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Turkish Inflation Seen Above 78% in June, Just Below 70% at End-2022

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
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Turkish Inflation Seen Above 78% in June, Just Below 70% at End-2022

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan

Turkey's inflation is expected to rise above 78% in June and it was seen declining to just below 70% by end-2022, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as pricing behavior deteriorates across the board due to a weak currency and a loose monetary policy.

Inflation has surged since last autumn, when the lira slumped after the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by 500 basis-points to 14%, in an easing cycle sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It has been further stoked this year by the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as the lira's continued decline. The currency shed 44% against the dollar last year, and was down 24% this year before recovering some losses in recent days.

The median estimate of 12 economists who participated in the Reuters poll for annual inflation in June was 78.35%, with forecasts ranging between 72.30% and 81.80%.

That would make it the highest reading since September 1998, when annual inflation was 80.4% and Turkey was battling to end a decade of chronically high inflation.

The median of nine economists for the monthly figure stood at 5.38%, in a range of 3.50% and 6.80%.

Inflation was seen falling only to 69.50% by the end of the year, according to the median estimate of 18 economists, with forecasts between 60.33% and 120%.

The median for the year-end stood at 63.5% in the previous Reuters poll conducted in May.

Citi said it continues to see a broad-based deterioration in price dynamics, while soaring producer prices continue to exert pressure on consumer prices, further clouding the outlook.

"We expect annual inflation to remain elevated until November (averaging over 80% y-o-y) before moving towards 65% y-o-y in December on the back of strong base effects," it said.

The government has said inflation will fall with the new economic program, which prioritizes low rates to boost production and exports and aims to achieve a current account surplus.

Erdogan said on Monday that he expects inflation to come down to "appropriate" levels by February-March next year, while the central bank said it would drop to 42.8% by end-2022.

Opposition lawmakers and economists have questioned the reliability of the Turkish Statistical Institute's (TUIK) figures, claims TUIK has dismissed. Polls show Turks believe inflation is far higher than official data.

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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”

Business

Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.

Business

Saudi Arabia’s flynas, Syrian Civil Aviation Authority Partner to Launch 'flynas Syria'

The new airline will operate commercial air transport services in accordance with approved regulations and standards (flynas)
The new airline will operate commercial air transport services in accordance with approved regulations and standards (flynas)
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Saudi Arabia’s flynas, Syrian Civil Aviation Authority Partner to Launch 'flynas Syria'

The new airline will operate commercial air transport services in accordance with approved regulations and standards (flynas)
The new airline will operate commercial air transport services in accordance with approved regulations and standards (flynas)

Saudi budget carrier flynas has signed an agreement with the Syrian General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport to establish a new commercial airline under the name "flynas Syria," with operations scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Saturday’s agreement comes within the framework of bilateral cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Syria, as well as the strategic investment agreements between the two countries, coordinated with the Saudi Ministry of Investment and the Syrian General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport.

The new airline will operate commercial air transport services in accordance with approved regulations and standards, meeting the highest safety and aviation security requirements. All licensing and operational procedures will be completed in coordination with the relevant authorities.

The carrier will be established as a joint venture, with 51% ownership held by the Syrian General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport and 49% by flynas.

The new airline will operate flights to several destinations across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. This expansion aims to bolster air traffic to and from Syria, enhance regional and international connectivity, and meet growing demand for air travel.

"This step is part of our commitment to supporting high-quality cross-border investments. The aviation sector is a key enabler of economic development, and the establishment of 'flynas Syria' serves as a model for constructive investment cooperation,” said Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih.

“This partnership enhances economic integration and market connectivity and supports development goals by advancing air transport infrastructure, ultimately serving the mutual interests of both nations and promoting regional economic stability,” he added.

President of the Syrian General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport Omar Hosari also stated that the establishment of flynas Syria represents a strategic step within a comprehensive national vision aimed at rebuilding and developing Syria's civil aviation sector on modern economic and regulatory foundations.

“This will be achieved while balancing safety requirements, operational sustainability, investment stimulation, and passenger services. The partnership reflects the state's orientation toward smart cooperation models with trusted regional partners, ensuring the transfer of expertise, the development of national capabilities, and the enhancement of Syria's air connectivity with regional and international destinations, in line with global best practices in the air transport industry."

flynas Chairman Ayed Al-Jeaid stated that the company continues to pursue strategies aimed at growth and international expansion, describing the agreement as a historic milestone in the company's journey and a promising investment model in partnership with Syria.

flynas CEO Bander Al-mohanna said the step represents a qualitative leap in the company's strategy and financial performance, highlighting the transfer of the company's low-cost aviation experience to the Syrian market to support regional and international air connectivity.

flynas currently operates 23 weekly flights from Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam to Damascus, including two daily direct flights from Riyadh, one daily flight from Jeddah, and two weekly flights from Dammam.

The airline made history on June 5, 2025, by adding the Syrian capital to its network, becoming the first Saudi carrier to resume scheduled flights to Damascus.