Europe Frets over Reduced Russia Gas Supplies

3D printed Natural Gas Pipes are placed on displayed Gazprom logo in this illustration taken, January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
3D printed Natural Gas Pipes are placed on displayed Gazprom logo in this illustration taken, January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Europe Frets over Reduced Russia Gas Supplies

3D printed Natural Gas Pipes are placed on displayed Gazprom logo in this illustration taken, January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
3D printed Natural Gas Pipes are placed on displayed Gazprom logo in this illustration taken, January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Russian gaz giant Gazprom begins 10 days of routine maintenance on its Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Monday -- with Germany and other European countries watching anxiously to see if the gas comes back on.

The annual work on the two pipelines was scheduled long in advance. The fear is however that -- with relations between Russia and the West at their lowest in years because of the invasion of Ukraine -- Gazprom might take the opportunity to simply shut off the valves.

"Putin is going to turn off the gas tap... but will he turn it back on one day?" German mass daily Bild asked on Sunday on its website.

"We are confronted by an unprecedented situation -- anything is possible," German vice-chancellor, Robert Habeck, told public radio over the weekend, according to AFP

"It is possible that the gas will flow once more, even at a higher volume level than before."

But, he warned, "it is possible that nothing comes through, and we still have to prepare for the worst" as Europe scrambles to transition away from Russia for energy supplies.

One issue at least, was resolved over the weekend, when Canada agreed to return to Germany turbines needed to maintain the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, despite the objections of Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, via his spokesman, on Sunday "saluted the decision of our Canadian friends" to grant what Ottawa termed a time-limited and revocable permit for Siemens Canada to allow the machine's return.

Russia had insisted it needed the machine's return before it could ramp supplies back up after several weeks of significant cuts.

Ukraine, however, last week accused Berlin of having given in to Russian "blackmail" after Moscow blamed reduced supplies on the repairs, not market conditions caused by the Ukraine war.

Moscow had wound down supplies by 60 percent in recent weeks, blaming the absence of the turbine even as Berlin denounced what it terms a "political" decision.

Those cuts had a knock-on effect on supplies to a number of EU states, including Poland and Bulgaria, who have seen theirs stopped altogether.

Berlin has explained that for technical reasons it would be difficult for Gazprom entirely to stop deliveries via Nord Stream.

As Habeck put it, "it is not like a water tap" that can simply be turned on or off.

Nord Stream 1 is the longest subsea pipeline in the world, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany and has been in operation for a decade.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, Germany suspended certification of a second pipeline, Nord Stream 2, as fears grew over Europe's massive dependence on Russian gas supplies.

But even now, a long-term shutdown of the pipeline would hit Germany and its EU neighbours hard, deepening an energy crisis in which uncertain supplies have pushed prices up ahead of Europe's winter.

Germany imports some 35 percent of its gas from Russia compared with 55 percent before the Ukraine conflict started.

The website of Nord Stream indicates that gas arriving in the German town of Lubmin continues to be sent on to Belgium, Denmark and France as well as Britain and the Netherlands.

German industry is very vulnerable to shortages and chemical trade group VCI says it is preparing "for the worst" with authorities discussing the possibility of having to ration supply.

If deliveries cease altogether, German multinational chemical firm BASF is considering furloughing part of its roughly 100,000 workforce.

And Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany's energy regulator, warned: "If we no longer receive Russian gas... current stocks will only last for one or two months."

On Thursday, parliament adopted a plan which includes limiting winter heating to a maximum 20 Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) and cutting hot water supplies in individual offices.

Habeck warned of "difficult societal choices" ahead.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
TT

Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
TT

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.