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Oil Drops as Weak China Factory Data Fan Demand Concerns

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Drops as Weak China Factory Data Fan Demand Concerns

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices dropped on Monday, as weak manufacturing data from China and Japan for July weighed on the outlook for demand, while investors braced for this week's meeting of officials from OPEC and other top producers on supply adjustments.

Brent crude futures were down $1.19, or 1.1%, at $102.78 a barrel at 0212 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $97.19 a barrel, down $1.43, or 1.5%.

Fresh COVID-19 lockdowns snuffed out a brief recovery seen in June for factory activity in China, the world's largest crude oil importer. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in July from 51.7 in the previous month, well below analysts' expectations, data showed on Monday.

Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest rate in 10 months in July, data showed on Monday.

"China's disappointing manufacturing PMI is the primary factor that pressed on oil prices today," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said.

"The data shows a surprising contraction of economic activities, suggesting that the recovery of the world-second-largest economy from the covid lockdowns may not be as positive as previously expected, which darkened the demand outlook of the crude oil markets."

Brent and WTI ended July with their second straight monthly losses for the first time since 2020, as soaring inflation and higher interest rates raise fears of a recession that would erode fuel demand.

ANZ analysts said fuel sales to drivers in Britain were waning, while gasoline demand remained below its five-year average for this time of the year.

Reflecting this, analysts in a Reuters poll reduced for the first time since April their forecast for 2022 average Brent prices to $105.75 a barrel. Their estimate for WTI fell to $101.28.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Wednesday to decide on September output.

Two of eight OPEC+ sources in a Reuters survey said a modest increase for September would be discussed at the Aug. 3 meeting, while the rest said output would likely be held steady.

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Iran Tells World to Get Ready for $200 a Barrel

This general view shows the Humber Refinery, operated by Phillips 66, near South Killingholme, north-east England on March 11, 2026. World oil prices surged more than five percent on March 11 as the Middle East war disrupted crude exports. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP)
This general view shows the Humber Refinery, operated by Phillips 66, near South Killingholme, north-east England on March 11, 2026. World oil prices surged more than five percent on March 11 as the Middle East war disrupted crude exports. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP)
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Iran Tells World to Get Ready for $200 a Barrel

This general view shows the Humber Refinery, operated by Phillips 66, near South Killingholme, north-east England on March 11, 2026. World oil prices surged more than five percent on March 11 as the Middle East war disrupted crude exports. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP)
This general view shows the Humber Refinery, operated by Phillips 66, near South Killingholme, north-east England on March 11, 2026. World oil prices surged more than five percent on March 11 as the Middle East war disrupted crude exports. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP)

Iran's military command said on Wednesday the world should be prepared for oil to hit $200 a barrel, as three more ships came under attack in the blockaded Gulf.

Iran fired at Israel and targets across the Middle East on Wednesday, demonstrating it can still fight back and disrupt energy supplies despite what the Pentagon has described as the most intense US-Israeli strikes yet.

Oil prices that shot up earlier this week have eased and stock markets have rebounded, with investors betting for now that US President Donald Trump will find a quick way to end the war he began alongside Israel nearly two weeks ago.

But so far there has been no let-up on the ground, or any sign that ships can safely sail through the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil has been blockaded behind a narrow channel along the Iranian coast in the worst disruption to energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.

"Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilised," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's military command, said in comments addressed to the United States.

After offices of a bank in Tehran were hit overnight, Zolfaqari also said Iran would respond with attacks on banks that do business with the United States or Israel. People across the Middle East should stay 1,000 metres from banks, he added.

Bahrain's Civil Aviation Affairs said on Wednesday that several Gulf Air aircraft without passengers, and some cargo airplanes, were relocated to alternative airports to "ensure the continuity and efficiency of air operations" during the crisis.

Three more merchant ships were struck in the Gulf by unknown projectiles, according to agencies that monitor maritime security, raising the number of ships reportedly hit since the war began to 14.

Crew were evacuated from a Thai-flagged bulk freighter after an explosion caused a fire. A Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier also sustained damage.

Oil prices, which shot up briefly to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, have since settled around $90, suggesting investors are betting Trump will be able to halt the war and reopen the strait soon.

But governments are still discussing drastic action. The International Energy Agency was expected to recommend releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves, a record.

That would take months and amount to just three weeks' flow through the strait.

Business

Gold Eases as Firmer Dollar, Lingering Inflation Concerns Weigh

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
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Gold Eases as Firmer Dollar, Lingering Inflation Concerns Weigh

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, weighed down by an uptick in the US dollar and looming inflation concerns that boosted the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $5,177.50 per ounce, as of 9:18 a.m. ET (1318 GMT). US gold futures for April delivery fell 1.1% to $5,185.20.

The US dollar index inched up 0.3%. A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, Reuters reported.

"The gold market seems to be in a push-and-pull between safe-haven demand driven by the war and concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold is often seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, but it does not yield interest, making it less attractive when rates are high.

On the geopolitical front, Iran fired at Israel and targets across the Middle East, while at least three ships were hit in the Gulf, demonstrating Tehran can still fight back and disrupt energy supplies despite the most intense US-Israeli strikes yet.

Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded as markets doubted whether the International Energy Agency's plan for a record release of oil reserves could offset potential supply shocks from the conflict. Higher oil prices risk stoking inflation by raising energy and transport costs across the economy.

Data showed the US consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, in line with forecasts and above January's 0.2% increase. CPI rose 2.4% in the year to February, also matching expectations.

Analysts at Standard Chartered noted it is not unusual for gold to experience downside pressure for several weeks amid a need for cash.

"We maintain our positive longer-term view and expect gold to resume its uptrend beyond near-term profit-taking," they added.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 3.1% to $85.67 per ounce, spot platinum lost 0.5% to $2,189.35, and palladium slipped 1.3% to $1,633.30.

Business

Germany, Austria will Release Reserve Oil in Effort to Calm Surging Prices

Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)
Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)
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Germany, Austria will Release Reserve Oil in Effort to Calm Surging Prices

Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)
Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)

Germany and Austria said Wednesday they are releasing parts of their oil reserves following an International Energy Agency request for members to release a record 400 million barrels to help temper energy price spikes due to the Iran war.

Japan also said it will release some of its reserves starting Monday.

Group of Seven energy ministers met Tuesday at IEA headquarters in Paris. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said afterwards they had discussed all available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market, The AP news reported.

The largest-ever previous collective release of emergency stocks by IEA member countries was 182.7 million barrels, in the wake of the energy shock prompted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

IEA members currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

Germany’s economy minister Katherina Reiche said the country would release parts of its oil reserves following the IEA request “to release oil reserves amounting to 400 million barrels, which is a good 54 million tons.”

She added it would take a couple of days before the delivery of the first quantities.

“Germany stands behind the IEA’s most important principle of mutual solidarity," Reiche said.

In response to US and Israeli strikes, Iran has attacked commercial ships across the Persian Gulf, escalating a campaign of squeezing the oil-rich region as global energy concerns mount. Iran has effectively stopped cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of all oil is shipped from the Persian Gulf toward the Indian Ocean.

Iran has also targeted oil fields and refineries in Gulf Arab nations, aiming at generating enough global economic pain to pressure the United States and Israel to end their strikes. Reports of sea mines allegedly laid by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have also fueled concerns about the security of international energy supplies.

G7 energy ministers on Tuesday announced they supported in principle “the implementation of proactive measures to address the situation, including the use of strategic reserves.”

According to the IEA, export volumes of crude and refined products are currently at less than 10% of pre-war levels.

Austrian Economy Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said his country was releasing part of the emergency oil reserve and extending the national strategic gas reserve, adding: “One thing is clear: in a crisis, there must be no crisis winners at the expense of commuters and businesses.”

The German government also said it will introduce a measure to allow gas stations in Germany to raise fuel prices no more than once a day. The federal government wants to introduce this as quickly as possible, Reiche said.

In Austria, starting Monday, price increases at gas stations will be allowed only three times a week, the country’s economy minister said.