What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
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What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



War-Ravaged Gaza Faces Multi-Billion Dollar Reconstruction Challenge

Destroyed buildings are seen through the window of an airplane from the US Air Force overflying the Gaza Strip, on March 14, 2024. (AP)
Destroyed buildings are seen through the window of an airplane from the US Air Force overflying the Gaza Strip, on March 14, 2024. (AP)
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War-Ravaged Gaza Faces Multi-Billion Dollar Reconstruction Challenge

Destroyed buildings are seen through the window of an airplane from the US Air Force overflying the Gaza Strip, on March 14, 2024. (AP)
Destroyed buildings are seen through the window of an airplane from the US Air Force overflying the Gaza Strip, on March 14, 2024. (AP)

Billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild Gaza after the war between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, according to assessments from the United Nations.

Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in the enclave and swap Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, an official briefed on the agreement said on Wednesday.

Here is a breakdown of the destruction in Gaza from the conflict prompted by the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which at the time ruled the Palestinian enclave.

HOW MANY CASUALTIES ARE THERE?

The Hamas attack on Israel killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's retaliation has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Gaza's health ministry.

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO CLEAR THE RUBBLE?

The United Nations warned in October that removing 42 million tons of rubble left in the aftermath of Israel's bombardment could take years and cost $1.2 billion. A UN estimate from April 2024 suggested it would take 14 years to clear the rubble.

The debris is believed to be contaminated with asbestos, with some refugee camps struck during the war known to have been built with the material. The rubble also likely holds human remains. The Palestinian Ministry of Health estimated in May that 10,000 bodies were missing under the debris.

HOW MANY BUILDINGS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED?

Rebuilding Gaza's shattered homes will take at least until 2040, but could drag on for many decades, according to a UN report released last year.

Two-thirds of Gaza's pre-war structures - over 170,000 buildings - have been damaged or flattened, according to UN satellite data (UNOSAT) in December. That amounts to around 69% of the total structures of the Gaza Strip.

Within the count are a total of 245,123 housing units, according to an estimate from UNOSAT. Currently, over 1.8 million people are in need of emergency shelter in Gaza, the UN humanitarian office said.

WHAT IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE?

The estimated damage to infrastructure totaled $18.5 billion as of end-January 2024, affecting residential buildings, commerce, industry, and essential services such as education, health, and energy, a UN-World Bank report said.

An update by the UN humanitarian office this month showed that less than a quarter of the pre-war water supplies were available, while at least 68% of the road network has been damaged.

HOW WILL GAZA FEED ITSELF?

More than half of Gaza's agricultural land, crucial for feeding the war-ravaged territory's hungry population, has been degraded by conflict, satellite images analyzed by the United Nations show.

The data reveals a rise in the destruction of orchards, field crops and vegetables in the Palestinian enclave, where hunger is widespread after 15 months of Israeli bombardment.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said last year that 15,000 cattle, or over 95%, of the total had been slaughtered or died since the conflict began and nearly half the sheep.

WHAT ABOUT SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES, RELIGIOUS BUILDINGS?

Palestinian data shows that the conflict has led to the destruction of over 200 government facilities, 136 schools and universities, 823 mosques and three churches. Many hospitals have been damaged during the conflict, with only 17 out of 36 units partially functional as of January, the UN humanitarian office's report showed.

Amnesty International's Crisis Evidence Lab has highlighted the extent of destruction along Gaza's eastern boundary. As of May 2024, over 90% of the buildings in this area, including more than 3,500 structures, were either destroyed or severely damaged.