Oil Prices Slip as Recession Fears Rumble On, Tight Supply Stems Losses

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
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Oil Prices Slip as Recession Fears Rumble On, Tight Supply Stems Losses

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Monday, paring gains from the previous session, as fears of a global recession weighed on the market even as supply remains tight amid lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures for September slipped 36 cents, or 0.3%, to $111.27 a barrel at 0300 GMT, having jumped 2.4% on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery dropped 34 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.09 a barrel, after climbing 2.5% on Friday, Reuters reported.

"The recession fears are the primary bearish factor that has capped the surge in oil prices. Rising rates and a plunge in consumer confidence have dented the fuel demand outlook, while data shows that the US petroleum refinery capacity has improved," said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

"In addition, a strong USD also weakens broad commodity markets, including crude prices."

US consumer sentiment dropped to a record low in June despite a marginal improvement in the outlook for inflation, as the Federal Reserve said its commitment to reining in inflation was "unconditional" and increasing concerns of interest rate hikes.

Oil supply concerns still remain, preventing steeper price falls.

"Energy markets remain laden with specific supply risks that makes being short a nervy experience," Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Tobin Gorey said.

Output from the 10 members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed.

Declines in Nigeria and Libya offset increases by Saudi Arabia and other large producers, and Libya faces further supply disruption due to escalating political unrest, making the likelihood of OPEC meeting its newly increased production quotas even more unlikely, said ANZ Research analysts in a note.

Libya's exports have dropped to between 365,000 bpd and 409,000 bpd, down about 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels, the National Oil Corp said last week.

In a further hit to supply, a planned strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers this week could cut the country's oil and condensate output by 130,000 bpd.



Saudi Arabia, Syria Sign Joint Airline and Telecoms Deals

Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
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Saudi Arabia, Syria Sign Joint Airline and Telecoms Deals

Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)

Syria and Saudi Arabia signed deals Saturday that include a joint airline and a $1-billion project to develop telecommunications, officials said, as Syria seeks to rebuild after years of war.

The new authorities in Damascus have worked to attract investment and have signed major agreements with several companies and governments.

Syrian Investment Authority chief Talal al-Hilali announced a series of deals including "a low-cost Syrian-Saudi airline aimed at strengthening regional and international air links".

The agreement also includes the development of a new international airport in the northern city of Aleppo, and redeveloping the existing facility.

Hilali also announced an agreement for a project called SilkLink to develop Syria's "telecommunications infrastructure and digital connectivity".

Syrian Telecommunications Minister Abdulsalam Haykal told the signing ceremony that the project would be implemented "with an investment of around $1 billion".

For decades, Syria was unable to secure significant investments because of Assad-era sanctions.

But the United States fully removed its remaining sanctions on Damascus late last year, paving the way for the full return of investments.

Syria and Saudi Arabia also inked an agreement on water desalination and development cooperation on Saturday.

At the ceremony, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih announced the launch of an investment fund for "major projects in Syria with the participation of the (Saudi) private sector".

The deals are part of "building a strategic partnership" between the two countries, he said.

Syria's Hilali said the agreements targeted "vital sectors that impact people's lives and form essential pillars for rebuilding the Syrian economy".

Syria has begun the mammoth task of trying to rebuild its shattered infrastructure and economy.

In July last year, Riyadh signed investment and partnership deals with Damascus valued at $6.4 billion to help rebuild the country's infrastructure, telecommunications and other major sectors.

A month later, Syria signed agreements worth more than $14 billion, including investments in Damascus airport and other transport and real estate projects.

This week, Syria signed a preliminary deal with US energy giant Chevron and Qatari firm Power International to explore for oil and gas offshore.


India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
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India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday hailed an interim trade agreement with the United States, saying it would bolster global growth and deepen economic ties between the two countries.

The pact cuts US "reciprocal" duties on Indian products to 18 percent from 25 percent, and commits India to large purchases of US energy and industrial goods.

US President Donald Trump, while announcing the deal Tuesday, had said Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

The deal eases months of tensions over India's oil purchases -- which Washington says fund a conflict it is trying to end -- and restores the close ties between Trump and the man he describes as "one of my greatest friends."

"Great news for India and USA!" Modi said on X on Saturday, praising US President Donald Trump's "personal commitment" to strengthening bilateral ties.

The agreement, he said, reflected "the growing depth, trust and dynamism" of their partnership.

Modi's remarks came hours after Trump issued an executive order scrapping an additional 25 percent levy imposed over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, in a step to implement the trade deal announced this week.

Modi, who has faced criticism at home about opening access of Indian agricultural markets to the United States and terms on oil imports, did not mention Russian oil in his statement.

"This framework will also strengthen resilient and trusted supply chains and contribute to global growth," he said.

It would also create fresh opportunities for Indian farmers, entrepreneurs and fishermen under the "Make in India" initiative.

In a separate statement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would "open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters".

Goyal also said the deal protects India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products, including maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry and milk.

Other terms of the agreement include the removal of tariffs on certain aircraft and parts, according to a separate joint statement released Friday by the White House.

The statement added that India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, tech products and coking coal over the next five years.

The shift marks a significant reduction in US tariffs on Indian products, down from a rate of 50 percent late last year.

Washington and New Delhi are expected to sign a formal trade deal in March.


Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
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Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth

Gold rebounded on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over US-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.

Spot gold rose 3.1% to $4,916.98 per ounce by 09:31 a.m. ET (1431 GMT), recouping losses posted during a volatile Asia session that followed a fall of 3.9% on Thursday. Bullion was headed for a weekly gain of about 1.3%.

US gold futures for April delivery gained 1% to $4,939.70 per ounce.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for the overseas buyers.

"The gold market is seeing perceived bargain hunting from bullish traders," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Iran and the US started high-stakes negotiations via Omani mediation on Friday to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran's nuclear program.

Wyckoff said gold's rebound lacks momentum and the metal is unlikely to break records without a major geopolitical trigger.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, does well in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose 5.3% to $74.98 an ounce after dipping below $65 earlier, but was still headed for its biggest weekly drop since 2011, down over 10.6%, following steep losses last week as well.

"What we're seeing in silver is huge speculation on the long side," said Wyckoff, adding that after years in a boom cycle, gold and silver now appear to be entering a typical commodity bust phase.

CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for a third time in two weeks on Thursday to curb risks from heightened market volatility.

Spot platinum added 3.2% to $2,052 per ounce, while palladium gained 4.9% to $1,695.18. Both were down for the week.