Stocks Waver, Oil Prices Fall on Recession Fears

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
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Stocks Waver, Oil Prices Fall on Recession Fears

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo

Stock markets wobbled and oil prices sank on Friday amid growing fears that inflation-fighting interest rate hikes by central banks could trigger recession.

Investors were shaken this week after the US Federal Reserve unleashed its biggest hike in borrowing costs for almost 30 years to tackle red-hot consumer prices, AFP said.

The third Fed increase was followed by the fifth straight hike by the Bank of England and the first in 15 years by the Swiss central bank, underscoring the growing global concerns about inflation.

The moves caused a global selloff on Thursday. US and European markets tried to stage a rebound on Friday, but some indices were back in the red later in the day.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended back under 30,000 points while the broad-based S&P 500 eked out a positive close and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.4 percent.

But the S&P lost 5.8 percent for the week, its worst performance since 2020.

European markets seesawed, with London finishing in the red, Paris almost flat and Frankfurt closing higher.

"Sentiment has been shattered and equities could suffer further," Craig Erlam, an analyst at online trading platform OANDA, told AFP.

Karl Haeling of LBBW agreed, saying "markets are oversold, but probably not oversold enough to call for a bottom."

He said the modest gains Friday likely mark "a little technical pause."

Sentiment turned sour again as US official data showed industrial production in May had risen by just 0.2 percent, much slower than April and weaker than expected.

"We see that the positive attempts get rapidly killed as the market prices in a higher recession risk as inflation doesn't ease," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote bank, told AFP.

Asian stock markets mostly closed lower Friday.

Recession fears also gripped the oil market as WTI, the US benchmark, fell by 6.4 percent to $110.04 per barrel. The international benchmark, Brent North Sea Crude, dropped 5.4 percent to $113.29.

Energy prices have soared since Russia invaded Ukraine, driving inflation higher, which has prompted central banks to spring into action.

- BoJ bucks the trend -
Investors worry that while the rate increases can help tame inflation, they also crimp demand and economic growth.

The Bank of Japan bucked the global trend on Friday as it stood by its decision not to raise its rate, sending the yen close to the lowest level against the dollar since 1998.

Officials in Tokyo insist that low rates are still needed to nurture a struggling economy, though the BoJ did say it "was necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets".

Stock markets have been tumbling for months as traders contemplate the end of the era of cheap cash that had sent share prices to record or multi-year highs.

Inflation worldwide stands at levels not seen for decades owing in particular to surges in energy and food prices.

US markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

- Key figures at around 2100 GMT -
New York - Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 29,888.78 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.2 percent at 3,674.84 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: UP 1.4 percent at 10,798.35 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,016.25 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.7 percent at 13,126.26 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 5,882.65 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.3 percent at 3,438.96 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 25,963.00 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.1 percent at 21,075.00 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 1.0 percent at 3,316.79 (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0493 from $1.0549 late Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2221 from $1.2353

Euro/pound: UP at 85.83 pence from 85.41 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 134.99 yen from 132.21 yen

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 5.4 percent at $113.33 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 6.3 percent at $110.21



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.