaves an exchange office with screen showing the currency exchange rates of US Dollar and Euro to Russian Rubles in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - A food delivery man leaves an exchange office with screen showing the currency exchange rates of US Dollar and Euro to Russian Rubles in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo, File)
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Conflict Wounds Russian and Ukrainian Currencies

FILE - A food delivery man leaves an exchange office with screen showing the currency exchange rates of US Dollar and Euro to Russian Rubles in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - A food delivery man leaves an exchange office with screen showing the currency exchange rates of US Dollar and Euro to Russian Rubles in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo, File)

Their economies rocked by conflict, Russian and Ukrainian authorities have deployed different tactics to defend their weakened currencies, with varying degrees of success.

The Russian ruble, which was trading around 80 to the dollar before Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, lost 40 percent of its value in the following days, slumping to an unprecedented level of 150 to the dollar, AFP said.

It has since clawed back much of that, trading at around 105 rubles to the dollar, seemingly having profited from talks between Moscow and Kyiv to end the conflict.

Despite having been cut off from much of its foreign currency reserves due to Western sanctions, the Russian central bank has nevertheless occasionally sold some to support the ruble.

Together with strict capital controls that require exporters to sell most of their foreign currency to the central bank and limits on consumers accessing their holdings, the measures appear to be working.

"During the past 10 years the central bank intervened directly only several times, which now works in favor of the market exchange rate stabilizing," said analyst Alexander Kudrin at investment bank Aton.

"The first signs of stabilization are already appearing," he added.

Russian economy expert Janis Kluge at the Berlin-based SWP think tank tweeted recently that the ruble was strengthening thanks to strict capital controls and large oil and gas revenues following the initial sanctions "shock".

In Ukraine, which is under martial law, the central bank has suspended all currency trading and set a fixed exchange rate of approximately 29 hryvnia to the dollar.

It also banned foreign currency withdrawals and most cross-border payments.

Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, director of monetary policy at the Ukrainian central bank, said officials had a plan already prepared in case of conflict.

"We always hoped that we would not need to implement it, but we were ready," he told AFP.

"Thanks to the experience of working in administrative constraints, we had a clear understanding of what needs to be done to prevent destabilization of the financial sector and to establish its effective operation under such circumstances."

- Black market danger -
Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko recently said on Ukrainian television that the central bank's measures created "certain conditions under which there is exchange rate stability today".

He also noted that Ukraine has received support from its international partners including the European Union and World Bank, adding that the International Monetary Fund has approved a $1.4 billion emergency aid program for Ukraine.

Ousmene Mandeng, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, warned that while the measures may be justified by the extreme circumstances, they carry certain risks.

"The suspension of foreign exchange trading is de facto equivalent to a price freeze and... if prolonged can lead to a black market for foreign exchange and de facto multiple currency" use, he told AFP.

"A resumption of foreign exchange trading ... would be desirable to minimize implied distortions," Mandeng added, noting that the Ukrainian central bank had eased some restrictions and that some interbank foreign exchange market operations appear to be slowly resuming.

The central bank's Lepushynskyi said it plans to relax restrictions as soon as it sees room to do so.

"After the liberation of Ukraine from Russian invaders and the normalization of the economic situation, we will resume the full operation of the foreign exchange market and lift currency restrictions to pre-war levels in the shortest possible time," he said.

Mandeng also noted that Ukraine had about $28 billion in foreign currency reserves at the beginning of the month.

"That should offer some comfort for the short term but may eventually need to be replenished," he said.

Ukrainians fleeing the country with hryvnia in their pockets are facing the most direct problems due to lack of convertibility of the currency.

The European Commission's Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said recently that the commission was working together with the European Central Bank "to provide some kind of convertibility assistance so that people are able to convert at least certain amounts of their savings in hryvnia into euros".



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.