'Transformation' Beckons for Embattled Credit Suisse

A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
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'Transformation' Beckons for Embattled Credit Suisse

A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP

Battered by a series of scandals, rumors of financial trouble and plunging shares, Credit Suisse is preparing "transformation plans" to restore confidence in the Swiss banking giant.

Ulrich Koerner, who took over as chief executive in August, is due to present the strategic review on October 27, AFP said.

With Switzerland's second-biggest bank refraining from revealing its intentions, speculation about its incoming strategy has been swirling.

- Divest or raise capital? -Andreas Venditti, an analyst at Swiss investment firm Vontobel, said "a capital increase appears increasingly likely" for Credit Suisse.

In a note to clients, Venditti estimates that amount needed at four billion Swiss francs ($4 billion).

Investors fear that such a move would dilute the value of bank shares.

Its stock price has shed 70 percent since the March 2021 collapse of British financial firm Greensill. Credit Suisse was heavily exposed to the group.

Carlo Lombardini, a lawyer and professor of banking law at the University of Lausanne, said a capital injection would leave a "bitter taste" for shareholders.

"But they probably don't have a choice," Lombardini told AFP.

The bank will have to raise funds from shareholders to finance layoffs and the cost of restructuring, he said.

Another option would be for the bank to sell assets.

"It's a tough choice," said David Benamou, investment director at Axiom Alternative Investments, noting that it would hurt the bank's future revenues.

"Market conditions are tight and a seller who is forced to sell usually does not get a favorable price," Benamou said.

Analysts at Jefferies, a financial services firm, said "asset sales alone are unlikely to be the solution to the potential capital shortfall problem".

But, they added, it "could be a first step and buy time until shares recover and the outlook gets better, at which time a capital raise, if needed, would be a less dilutive and more acceptable option".

- Is it a takeover target? -Credit Suisse shares have rebounded after sinking to a record low of 3.518 Swiss francs on Monday, showing that markets are giving it "a chance to put together a solid plan", said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote bank.

With its market value melting by 10 billion Swiss francs earlier this week, Credit Suisse became "a very attractive target for banks that would like to buy a nice wealth management branch", said Benamou.

But Credit Suisse has the means to remain independent, he said, and any bid could face political resistance.

"I think the Swiss want Credit Suisse to remain Swiss," Benamou said.

- Is it a 'Lehman moment'? -In addition to the $10 billion exposure to Greensill, the implosion of US fund Archegos cost Credit Suisse $5 billion.

On top of that, Credit Suisse was fined $475 million by US and British authorities in October over loans to state-owned companies in Mozambique.

Koerner, who took the reins in August with the mammoth task of revitalizing the bank, sent an internal message to reassure staff last week, saying Credit Suisse had a "strong capital base and liquidity position".

But investors concerns reached fever pitch last weekend with rumors on social media that the bank may be on the brink of a "Lehman moment" -- a reference to the US investment firm whose disintegration precipitated the 2008 global financial crisis.

This triggered Monday's stock plunge as well as an increase in the cost of buying insurance against Credit Suisse defaulting on its debt.

Analysts, however, have played down concerns that the Swiss bank could follow in the footsteps of Lehman Brothers, stressing that it was "too big to fail" and the government would not let it to collapse.

The Swiss government rescued Credit Suisse rival UBS in 2008 when it teamed up with the central bank to set up a fund that absorbed the group's toxic assets.

Benamou said a state intervention for Credit Suisse was unlikely as banks have been required to put aside enough cash to withstand a new crisis following the 2008 financial shock.

In an effort to reassure markets, Credit Suisse announced plans on Friday to buy back up to $3 billion of debt.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.