Asian Stocks Extend Global Rally as Recession Fears Ease for Now

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
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Asian Stocks Extend Global Rally as Recession Fears Ease for Now

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Asian markets rose Friday on easing recession fears, while there were growing hopes that Joe Biden will remove some Trump-era tariffs from Chinese goods.

Buying was also boosted by reports that Beijing was considering a huge stimulus shot to the struggling economy by allowing local governments to raise billions of dollars through bond issuance for infrastructure projects, AFP said.

However, surging inflation, rising interest rates and a fresh flare-up of Covid infections in Shanghai continued to keep investor sentiment grounded.

Traders were handed a strong lead from Wall Street, where all three main indexes climbed for a fourth straight day, helped by two top Federal Reserve officials who said the economy could withstand sharper rate hikes and maintain growth.

There has been growing talk that the fast pace of monetary tightening by the bank will tip the world's top economy into recession.

But Christopher Waller, a member of the board of governors, said worries were overblown and that a strong jobs market would provide a buffer, adding that rates needed to go up sharply and quickly.

St Louis Fed president James Bullard also said there was "a good chance of a soft landing".

And Brian Belski, at BMO Capital Markets, agreed that fears of a recession had gone too far.

"I'm calling this period right now a recession obsession," he told Bloomberg Television. "Institutional investors are not positioned for any kind of upside move. That’s why you are seeing these sharp moves on a day like (Thursday). We remain positive and think people are way too negative."

With the mood more upbeat, Asian equities advanced with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta all in the green.

- Jobs market weakness -The Fed's policy plans will be in focus later Friday when US employment data is released, with a strong reading providing the central bank with evidence to stick to its hawkish line.

But Matt Simpson at StoneX Financial said there were indications the jobs market could be showing signs of weakness.

The report "is unlikely to deter the Fed from a 75 basis points hike this month. But when the precious non-farm payroll numbers begin to crumble, so does the Fed’s argument that the US economy is robust", he said.

"And we’re seeing early signs of that across multiple employment metrics."

"When we do see unemployment begin to rise and headline employment growth lose momentum it will be hard for the Fed to ignore," he added.

"And that could provide a reason for the Fed to at least pause their hiking cycle, because a crumbling jobs market is great for deflation. So I’d expect market fireworks if and when (non-farm payroll numbers) begins to disappoint."

Biden is also reported to be holding a meeting later Friday with top advisers to discuss whether or not to lift some of the Trump-era tariffs imposed on around $300 billion of Chinese imports.

While he is also said to be considering another probe into other facets of Beijing's trade policy, analysts said the removal of the levies could boost China's export growth to the United States by about 20 percent.

The move could also help ease upward pressure on US inflation, which is running at a four-decade high.

Sterling extended Thursday's rally that came after Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the ruling Conservatives, paving the way for a new prime minister and bringing an end to weeks of political uncertainty in the United Kingdom.

The euro remained stuck at a 20-year low against the greenback after minutes from the European Central Bank's most recent meeting indicated that, unlike the Fed, it was happy to hike rates at a slower pace despite surging inflation.

- Key figures at around 0245 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.4 percent at 26,869.82 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.9 percent at 21,841.61

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,381.11

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2041 from $1.2024 Thursday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0173 from $1.0162

Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.46 pence from 84.49 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 135.72 yen from 136.01 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.3 percent at $102.43 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $104.49 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 31,384.55 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 1.1 percent at 7,189.08 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.