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OPEC+ JTC Raises 2022 Oil Market Surplus Forecast

OPEC+ sees oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November. (Reuters)
OPEC+ sees oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ JTC Raises 2022 Oil Market Surplus Forecast

OPEC+ sees oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November. (Reuters)
OPEC+ sees oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November. (Reuters)

The oil market is likely to have a surplus greater than forecast earlier this year amid pressures from rising energy costs and tightening monetary policy that decreased demand for oil, OPEC + said in a report on Wednesday.

The report comes days ahead of an OPEC+ policy meeting on Sept. 5 and over a week after OPEC leader Saudi Arabia said the group may cut oil output.

The Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which met on Wednesday, advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, collectively known as the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, on market fundamentals.

Last week, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC stands ready to cut output to correct a recent oil price decline driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply.

Oil prices have been extremely volatile in recent weeks. While Prince Abdulaziz’s comments helped propel prices to a one-month high above $105 a barrel on Monday, Brent crude on Wednesday traded $10 a barrel below those levels, on expectations for lower demand.

At its last meeting, OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets by 100,000 bpd for September, having unwound record cuts of about 10 million bpd that it agreed in 2020 to help counter the impact of the pandemic.

The JTC report said oil demand - which it sees growing 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), this year - faces major uncertainties particularly from rising inflation and tightening monetary policy, which are eating in to consumers’ budgets.

“Rising energy prices pose another risk going forward,” the report said. “The latter may lead to a more significant reduction in consumption than currently anticipated, especially towards the end of the year.”

The oil market surplus this year reaching 900,000 bpd, up 100,000 bpd from its previous forecast, the report seen by Reuters showed.

Under its base case scenario, the JTC sees the oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November.

OPEC+ also expects a surplus of 900,000 bpd next year under its base scenario, the report showed.

Meanwhile, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday that OPEC oil output rose in August to its highest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020 as Libyan facilities recovered from unrest and Gulf members raised output to unwind a production cut deal with allies.

OPEC has pumped 29.58 million bpd in August, the survey found, up 690,000 bpd from July and the highest since April 2020, according to the survey.

With many producers lacking the capacity to raise output due to insufficient oilfield investment, the 10 OPEC members managed a 300,000 bpd increase from July and are still pumping far less than called for, the survey found.

Output from the 10 members was 1.4 million bpd below the August target, versus a 1.3 million bpd shortfall in July.

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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.