Analysts: Iran's 'Civil War' Warning May Presage Bloodier Crackdown

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
TT

Analysts: Iran's 'Civil War' Warning May Presage Bloodier Crackdown

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown

Iran has accused foreign foes of trying to spark "civil war" by stoking the protests over Mahsa Amini's death -- harsh language that, analysts warn, could presage an even bloodier crackdown.

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown since Wednesday, when assailants on motorcycles gunned down nine people -- including a woman and two boys aged nine and 13 -- in two mysterious attacks.

Officials in Iran were quick to accuse "terrorists" backed by its Western enemies of being behind the attacks in the southern cities of Izeh and Isfahan, which authorities said also left dead two security personnel.

It was the second attack Iran has blamed on what it labels terrorists since the protests erupted, after at least 13 people were killed at a shrine in Shiraz, another city in southern Iran, in an October 26 mass shooting claimed by ISIS.

Analysts say however that, regardless of who carried out the latest attacks, they could result in an even bloodier response to the protests that erupted after Amini's death on September 16, following her arrest for an alleged breach of Iran's dress code for women.

"We don't have a good sense of what happened in Izeh and Isfahan -- was it a terrorist group, or potentially the regime itself?" said Henry Rome, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute.

"Either way, the government will probably use the attacks to send the message that the protests are undermining national security and opening the door for Western-backed terrorism," he told AFP.

"The government is likely attempting to tap into fears that Iran could be on the path to civil war and that stronger action is needed."

Following Wednesday's twin attacks, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abollahian accused Israel and its Western allies of plotting a "civil war" in Iran.

Security services, Israel and Western politicians had "made plans for a civil war and the destruction and disintegration of Iran", he tweeted, adding that they "must know that Iran is not Libya or Sudan".

Fars news agency, which is close to Iran's authorities, said Wednesday's attacks showed "those who want to dismantle the country are aiming to incite a civil war".

At least 342 people, including 43 children and 26 women, have been killed in the crackdown since Amini's death, the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights said Wednesday.

Protesters had been killed in 22 of Iran's 31 provinces, it said, including 123 in Sistan-Baluchistan and 32 in Kurdistan.

The regime's crackdown in the wake of the attack in Izeh, a city in ethnically diverse Khuzestan province, "follows a broader trend line of greater police brutality in historically restive provinces, particularly those with large populations of marginalized ethnic minorities", said Kita Fitzpatrick, an Iran analyst at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute.

Groups like ISIS "may very well be attempting to capitalize on protests to carry out attacks within Iranian borders," she told AFP.

But, she added, some analysts are observing inconsistencies between recent attacks in Iran and typical ISIS attacks.

"The regime will likely seek to exploit these attacks, regardless, and leverage them to justify cracking down on ongoing unrest."



UK PM's Top Aide Quits over Mandelson-Epstein Scandal

FILE PHOTO: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with Britain's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson during a welcome reception at the ambassador's residence on February 26, 2025, in Washington, DC, US. Carl Court/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with Britain's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson during a welcome reception at the ambassador's residence on February 26, 2025, in Washington, DC, US. Carl Court/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
TT

UK PM's Top Aide Quits over Mandelson-Epstein Scandal

FILE PHOTO: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with Britain's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson during a welcome reception at the ambassador's residence on February 26, 2025, in Washington, DC, US. Carl Court/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with Britain's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson during a welcome reception at the ambassador's residence on February 26, 2025, in Washington, DC, US. Carl Court/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, quit on Sunday, saying he took responsibility for advising Starmer to name Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US despite his known links to Jeffrey Epstein.

After new files revealed the depth of the Labour veteran's relationship with the late sex offender, Starmer is facing what is widely seen as the gravest crisis of his 18 months in power over his decision to send Mandelson to Washington in 2024, Reuters reported.

The loss of McSweeney, 48, a strategist who was instrumental in Starmer's rise to power, is the latest in a series of setbacks, less than two years after the Labour Party won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in modern British history.

With polls showing Starmer is hugely unpopular with voters after a series of embarrassing U-turns, some in his own party are openly questioning his judgment and his future, and it remains to be seen whether McSweeney's exit will be enough to silence critics.

The files released in the US on January 30 sparked a police investigation for misconduct in office over indications that Mandelson leaked market-sensitive information to Epstein when he was a government minister during the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010.

In a statement, McSweeney said: "The decision to ⁠appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself.
"When asked, I advised the Prime Minister to make that appointment and I take full responsibility for that advice."

The leader of the opposition Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, said the resignation was overdue and that "Keir Starmer has to take responsibility for his own terrible decisions".

Nigel Farage, head of the populist Reform UK party, which is leading in the polls, said he believed Starmer's time would soon be up.

Starmer has spent the last week defending McSweeney, a strategy that could prompt further questions about his own judgment. In a statement on Sunday, Starmer said it had been "an honor" working with him.

Many Labour members of parliament had blamed McSweeney for the appointment of Mandelson and the damage caused by the publication of the exchanges between Epstein ⁠and Mandelson. Others have said Starmer must go.

One Labour lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity, said McSweeney's resignation had come too late: "It buys the PM time, but it's still the end of days."

Starmer sacked Mandelson as ambassador in September over his links to Epstein.

The government agreed last week to release virtually all previously private communications between members of his government from the time when Mandelson was being appointed.

That release could come as early as this week, creating a new headache for Starmer just as he hopes to move on. If previously secret messages about how London planned to approach its relationship with Donald Trump are made public, it could damage Starmer's relationship with the US President.

McSweeney had held the role of chief of staff since October 2024, when he was handed the job following the resignation of Sue Gray after a row over pay and donations.

Starmer on Sunday appointed his deputy chiefs of staff, Jill Cuthbertson and Vidhya Alakeson, to serve as joint acting chiefs of staff.


Iran Sentences Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi to 7 More Years in Prison

(FILES) A handout photo provided by the Narges Mohammadi Foundation on October 2, 2023 shows an undated, unlocated photo of Iranian rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi. (Photo by Handout / NARGES MOHAMMADI FOUNDATION / AFP)
(FILES) A handout photo provided by the Narges Mohammadi Foundation on October 2, 2023 shows an undated, unlocated photo of Iranian rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi. (Photo by Handout / NARGES MOHAMMADI FOUNDATION / AFP)
TT

Iran Sentences Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi to 7 More Years in Prison

(FILES) A handout photo provided by the Narges Mohammadi Foundation on October 2, 2023 shows an undated, unlocated photo of Iranian rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi. (Photo by Handout / NARGES MOHAMMADI FOUNDATION / AFP)
(FILES) A handout photo provided by the Narges Mohammadi Foundation on October 2, 2023 shows an undated, unlocated photo of Iranian rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi. (Photo by Handout / NARGES MOHAMMADI FOUNDATION / AFP)

Iran sentenced Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi to over seven more years in prison after she began a hunger strike, supporters said Sunday.

Mohammadi’s supporters cited her lawyer, who spoke to Mohammadi.

The lawyer, Mostafa Nili, confirmed the sentence on X, saying it had been handed down Saturday by a Revolutionary Court in the city of Mashhad. Such courts typically issue verdicts with little or no opportunity for defendants to contest their charges.

“She has been sentenced to six years in prison for ‘gathering and collusion’ and one and a half years for propaganda and two-year travel ban,” he wrote, according to The Associated Press.

She received another two years of internal exile to the city of Khosf, some 740 kilometers (460 miles) southeast of Tehran, the capital, the lawyer added.

Supporters say Mohammadi has been on a hunger strike since Feb. 2. She had been arrested in December at a ceremony honoring Khosrow Alikordi, a 46-year-old Iranian lawyer and human rights advocate who had been based in Mashhad. Footage from the demonstration showed her shouting, demanding justice for Alikordi and others.

Supporters had warned for months before her December arrest that Mohammadi, 53, was at risk of being put back into prison after she received a furlough in December 2024 over medical concerns.

While that was to be only three weeks, Mohammadi’s time out of prison lengthened, possibly as activists and Western powers pushed Iran to keep her free. She remained out even during the 12-day war in June between Iran and Israel.

Mohammadi still kept up her activism with public protests and international media appearances, including even demonstrating at one point in front of Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, where she had been held.

Mohammadi had been serving 13 years and nine months on charges of collusion against state security and propaganda against Iran’s government.

She also had backed the nationwide protests sparked by the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, which have seen women openly defy the government by not wearing the hijab.

Mohammadi suffered multiple heart attacks while imprisoned before undergoing emergency surgery in 2022, her supporters say. Her lawyer in late 2024 revealed doctors had found a bone lesion that they feared could be cancerous that later was removed.

“Considering her illnesses, it is expected that she will be temporarily released on bail so that she can receive treatment,” Nili wrote.

However, Iranian officials have been signaling a harder line against all dissent since the recent demonstrations. Speaking on Sunday, Iranian judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei made comments suggesting harsh prison sentences awaited many.

“Look at some individuals who once were with the revolution and accompanied the revolution," he said. "Today, what they are saying, what they are writing, what statements they issue, they are unfortunate, they are forlorn (and) they will face damage.”


Nigeria's President to Make a Sate Visit to the UK in March

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu gives a joint statement with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Aug. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu gives a joint statement with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Aug. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)
TT

Nigeria's President to Make a Sate Visit to the UK in March

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu gives a joint statement with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Aug. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu gives a joint statement with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Aug. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

Nigeria’s president is set to make a state visit to the UK in March, the first such trip by a Nigerian leader in almost four decades, Britain’s Buckingham Palace said Sunday.

Officials said President Bola Tinubu and first lady Oluremi Tinubu will travel to the UK on March 18 and 19, The AP news reported.

King Charles III and Queen Camilla will host them at Windsor Castle. Full details of the visit are expected at a later date.

Charles visited Nigeria, a Commonwealth country, four times from 1990 to 2018 before he became king. He previously received Tinubu at Buckingham Palace in September 2024.m

Previous state visits by a Nigerian leader took place in 1973, 1981 and 1989.

A state visit usually starts with an official reception hosted by the king and includes a carriage procession and a state banquet.

Last year Charles hosted state visits for world leaders including US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.