Democrats have good reason to be happy with 2022. In Congress and at the polls, they had an extraordinary year. Led by President Joe Biden, Congress passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, a $750 billion package to fight climate change and reduce the cost of prescription drugs for senior citizens, a $52 billion measure to revive the US semiconductor industry, and the first gun safety law in 30 years.
Internationally, President Biden led the world in helping Ukraine push back the Russian invasion and killed al-Qaeda terrorist leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Quite a record for President Biden and his party, which did it all with a tiny majority in the House of Representatives and the slimmest possible majority in the Senate.
But if US history is to be believed, the President's party loses – and loses big – at the polls two years into his term. The thing is...that's not what happened. Instead of picking up 30, 40, or more seats in the House, the Republicans only gained nine. In the Senate, the Democrats did even better. Rather than losing seats, they picked up one.
Taken together, that's virtually unheard of. Analysts say that popular opposition to the Supreme Court's overruling of Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the right to abortion, and incompetent, even buffoonish, candidates backed by former President Donald Trump drove the Democrats' strong electoral performance.
But 2023 ain't gonna be 2022...to say the least. Republicans now control the House, and that's going to make a huge difference.
Democrats will lose the ability to drive bills through the lower chamber, and Republicans will unleash their House committees to investigate everything from serious issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal and migrants and drugs crossing America's borders to conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden, Covid vaccines, and virtually anything else they can think of.
The Democrats still control the Senate, but not with a filibuster-proof margin – so moving legislation will remain difficult and require compromise with Republicans.
Given the headwinds, Democrats options are limited. They'll have to curtail their agenda and be prepared to defend the Biden Administration. Nevertheless, there are still things the Democrats can achieve.
First, their ability to approve the President's nominees for executive branch positions and federal judgeships – which come with life-long appointments – has grown substantially. Even though the Democrats only upped their Senate majority by one seat, from 50 to 51, that one seat makes a big difference. In a 50/50 Senate, committees were divided 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans. But now the Democrats will have a majority on every Senate Committee and will be able to advance President Biden's nominees on their own, speeding the process in the usually plodding Senate.
Second, given that legislating in a divided Congress will be exceptionally more difficult, Democrats' attention will turn to getting the most out of President Biden's executive powers. They'll seek to work with the President and the various cabinet departments to see that laws are implemented and money is spent in accordance with their shared priorities.
Democrats will try to contrast their legislative successes of 2022 in which they seek to use the power of government to help people and grow the economy against Republican efforts in 2023 to cut taxes and shrink the size of the government. This debate has echoed in the United States across many decades and will do so again next year on key issues, including climate change, healthcare, transportation, energy, and education.
Third, just as Republicans will utilize House committees to investigate President Biden's agenda, family, and cabinet members, the Democrats will seek to awaken the investigative powers of Senate committees. Unlike House Republicans, however, they don't have an Administration of the opposite party to rake over the coals. Even if grass roots Democrats think Congress should still try to expose excesses of the former Trump Administration, the general public may be done looking through the rear-view mirror – so Senate Democratic-run committees will have to pick their battles carefully.
Finally, during the last decade, Democrats were relatively unified when in the majority. While there were certainly divisions between the far left and moderates, in the end, they usually stood together on big picture items even with their slim majorities.
That may not be the case with Republicans. Their Trumpian far-right, now with even more members, has much greater power in the Republican Party and is not particularly interested in governing. The future Republican Speaker of the House will struggle to round up 218 Republican votes to pass key appropriations bills or raise the debt ceiling. This means Speaker Kevin McCarthy – or whoever wins that post – will likely have to turn to Democrats to keep the government operating and the country out of default...and the new House Democratic minority leadership will be waiting to exploit the division to press for greater domestic spending on health, education, and the environment.
We shouldn't be surprised if we see a meltdown or two in the House Republican conference, possibly leading to a government shutdown, before major bills pass.
Even though Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided at home – especially on former President Trump's twisted efforts to overturn the election of 2020 – the parties have often been more united on foreign policy. For the most part, they both support efforts to help Ukraine battle Russia, share concerns about the Iranian nuclear program and support popular demonstrators, and recognize the challenges posed by China.
But there are definitely distinctions. Some on the Republican MAGA right have had sympathies for Vladimir Putin's Russia, and Republican leadership in the Senate and House will look for ways to placate them with enhanced oversight and legislative gimmicks which will seem like they are pushing back against Biden's policy when they really aren't.
On Iran, disagreements about former President Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal have, for the time being, given way to bipartisan support for the women and men taking on the Iranian regime. But Iran's expanding nuclear program and its growing stockpile of enriched uranium will likely capture American attention once again, reinvigorating disputes over how to keep the Ayatollahs from building an atomic weapon.
And while both parties are increasingly concerned about China's threats against Taiwan and its expanding military presence in the South China Sea, congressional Republicans are decidedly more hawkish.
No discussion of 2023 would be complete without talking about 2024. In America, the next election begins as soon as the last one ends and both parties will begin the process of selecting their presidential candidates in the coming year.
On the Democratic side, President Biden is the obvious front-runner and almost certainly will be the party's candidate. But he is 80 years old and whispers of concern across the party may grow.
For Republicans, their top candidate remains former President Trump. But he is substantially weakened given his party's poor performance in the 2022 elections and may face indictments in the coming year for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, his improper possession and storage of classified documents, and his business practices, for which his company has already been criminally convicted. Regardless, many believe Trump can again win his party's nomination among a divided Republican field, potentially teeing up a rematch with President Biden.
So, buckle in and put your tray tables in their upright and locked position because 2023 is going to be a bumpy political year. We'll likely see fights over policy and politics, possible indictment of a former president, and even a government shutdown or two. Save me a seat and buy me some popcorn. Let's watch together.
*Jason Steinbaum worked on Capitol Hill for more than three decades, during which time he served as Staff Director of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
