Saudi Aramco Drops January's Arab Light Prices for Asia 

Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
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Saudi Aramco Drops January's Arab Light Prices for Asia 

Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 

Aramco announced that Saudi Arabia has dropped the January official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers to a 10-month low.  

The price is $2.20 a barrel below official selling prices for December, so the demand outlook remains fragile.  

The largest oil exporter set the official selling price of Arab Light crude to northwest Europe at $0.10 lower than Brent crude in January, $1.80 less than its December price.  

The US selling price remained unchanged from last month at $6.35 above the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for January.  

OPEC+ decision and market stability 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, also known as OPEC+, maintained their previous crude output target during their Sunday virtual meeting.  

OPEC+ kept their oil production targets unchanged before the European Union's ban on Russian crude took effect, and the G7 imposed a maximum price on its prices, starting Monday. 

Oil prices rose on Monday after the OPEC+ decision, and in a positive sign of fuel demand from the largest oil importer in the world, as more Chinese cities relaxed COVID-19 restrictions at the beginning of the week.  

Brent crude futures settled down $2.89, or 3.4 percent, at $82.68 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.05, or 3.8 percent, to $76.93 a barrel. Both benchmarks had earlier risen more than $2 before reversing direction.  

"The decision ... is not a surprise, given the uncertainty in the market over the impact of the Dec. 5 EU Russia crude oil import ban and the G7 price cap," said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of consultancy Wood Mackenzie told Reuters.  

"In addition, the producers' group faces downside risk from the potential for weakening global economic growth and China's zero COVID policy."  

Chinese business and manufacturing sectors, the second largest economy in the world, have been affected this year by the strict COVID-19 restrictions.  

Russian oil embargo 

The European ban prohibiting Russian crude oil imports by sea entered into force as of Monday, with limited exceptions for Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.  

The EU and the G7 also agreed on Friday to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, a policy aimed at Moscow's other customers, and it entered into effect on Monday, too.  

An EU document showed that the price cap would be reviewed every two months, using Russian oil prices provided by the International Energy Agency as a reference.  

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia is preparing a response to the decision of Western countries to impose a price ceiling on its oil.  

Peskov announced that a decision is being taken, and Russia would not recognize "any ceilings," adding that adopting such choices is "a step towards destabilizing the world energy market."  

Meanwhile, Japan implemented a price cap on Russian crude oil under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law.  

Bloomberg stated, quoting the Japanese Finance Ministry of Finance, that Russian oil traded above the limit will be effectively banned, excluding crude oil imported from the Sakhalin-2 plant. 



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.