World Bank: War in Ukraine Raising Risks for MENA

The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
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World Bank: War in Ukraine Raising Risks for MENA

The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)

The war in Ukraine has "multiplied risks" for the Middle East and North Africa's poorer countries by raising food and energy prices, the World Bank said Thursday, warning of potential social unrest.

In its latest update to its MENA growth forecast, the development lender said inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19 "are likely to be exacerbated" by Russia's invasion.

"The threat of Covid-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor," the World Bank's MENA vice president, Ferid Belhaj, said in the report, titled "Reality Check".

World Bank president David Malpass said this week that the Russian war on Ukraine has started a chain reaction in the global economy, pushing energy and food prices higher, exacerbating debt concerns and potentially worsening poverty and hunger.

"Rising food prices may have far-reaching effects beyond increasing food insecurity," said the report, adding: "Historically in MENA, increases in bread prices have... contributed to increased social unrest and conflict.

"This link between food prices, conflict and low growth poses a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states in MENA," it said.

Ukraine is a key source of grain, while Russia is a major producer of energy and fertilizer needed for agriculture. The MENA region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from both countries.

According to the report, inflation in Gulf countries is expected to reach 3.0 percent this year compared to 1.2 percent in 2021, and will rise to 3.7 percent in oil-importing countries from 1.4 percent last year.

"For some oil importers, food subsidies would be hard to maintain due to limited resources," while "rising oil prices could delay reforms", the report said.

Despite that, the World Bank forecasts that economic growth in the region will be 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.

"The region as a whole is buoyed by oil" and is doing "much better" than any other in the world, lead economist for the MENA region Daniel Lederman told AFP in an interview.

However, the expected growth is "insufficient and uneven".

"Insufficient because a large number of economies in the MENA region will still be poor in terms of their GDP per capita relative to where they were in 2019 in the eve of the pandemic," he said.

And "uneven because the faster (recovering) economies for 2022 are expected to be oil exporters, but oil importers are expected to suffer".

Lederman urged greater transparency from MENA governments regarding their economic data, citing this as a factor behind previously overoptimistic forecasts.

"Published research in leading economic journals in the world indicate that overly optimistic and imprecise forecasts are associated with debt and financial vulnerabilities, higher probability of financial crises and even economic contractions in the near future," he said.



Gold Extends Gains as Trump Tariffs Fuel Safe Haven Flows

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Extends Gains as Trump Tariffs Fuel Safe Haven Flows

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, but traded below the recent all-time highs, as uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continued to fuel economic growth concerns and safe haven flows into bullion.

Spot gold gained 0.6% at $2,913.79 an ounce as of 0714 GMT. It hit a record high of $2,942.70 last week.

US gold futures added 0.9% to $2,925.50.

"Trump's disruptive modus operandi, aggressive rhetoric and tariffs - whether actual or threatened - could unravel global trade and intricate supply chains," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior financial writer at trading platform Tradu, Reuters reported.

"With uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Trump 2.0 era, gold is set to remain a natural beneficiary of risk-off flows and central bank buying."

Since taking office last month, Trump has swiftly redrawn the global trade battlefield with a series of tariffs, while plans are already in motion for sweeping reciprocal tariffs, aimed squarely at any nation that taxes US products.

"Gold continues to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the US. government's tariff policy. Central bank buying should also continue to provide support, even if there is no new data on this," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

The market's focus has now shifted to the US Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes due on Wednesday for clues into the central bank's interest rate trajectory.

"Price gains are also supported by growing expectations that the Fed will cut rates in 2025 - a sentiment that gained further traction among traders after last week's disappointing US retail sales figures," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades, said.

Bullion benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as rising price pressures, but higher interest rates diminish the asset's allure.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.50 an ounce. Platinum jumped 0.9% to $985.20 and palladium climbed 1.6% to $978.00.